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/Title (If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in Developing Countries � PLOS Currents Disasters)
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BT 15.000 718.042 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement )] TJ ET
BT 15.000 693.094 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in )] TJ ET
BT 15.000 668.146 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(Developing Countries)] TJ ET
Q
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BT 15.000 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(June 13, 2016)] TJ ET
BT 74.846 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(�)] TJ ET
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BT 79.721 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(Discussion)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Junko Mochizuki)] TJ ET
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BT 98.312 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
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BT 103.733 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Adriana Keating)] TJ ET
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BT 173.105 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
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BT 178.526 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Reinhard Mechler)] TJ ET
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BT 255.463 642.187 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
BT 260.281 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
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BT 265.702 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Callahan Egan)] TJ ET
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BT 329.653 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
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BT 335.074 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 627.127 Td /F4 9.0 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
BT 31.254 627.127 Td /F1 9.0 Tf  [( International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 615.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Mochizuki J, Keating A, Mechler R, Egan C, Hochrainer-Stigler S. If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 603.501 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in Developing Countries. PLOS Currents Disasters. 2016 Jun 13 . Edition )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 591.596 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(1. doi: 10.1371/currents.dis.ab5922892b54a68f7315e967f6dd3406.)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 562.493 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Abstract)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 542.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Introduction: With a renewed emphasis on evidence-based risk sensitive investment promoted under the Sendai Framework for )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 530.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, technical demands for analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis \(CBA\) will )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 518.730 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(likely increase in the foreseeable future. This begs a number of pragmatic questions such as whether or not sophisticated )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 506.825 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(quantitative appraisal tools are effective in raising policy awareness and what alternatives are available.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 487.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Method: This article briefly reviews current practices of analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and identifies )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 475.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(issues associated with its applications in small scale community based DRR interventions.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 456.111 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Results: The article illustrate that while best scientific knowledge should inform policy and practice in principle, it should not )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 444.206 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(create an unrealistic expectation that the�state-of-the art�methods must be used in all cases, especially for small scale DRR )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 432.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(interventions in developing countries, where data and resource limitations and uncertainty are high, and complex interaction and )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 420.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(feedback may exist between DRR investment, community response and longer-term development outcome.�)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 400.992 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Discussion: Alternative and more participatory approaches for DRR appraisals are suggested which includes participatory )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 389.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(serious games that are increasingly being used to raise awareness and identify pragmatic strategies for change that are needed )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 377.182 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(to bring about successful uptake of DRR investment and implementation of DRR mainstreaming.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 340.580 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Funding Statement)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 320.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Partial funding support by Zurich Insurance for work conducted as part of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance is gratefully )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 308.721 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(acknowledged.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 279.618 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Introduction)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 259.664 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Amid the rising costs of natural disasters observed globally, emerging international consensus holds that a primary remedy to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 247.759 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(the lack of appropriate risk management � and ex-ante disaster risk reduction \(DRR\) investment in particular � can be found in )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 235.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(better communication regarding the cost-effectiveness of DRR investment )] TJ ET
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BT 347.581 237.362 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
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BT 352.399 239.743 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
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BT 354.809 237.362 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(2)] TJ ET
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BT 359.627 235.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. Over the past two decades, natural disasters )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 223.950 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(have affected a total of 4.4 billion people worldwide, causing as much as $2 trillion in economic losses )] TJ ET
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BT 467.906 225.457 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(3)] TJ ET
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BT 472.724 223.950 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. By 2030, accelerating )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 212.045 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(urbanization, continued asset build-up in hazard-prone areas and other adverse consequences of poorly managed development )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 200.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(are expected to double the economic losses from natural disasters globally)] TJ ET
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BT 348.683 201.647 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(4)] TJ ET
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BT 353.501 200.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. To curtail these trends in risk creation, ex-ante )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 188.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(quantification, evaluation and the integration of disaster risk into development are increasingly seen as crucial. �DRR investment )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 176.331 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(saves� has been a major slogan in such discourse, where the lack of awareness and scientific evidence are seen as the major )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 164.426 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(obstacles hindering the rational decision to invest in ex-ante protection of our wellbeing, livelihoods and productive assets)] TJ ET
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BT 549.201 165.933 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(5)] TJ ET
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BT 554.020 164.426 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 145.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(The general premise that improved risk knowledge will lead naturally to enhanced DRR investment is not only theoretically )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 133.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(debatable)] TJ ET
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BT 69.072 134.624 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(6)] TJ ET
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BT 73.891 133.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( as has been critiqued by numerous behavioural and political economic studies which explain why we continue to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(underinvest in DRR )] TJ ET
BT 113.483 121.212 Td /F5 9.8 Tf  [(despite)] TJ ET
BT 144.917 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( the knowledge of its net benefits)] TJ ET
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BT 286.916 122.719 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(7)] TJ ET
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BT 291.735 125.100 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
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BT 294.144 122.719 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(8)] TJ ET
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BT 298.963 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( ; it has also created a practical issue in which increasingly )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 109.307 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(sophisticated enquiries � often beyond the capacities of developing country practitioners � are called for to present scientific )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 97.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(evidence regarding the costs and benefits of DRR investment )] TJ ET
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BT 293.956 98.909 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(9)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 298.774 97.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( . While the concept and use of evidence-based assessments is )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 85.497 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(advocated, the practical challenges of implementing such analyses in developing country contexts are, until today, insufficiently )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 73.593 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(acknowledged.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 54.188 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(A quantitative method known as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis \(CBA\) is often considered the state-of-the-art in the appraisal )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 42.283 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(of DRR policies, in which probability distributions relating hazard return periods and loss estimates are calculated )] TJ ET
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BT 515.554 43.790 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(10)] TJ ET
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BT 525.191 42.283 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. The use of )] TJ ET
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BT 15.000 718.042 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement )] TJ ET
BT 15.000 693.094 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in )] TJ ET
BT 15.000 668.146 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(Developing Countries)] TJ ET
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BT 15.000 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(June 13, 2016)] TJ ET
BT 74.846 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(�)] TJ ET
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BT 79.721 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(Discussion)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Junko Mochizuki)] TJ ET
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BT 98.312 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
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BT 103.733 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Adriana Keating)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 173.105 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 178.526 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Reinhard Mechler)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 255.463 642.187 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
BT 260.281 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 265.702 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Callahan Egan)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 329.653 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 335.074 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 627.127 Td /F4 9.0 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
BT 31.254 627.127 Td /F1 9.0 Tf  [( International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 615.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Mochizuki J, Keating A, Mechler R, Egan C, Hochrainer-Stigler S. If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 603.501 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in Developing Countries. PLOS Currents Disasters. 2016 Jun 13 . Edition )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 591.596 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(1. doi: 10.1371/currents.dis.ab5922892b54a68f7315e967f6dd3406.)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 562.493 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Abstract)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 542.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Introduction: With a renewed emphasis on evidence-based risk sensitive investment promoted under the Sendai Framework for )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 530.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, technical demands for analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis \(CBA\) will )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 518.730 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(likely increase in the foreseeable future. This begs a number of pragmatic questions such as whether or not sophisticated )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 506.825 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(quantitative appraisal tools are effective in raising policy awareness and what alternatives are available.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 487.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Method: This article briefly reviews current practices of analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and identifies )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 475.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(issues associated with its applications in small scale community based DRR interventions.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 456.111 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Results: The article illustrate that while best scientific knowledge should inform policy and practice in principle, it should not )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 444.206 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(create an unrealistic expectation that the�state-of-the art�methods must be used in all cases, especially for small scale DRR )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 432.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(interventions in developing countries, where data and resource limitations and uncertainty are high, and complex interaction and )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 420.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(feedback may exist between DRR investment, community response and longer-term development outcome.�)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 400.992 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Discussion: Alternative and more participatory approaches for DRR appraisals are suggested which includes participatory )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 389.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(serious games that are increasingly being used to raise awareness and identify pragmatic strategies for change that are needed )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 377.182 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(to bring about successful uptake of DRR investment and implementation of DRR mainstreaming.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 340.580 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Funding Statement)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 320.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Partial funding support by Zurich Insurance for work conducted as part of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance is gratefully )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 308.721 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(acknowledged.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 279.618 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Introduction)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 259.664 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Amid the rising costs of natural disasters observed globally, emerging international consensus holds that a primary remedy to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 247.759 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(the lack of appropriate risk management � and ex-ante disaster risk reduction \(DRR\) investment in particular � can be found in )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 235.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(better communication regarding the cost-effectiveness of DRR investment )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 347.581 237.362 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 352.399 239.743 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 354.809 237.362 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(2)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 359.627 235.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. Over the past two decades, natural disasters )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 223.950 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(have affected a total of 4.4 billion people worldwide, causing as much as $2 trillion in economic losses )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 467.906 225.457 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(3)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 472.724 223.950 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. By 2030, accelerating )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 212.045 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(urbanization, continued asset build-up in hazard-prone areas and other adverse consequences of poorly managed development )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 200.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(are expected to double the economic losses from natural disasters globally)] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 348.683 201.647 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(4)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 353.501 200.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. To curtail these trends in risk creation, ex-ante )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 188.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(quantification, evaluation and the integration of disaster risk into development are increasingly seen as crucial. �DRR investment )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 176.331 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(saves� has been a major slogan in such discourse, where the lack of awareness and scientific evidence are seen as the major )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 164.426 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(obstacles hindering the rational decision to invest in ex-ante protection of our wellbeing, livelihoods and productive assets)] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 549.201 165.933 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(5)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 554.020 164.426 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 145.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(The general premise that improved risk knowledge will lead naturally to enhanced DRR investment is not only theoretically )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 133.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(debatable)] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 69.072 134.624 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(6)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 73.891 133.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( as has been critiqued by numerous behavioural and political economic studies which explain why we continue to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(underinvest in DRR )] TJ ET
BT 113.483 121.212 Td /F5 9.8 Tf  [(despite)] TJ ET
BT 144.917 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( the knowledge of its net benefits)] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 286.916 122.719 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(7)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 291.735 125.100 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 294.144 122.719 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(8)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 298.963 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( ; it has also created a practical issue in which increasingly )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 109.307 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(sophisticated enquiries � often beyond the capacities of developing country practitioners � are called for to present scientific )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 97.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(evidence regarding the costs and benefits of DRR investment )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 293.956 98.909 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(9)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 298.774 97.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( . While the concept and use of evidence-based assessments is )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 85.497 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(advocated, the practical challenges of implementing such analyses in developing country contexts are, until today, insufficiently )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 73.593 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(acknowledged.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 54.188 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(A quantitative method known as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis \(CBA\) is often considered the state-of-the-art in the appraisal )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 42.283 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(of DRR policies, in which probability distributions relating hazard return periods and loss estimates are calculated )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 515.554 43.790 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(10)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 525.191 42.283 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. The use of )] TJ ET
Q
q
15.000 659.406 577.500 78.594 re W n
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 15.000 718.042 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement )] TJ ET
BT 15.000 693.094 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in )] TJ ET
BT 15.000 668.146 Td /F2 21.0 Tf  [(Developing Countries)] TJ ET
Q
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 15.000 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(June 13, 2016)] TJ ET
BT 74.846 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(�)] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 79.721 650.140 Td /F3 9.8 Tf  [(Discussion)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Junko Mochizuki)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 98.312 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 103.733 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Adriana Keating)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 173.105 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 178.526 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Reinhard Mechler)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 255.463 642.187 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
BT 260.281 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 265.702 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Callahan Egan)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 329.653 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(, )] TJ ET
0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 335.074 638.299 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 26.250 627.127 Td /F4 9.0 Tf  [(1)] TJ ET
BT 31.254 627.127 Td /F1 9.0 Tf  [( International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 615.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Mochizuki J, Keating A, Mechler R, Egan C, Hochrainer-Stigler S. If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 603.501 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in Developing Countries. PLOS Currents Disasters. 2016 Jun 13 . Edition )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 591.596 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(1. doi: 10.1371/currents.dis.ab5922892b54a68f7315e967f6dd3406.)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 562.493 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Abstract)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 542.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Introduction: With a renewed emphasis on evidence-based risk sensitive investment promoted under the Sendai Framework for )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 530.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, technical demands for analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis \(CBA\) will )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 518.730 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(likely increase in the foreseeable future. This begs a number of pragmatic questions such as whether or not sophisticated )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 506.825 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(quantitative appraisal tools are effective in raising policy awareness and what alternatives are available.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 487.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Method: This article briefly reviews current practices of analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and identifies )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 475.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(issues associated with its applications in small scale community based DRR interventions.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 456.111 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Results: The article illustrate that while best scientific knowledge should inform policy and practice in principle, it should not )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 444.206 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(create an unrealistic expectation that the�state-of-the art�methods must be used in all cases, especially for small scale DRR )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 432.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(interventions in developing countries, where data and resource limitations and uncertainty are high, and complex interaction and )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 420.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(feedback may exist between DRR investment, community response and longer-term development outcome.�)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 400.992 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Discussion: Alternative and more participatory approaches for DRR appraisals are suggested which includes participatory )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 389.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(serious games that are increasingly being used to raise awareness and identify pragmatic strategies for change that are needed )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 377.182 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(to bring about successful uptake of DRR investment and implementation of DRR mainstreaming.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 340.580 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Funding Statement)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 320.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Partial funding support by Zurich Insurance for work conducted as part of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance is gratefully )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 308.721 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(acknowledged.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 279.618 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Introduction)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 259.664 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Amid the rising costs of natural disasters observed globally, emerging international consensus holds that a primary remedy to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 247.759 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(the lack of appropriate risk management � and ex-ante disaster risk reduction \(DRR\) investment in particular � can be found in )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 235.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(better communication regarding the cost-effectiveness of DRR investment )] TJ ET
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BT 354.809 237.362 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(2)] TJ ET
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BT 359.627 235.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. Over the past two decades, natural disasters )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 223.950 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(have affected a total of 4.4 billion people worldwide, causing as much as $2 trillion in economic losses )] TJ ET
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BT 467.906 225.457 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(3)] TJ ET
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BT 472.724 223.950 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. By 2030, accelerating )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 212.045 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(urbanization, continued asset build-up in hazard-prone areas and other adverse consequences of poorly managed development )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 200.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(are expected to double the economic losses from natural disasters globally)] TJ ET
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BT 348.683 201.647 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(4)] TJ ET
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BT 353.501 200.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. To curtail these trends in risk creation, ex-ante )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 188.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(quantification, evaluation and the integration of disaster risk into development are increasingly seen as crucial. �DRR investment )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 176.331 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(saves� has been a major slogan in such discourse, where the lack of awareness and scientific evidence are seen as the major )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 164.426 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(obstacles hindering the rational decision to invest in ex-ante protection of our wellbeing, livelihoods and productive assets)] TJ ET
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BT 549.201 165.933 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(5)] TJ ET
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BT 554.020 164.426 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 145.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(The general premise that improved risk knowledge will lead naturally to enhanced DRR investment is not only theoretically )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 133.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(debatable)] TJ ET
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BT 69.072 134.624 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(6)] TJ ET
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BT 73.891 133.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( as has been critiqued by numerous behavioural and political economic studies which explain why we continue to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(underinvest in DRR )] TJ ET
BT 113.483 121.212 Td /F5 9.8 Tf  [(despite)] TJ ET
BT 144.917 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( the knowledge of its net benefits)] TJ ET
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BT 286.916 122.719 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(7)] TJ ET
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BT 291.735 125.100 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
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BT 294.144 122.719 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(8)] TJ ET
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BT 298.963 121.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( ; it has also created a practical issue in which increasingly )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 109.307 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(sophisticated enquiries � often beyond the capacities of developing country practitioners � are called for to present scientific )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 97.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(evidence regarding the costs and benefits of DRR investment )] TJ ET
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BT 293.956 98.909 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(9)] TJ ET
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BT 298.774 97.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( . While the concept and use of evidence-based assessments is )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 85.497 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(advocated, the practical challenges of implementing such analyses in developing country contexts are, until today, insufficiently )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 73.593 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(acknowledged.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 54.188 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(A quantitative method known as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis \(CBA\) is often considered the state-of-the-art in the appraisal )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 42.283 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(of DRR policies, in which probability distributions relating hazard return periods and loss estimates are calculated )] TJ ET
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BT 515.554 43.790 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(10)] TJ ET
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BT 525.191 42.283 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(. The use of )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(questions � such as whether or not sophisticated quantitative appraisal tools are effective in raising policy awareness and what )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(alternatives are available. These questions are particularly germane in the context of developing countries where data and )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(DRR investment, community response and longer-term development outcome.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 628.136 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(When risk-based decision tools should be more than awareness-raising)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(�DRR investment saves� is hardly a new story: good technical evidence exists within developed countries )] TJ ET
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BT 299.377 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( . Moreover, what researchers have learned over the years is )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(that the core issues behind continued under-investment in DRR are more than the lack of knowledge: not only cognitive issues, )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(but behavioural gaps of failing to act, institutional barriers of not having appropriate mandates, and other political economic )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(barriers all hinder DRR uptake. Therefore, using alternative and more sophisticated appraisal approaches )] TJ ET
BT 483.603 560.562 Td /F5 9.8 Tf  [(per se)] TJ ET
BT 510.698 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( is unlikely to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 548.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(help. While CBA has been frequently required by national and international bodies, available evidence suggests this has led to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 536.753 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(limited learning during project appraisal and implementation)] TJ ET
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BT 293.278 536.753 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( .)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(The true utility of appraisal methods such as CBA will likely be realized when it is used for tangible policy and investment )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(decisions rather than mere awareness-raising. However, there are a number of practical challenges for such tangible application )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(in developing countries. The lack of local capacities to collect and analyse hazard-, exposure- and vulnerability information is a )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(major issue: whether downscaling efforts are made to climate hazard estimations or national average parameters are used to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(construct particular cost estimates, these will all contribute to increasing uncertainty bounds, and making proper sense of such )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(uncertainty becomes a big challenge. Moreover, as these efforts require highly sophisticated analytical skills, which are often )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 445.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(handled by external consultants, thereby removing the process of evaluation from community deliberation and learning. )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 434.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Methods such as CBA can be conducted in a participatory manner )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 410.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(the lack of consideration for distributional consequences, limited applicability of shadow pricing, issues of high discount rates )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 398.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(and costing of intangibles )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 361.698 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(At what cost?)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 341.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Given the complexity and uncertainty involved, it is unlikely that such a sophisticated approach will be appropriate for all cases, )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 329.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(especially for small scale DRR project appraisal in developing countries. Missing reliable past disaster damage and loss )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 317.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(estimates, probabilistic assessment of community-based interventions often rely on local knowledge: the establishment of )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 306.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(baseline risk from annual to 2-5 year events may be feasible based on local residents� recollection, however such methods )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 282.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(the risk of extremes.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 262.815 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Furthermore, these issues are compounded when the appraisal is required to integrate the future impact of climate risk, which is )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 227.101 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(uncertainty on top of the existing hazard variability and local exposure and vulnerability dynamics which themselves are often )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 203.292 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(forecast, since the further they need to project into the future, the larger the uncertainty bounds become for hazards, exposure )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 191.387 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(and vulnerability. Finding meaningful interpretations therefore becomes progressively difficult.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 154.784 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(When not all evidence has to be numbered)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 134.830 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(In light of these practical constraints, communities may instead use more locally appropriate methodologies to raise awareness )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 122.925 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(and to plan for improved DRR practice in the context of climate change. Practitioners may raise local awareness regarding the )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 111.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(effectiveness of �soft� DRR measures vs. �hard� DRR measures, by simply comparing the direct damages avoided such as crop )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 99.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(loss, human injury and the deaths avoided based on the knowledge of past disaster events.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 79.711 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Furthermore, interactive methods such as participatory �serious� gaming may be used to address existing barriers and )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 67.806 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(uncertainty. Instead of reducing DRR benefits and costs into a single metric such as B/C ratio and NPV, this type of participatory )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 55.902 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(analysis takes the advantage of its complexity and uncertainty � by turning them into a fun and creative virtual space where )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 43.997 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(community members and practitioners together explore potential solutions for DRR. These system-thinking based tools can be )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(community-scale DRR interventions are increasingly evaluated using this methodology )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(\(NPV\) have routinely been used to justify, and raise awareness for, an increased investment in ex-ante DRR)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(DRR investment, community response and longer-term development outcome.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 628.136 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(When risk-based decision tools should be more than awareness-raising)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(�DRR investment saves� is hardly a new story: good technical evidence exists within developed countries )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(taking are recurrently taking place in developing countries )] TJ ET
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BT 483.603 560.562 Td /F5 9.8 Tf  [(per se)] TJ ET
BT 510.698 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( is unlikely to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 548.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(help. While CBA has been frequently required by national and international bodies, available evidence suggests this has led to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 536.753 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(limited learning during project appraisal and implementation)] TJ ET
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BT 293.278 536.753 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( .)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(The true utility of appraisal methods such as CBA will likely be realized when it is used for tangible policy and investment )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(construct particular cost estimates, these will all contribute to increasing uncertainty bounds, and making proper sense of such )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(uncertainty becomes a big challenge. Moreover, as these efforts require highly sophisticated analytical skills, which are often )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 445.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(handled by external consultants, thereby removing the process of evaluation from community deliberation and learning. )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 434.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Methods such as CBA can be conducted in a participatory manner )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 361.698 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(At what cost?)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 282.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(the risk of extremes.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 262.815 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Furthermore, these issues are compounded when the appraisal is required to integrate the future impact of climate risk, which is )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 111.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(effectiveness of �soft� DRR measures vs. �hard� DRR measures, by simply comparing the direct damages avoided such as crop )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 398.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(evaluation methodologies and building robust empirical evidence in developing countries.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 362.046 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Competing Interests)] TJ ET
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BT 38.132 278.035 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(UNISDR. From Shared Risk to Shared Value �The Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction, Global Assessment Report )] TJ ET
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BT 38.132 246.726 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(UNISDR. Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management. Global Assessment Report on )] TJ ET
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BT 38.132 141.939 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Jasonoff, S. The fifth branch. Science Advisers as Policymakers.1990. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 122.535 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(7.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 122.535 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Kelman, I. Disaster mitigation is cost effective.Background note for World Development Report 2014. )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 64.189 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(9.)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(community adaptation planning such as involving wider sectors in discussions and designing DRM plans based on potential, as )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 553.410 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(inform policy and practice in principle, it should not create an unrealistic expectation that the state-of-the art methods must be )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 541.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(used in all cases. If decision-making tools, such as probabilistic CBAs, are to be useful \(rather than be constraining\), there are )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 517.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(appraisal tools at community levels should be viewed as a vehicle for engagement and learning. We must critically reflect on )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 505.791 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(why we continue to under-invest )] TJ ET
BT 168.230 505.791 Td /F5 9.8 Tf  [(despite)] TJ ET
BT 199.663 505.791 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( our existing knowledge that DRR saves in the longer run, and make adjustments to our )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 493.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(strategies accordingly. Second, for such tools to be useful beyond awareness raising, further efforts are certainly needed to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 481.982 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(systematically develop capacities and to collect locally applicable data in developing countries. Emerging initiatives such as )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 422.458 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(probability all together � we need a nuanced approach when integrating expert and local knowledge and learning for effective )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 410.553 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(co-production of DRR solutions. Further research and capacity building will certainly be helpful to develop and test alternative )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 398.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(evaluation methodologies and building robust empirical evidence in developing countries.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 362.046 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Competing Interests)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 342.092 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 305.489 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(References)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 278.035 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(1.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 278.035 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(UNISDR. From Shared Risk to Shared Value �The Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction, Global Assessment Report )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 266.130 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 246.726 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(2.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 246.726 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(UNISDR. Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management. Global Assessment Report on )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 215.416 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(3.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 215.416 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Kellett, J.Disaster risk reduction makes development sustainable. 2014)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 206.930 Td /F1 7.5 Tf  [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 188.380 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(4.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 188.380 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Izumi, T., and Shaw, R. Disaster Management and Private Sectors: Challenges and Potentials. 2015. Springer.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 168.975 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(5.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 168.975 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(United Nations. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, 2015.)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 160.489 Td /F1 7.5 Tf  [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 141.939 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(6.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 141.939 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Jasonoff, S. The fifth branch. Science Advisers as Policymakers.1990. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 122.535 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(7.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 122.535 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Kelman, I. Disaster mitigation is cost effective.Background note for World Development Report 2014. )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 114.049 Td /F1 7.5 Tf  [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 95.499 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(8.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 95.499 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Meyer, B. Why We Still Fail to Learn from Disasters. In E. Michel-Kerjan and P. Slovic eds. The Irrational Economist, 2010. )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 83.594 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Public Affairs, New York.)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 64.189 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(9.)] TJ ET
BT 38.132 64.189 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Buncle, A. Informing climate-resilient development: the application of cost-benefit analysis \(CBA\) in the Pacific Adaptation to )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 52.284 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Climate Change \(PACC\) programme. Experiences and lessons learned in the application of CBA to PACC demonstration )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(from existing practices and social norms\) or institutional and political barriers that may challenge the implementation of DRR)] TJ ET
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BT 559.975 757.079 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(17)] TJ ET
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BT 569.612 759.460 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 745.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(19)] TJ ET
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BT 35.887 747.555 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
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BT 38.297 745.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(21)] TJ ET
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BT 47.934 747.555 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
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BT 59.981 747.555 Td /F1 8.7 Tf  [(,)] TJ ET
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BT 62.390 745.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf  [(23)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 72.027 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [( . These types of approaches are particularly effective at challenging the many preconceived notions that are at the )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(heart of policy inaction: as a recent study of game-based study in Mozambique, Uganda and Ethiopia show those who saw )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 362.046 Td /F4 12.0 Tf  [(Competing Interests)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 533.178 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(17.)] TJ ET
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0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 26.250 512.788 Td /F1 7.5 Tf  [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET
0.271 0.267 0.267 rg
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BT 43.553 494.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies What is VCA? An introduction to vulnerability and )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 482.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(capacity assessment. 2006)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 462.928 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(19.)] TJ ET
BT 43.553 462.928 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Bachofen, C., Suarez, P. Using games to experience climate risk: Empowering Africa's decision makers. The Hague: Red )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 451.023 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre.2013)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 431.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(20.)] TJ ET
BT 43.553 431.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Bachofen, C., Suarez, P. Steenbergen M. and N. Grist. Can Games Help People Manage the Climate Risks They Face? A )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 419.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(participatory design of educational games. The Hague: Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre.2012)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 400.309 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(21.)] TJ ET
BT 43.553 400.309 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Jones, K. Ludi, E. Carabine, E. Grist, N. Planning for an uncertai future: promoting adaptation to climate change through )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 388.404 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(flexible and forward-looking decision making.2014)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 369.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(22.)] TJ ET
BT 43.553 369.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Vallamor, GB. and Badmos BK. Grazing game: a learning tool for adaptive management in respose to climate variability in )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 357.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(semiarid areas of Ghana. Ecology and Society 21 \(1\): 39. 2016)] TJ ET
BT 26.250 337.690 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(23.)] TJ ET
BT 43.553 337.690 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Langford, K. A game changer: learning and adaption to climate change in Ghana. Aggroforestry World. 2016)] TJ ET
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BT 43.553 318.285 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(McCallum, I. Liu, W. See,L, Mechler, R, Keating, A, Hochrainer-Stigler, S. Mochizuki, J. Fritz, S, Dugar, S. Arestegui, M. )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 306.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Szoenyi, Laso Bayas JC, Burek, P. French, A. Moorthy, I.Technologies to Support Community Flood Disaster Risk Reduction. )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 294.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. Forthcoming.)] TJ ET
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BT 43.553 603.297 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(MMC.Natural hazard mitigation saves: an independent study to assess the future savings from mitigation activities. 2005.)] TJ ET
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BT 43.553 533.178 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Bachofen,C Suarez P, Steenbergen M and Grist N. Can games help people manage the climate risks they face? The )] TJ ET
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0.267 0.267 0.267 rg
BT 26.250 512.788 Td /F1 7.5 Tf  [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET
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BT 43.553 337.690 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Langford, K. A game changer: learning and adaption to climate change in Ghana. Aggroforestry World. 2016)] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 306.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Szoenyi, Laso Bayas JC, Burek, P. French, A. Moorthy, I.Technologies to Support Community Flood Disaster Risk Reduction. )] TJ ET
BT 26.250 294.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. Forthcoming.)] TJ ET
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BT 43.553 704.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(Venton, C C. Cost Benefit Analysis for Community Based Climate and Disaster Risk Management: Synthesis Report. )] TJ ET
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BT 26.250 294.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf  [(International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. Forthcoming.)] TJ ET
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