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Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School Closures in the U.S.. )] TJ ET BT 550.771 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(PLOS )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.438 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Currents Influenza. 2009 Oct 4 . Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.RRN1051.)] TJ ET q 15.000 32.625 577.500 604.432 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 610.335 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Abstract)] TJ ET BT 26.250 590.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School closure is an important component of U.S. pandemic flu mitigation strategy, but has important costs. We give estimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 578.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of both the direct economic and health care impacts for school closure durations of 2, 4, 6, and 12 weeks under a range of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 566.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(assumptions. We find that closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 and $47 billion dollars \(0.1-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(0.3% of GDP\) and lead to a reduction of 6% to 19% in key health care personnel.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 518.064 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(1\) Introduction)] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School closures are an important and controversial part of the U.S. federal governments Community Strategy for Pandemic )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Influenza Mitigation in the United States )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 200.756 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([1])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 211.598 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Closing schools would reduce social contacts and suppress transmission. A recent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(literature review concludes that the direct epidemiological benefits of such a strategy are uncertain and depend on the specifics )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of implementation, but could include a modest \(~15%\) reduction in total cases and a large \(~40%\) reduction in peak attack rates )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 450.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 450.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 431.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Controlling the peak attack rate will be crucial to prevent the U.S. healthcare systems surge capacity from being overwhelmed. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In its model scenario, the Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology \(PCAST\) finds that flu cases may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(demand 50 to 100 percent of the total intensive care unit \(ICU\) capacity in the United States. This is a major threat to a system )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that operates at 80 percent of capacity during normal times )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 283.123 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([3])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 293.965 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 375.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Closing schools is controversial because the epidemiological benefits come with associated costs. With their children out of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 364.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(school, many parents will stay home from work. This absenteeism will lead to significant economic costs. Compounding the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 352.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(problem, some absentees will be health care workers. The most pronounced benefit of school closure is to alleviate pressure on )] TJ ET BT 26.250 340.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the health care system. But if health care absenteeism is high, the systems capacity could be reduced when the virus is most )] TJ ET BT 26.250 328.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(prevalent and the demand for health care services is highest.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(PCAST emphasizes the lack of research on the magnitude of these formidable costs: Although evidence-based estimates of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(such costs are difficult to make and inherently imprecise, they can help to advance the rationality of the debates . . . To that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(end, this paper includes the first detailed estimate of two of these costs in the United States. We estimate the economic cost of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(school closure and its impact on the health care system. In addition to providing the first detailed estimate using U.S. data, we )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(enrich the existing international literature in three ways. First, we use a more comprehensive method to identify adults who stay )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home to provide care. Second, when calculating the value of work missed by caretakers, our data allows us to use the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(caretakers actual wages for all caretakers who are not self-employed. Third, recent survey data enable a precise estimate of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 225.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the proportion of the workforce that is able to work from home and the makeup of this segment of the workforce. We find that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 213.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 and $47 billion dollars \(0.1-0.3% of GDP\) and lead to a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 201.801 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reduction of 6% to 19% in key health care personnel.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 165.198 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(2\) The Simulated Policy)] TJ ET BT 26.250 145.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We estimate the effect of proactively closing all schools and formal daycare centers in the United States. This is the same policy )] TJ ET BT 26.250 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(analyzed in two previous studies of the costs of school closure )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 297.748 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET BT 308.590 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([5])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 319.432 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Some researchers have proposed reactive closure or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 121.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(class dismissal instead of proactive closure, the policy we consider. In reactive closure schools are closed once many )] TJ ET BT 26.250 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children and/or staff have fallen ill. In class dismissal schools remain open, but most children stay home )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 474.925 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 485.767 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . We report )] TJ ET BT 26.250 97.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimates of the per child costs of closing school so our results can be extended to these other cases.)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 684.354 577.500 53.646 re W n 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 718.042 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School )] TJ ET BT 15.000 693.094 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(Closures in the U.S.)] TJ ET Q 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [(October 4, 2009)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Howard Lempel)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 94.519 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 99.941 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Joshua M Epstein)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 177.433 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 182.854 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Ross A Hammond)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Lempel H, Epstein JM, Hammond RA. Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School Closures in the U.S.. )] TJ ET BT 550.771 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(PLOS )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.438 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Currents Influenza. 2009 Oct 4 . Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.RRN1051.)] TJ ET q 15.000 32.625 577.500 604.432 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 610.335 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Abstract)] TJ ET BT 26.250 590.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School closure is an important component of U.S. pandemic flu mitigation strategy, but has important costs. We give estimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 578.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of both the direct economic and health care impacts for school closure durations of 2, 4, 6, and 12 weeks under a range of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 566.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(assumptions. We find that closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 and $47 billion dollars \(0.1-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(0.3% of GDP\) and lead to a reduction of 6% to 19% in key health care personnel.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 518.064 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(1\) Introduction)] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School closures are an important and controversial part of the U.S. federal governments Community Strategy for Pandemic )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Influenza Mitigation in the United States )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 200.756 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([1])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 211.598 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Closing schools would reduce social contacts and suppress transmission. A recent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(literature review concludes that the direct epidemiological benefits of such a strategy are uncertain and depend on the specifics )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of implementation, but could include a modest \(~15%\) reduction in total cases and a large \(~40%\) reduction in peak attack rates )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 450.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 450.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 431.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Controlling the peak attack rate will be crucial to prevent the U.S. healthcare systems surge capacity from being overwhelmed. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In its model scenario, the Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology \(PCAST\) finds that flu cases may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(demand 50 to 100 percent of the total intensive care unit \(ICU\) capacity in the United States. This is a major threat to a system )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that operates at 80 percent of capacity during normal times )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 283.123 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([3])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 293.965 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 375.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Closing schools is controversial because the epidemiological benefits come with associated costs. With their children out of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 364.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(school, many parents will stay home from work. This absenteeism will lead to significant economic costs. Compounding the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 352.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(problem, some absentees will be health care workers. The most pronounced benefit of school closure is to alleviate pressure on )] TJ ET BT 26.250 340.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the health care system. But if health care absenteeism is high, the systems capacity could be reduced when the virus is most )] TJ ET BT 26.250 328.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(prevalent and the demand for health care services is highest.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(PCAST emphasizes the lack of research on the magnitude of these formidable costs: Although evidence-based estimates of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(such costs are difficult to make and inherently imprecise, they can help to advance the rationality of the debates . . . To that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(end, this paper includes the first detailed estimate of two of these costs in the United States. We estimate the economic cost of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(school closure and its impact on the health care system. In addition to providing the first detailed estimate using U.S. data, we )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(enrich the existing international literature in three ways. First, we use a more comprehensive method to identify adults who stay )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home to provide care. Second, when calculating the value of work missed by caretakers, our data allows us to use the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(caretakers actual wages for all caretakers who are not self-employed. Third, recent survey data enable a precise estimate of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 225.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the proportion of the workforce that is able to work from home and the makeup of this segment of the workforce. We find that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 213.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 and $47 billion dollars \(0.1-0.3% of GDP\) and lead to a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 201.801 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reduction of 6% to 19% in key health care personnel.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 165.198 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(2\) The Simulated Policy)] TJ ET BT 26.250 145.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We estimate the effect of proactively closing all schools and formal daycare centers in the United States. This is the same policy )] TJ ET BT 26.250 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(analyzed in two previous studies of the costs of school closure )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 297.748 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET BT 308.590 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([5])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 319.432 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Some researchers have proposed reactive closure or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 121.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(class dismissal instead of proactive closure, the policy we consider. In reactive closure schools are closed once many )] TJ ET BT 26.250 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children and/or staff have fallen ill. In class dismissal schools remain open, but most children stay home )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 474.925 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 485.767 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . We report )] TJ ET BT 26.250 97.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimates of the per child costs of closing school so our results can be extended to these other cases.)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 684.354 577.500 53.646 re W n 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 718.042 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School )] TJ ET BT 15.000 693.094 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(Closures in the U.S.)] TJ ET Q 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [(October 4, 2009)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Howard Lempel)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 94.519 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 99.941 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Joshua M Epstein)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 177.433 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 182.854 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Ross A Hammond)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Lempel H, Epstein JM, Hammond RA. Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School Closures in the U.S.. )] TJ ET BT 550.771 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(PLOS )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.438 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Currents Influenza. 2009 Oct 4 . Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.RRN1051.)] TJ ET q 15.000 32.625 577.500 604.432 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 610.335 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Abstract)] TJ ET BT 26.250 590.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School closure is an important component of U.S. pandemic flu mitigation strategy, but has important costs. We give estimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 578.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of both the direct economic and health care impacts for school closure durations of 2, 4, 6, and 12 weeks under a range of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 566.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(assumptions. We find that closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 and $47 billion dollars \(0.1-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(0.3% of GDP\) and lead to a reduction of 6% to 19% in key health care personnel.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 518.064 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(1\) Introduction)] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School closures are an important and controversial part of the U.S. federal governments Community Strategy for Pandemic )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Influenza Mitigation in the United States )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 200.756 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([1])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 211.598 486.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Closing schools would reduce social contacts and suppress transmission. A recent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(literature review concludes that the direct epidemiological benefits of such a strategy are uncertain and depend on the specifics )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of implementation, but could include a modest \(~15%\) reduction in total cases and a large \(~40%\) reduction in peak attack rates )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 450.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 450.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 431.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Controlling the peak attack rate will be crucial to prevent the U.S. healthcare systems surge capacity from being overwhelmed. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In its model scenario, the Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology \(PCAST\) finds that flu cases may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(demand 50 to 100 percent of the total intensive care unit \(ICU\) capacity in the United States. This is a major threat to a system )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that operates at 80 percent of capacity during normal times )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 283.123 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([3])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 293.965 395.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 375.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Closing schools is controversial because the epidemiological benefits come with associated costs. With their children out of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 364.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(school, many parents will stay home from work. This absenteeism will lead to significant economic costs. Compounding the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 352.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(problem, some absentees will be health care workers. The most pronounced benefit of school closure is to alleviate pressure on )] TJ ET BT 26.250 340.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the health care system. But if health care absenteeism is high, the systems capacity could be reduced when the virus is most )] TJ ET BT 26.250 328.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(prevalent and the demand for health care services is highest.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(PCAST emphasizes the lack of research on the magnitude of these formidable costs: Although evidence-based estimates of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(such costs are difficult to make and inherently imprecise, they can help to advance the rationality of the debates . . . To that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(end, this paper includes the first detailed estimate of two of these costs in the United States. We estimate the economic cost of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(school closure and its impact on the health care system. In addition to providing the first detailed estimate using U.S. data, we )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(enrich the existing international literature in three ways. First, we use a more comprehensive method to identify adults who stay )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home to provide care. Second, when calculating the value of work missed by caretakers, our data allows us to use the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(caretakers actual wages for all caretakers who are not self-employed. Third, recent survey data enable a precise estimate of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 225.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the proportion of the workforce that is able to work from home and the makeup of this segment of the workforce. We find that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 213.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 and $47 billion dollars \(0.1-0.3% of GDP\) and lead to a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 201.801 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reduction of 6% to 19% in key health care personnel.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 165.198 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(2\) The Simulated Policy)] TJ ET BT 26.250 145.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We estimate the effect of proactively closing all schools and formal daycare centers in the United States. This is the same policy )] TJ ET BT 26.250 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(analyzed in two previous studies of the costs of school closure )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 297.748 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET BT 308.590 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([5])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 319.432 133.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Some researchers have proposed reactive closure or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 121.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(class dismissal instead of proactive closure, the policy we consider. In reactive closure schools are closed once many )] TJ ET BT 26.250 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children and/or staff have fallen ill. In class dismissal schools remain open, but most children stay home )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 474.925 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 485.767 109.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . We report )] TJ ET BT 26.250 97.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimates of the per child costs of closing school so our results can be extended to these other cases.)] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 8 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F1 /BaseFont /Helvetica /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 9 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F2 /BaseFont /Times-Bold /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 10 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F3 /BaseFont /Times-Italic /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 11 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F4 /BaseFont /Helvetica-Bold /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 12 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 500 /Height 52 /Filter /FlateDecode /DecodeParms << /Predictor 15 /Colors 1 /Columns 500 /BitsPerComponent 8>> /ColorSpace /DeviceGray /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 144>> stream x1 0 'ݲ؎"e{dzAdzAdzAdzAdzAdzAdzAdzAdzAdzAdzAdzAtlM0\ endstream endobj 13 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 500 /Height 52 /SMask 12 0 R /Filter /FlateDecode /DecodeParms << /Predictor 15 /Colors 3 /Columns 500 /BitsPerComponent 8>> /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 3574>> stream x}ƕK*8+0T ֮ S L*0߇d" sl2FBiFwY0 00 0ŝa0 aqgR܋x||lu2 03UL۶BxI 0:UU0x;֝($z%șHڶ ÐVz ]IS> â(.* TQUuL5 $>BvpH0U:xkkGJT{OɗRNyGOΙyn)q7`(~_Ji2vgk]qVꔷ3N'ȴy4Ikm6!q:FJ)-0n܋v!^}_Z l61va_~Bxw8mv;EJY8}zzQ3]Pȹ,2_jfY4MQ[ '.uO O͋kշ9b6.#ߦUUzhf09+nKɿ4 f7Bu7ĨMfrF0`s8429j1}ZWDW;A4ҫ'TQ{7Cb[$ -"ΨMQgzN/2R7Tco*W:N݋6TUu8`RSi O>r;z^m(0w`:m=]գCE&t |ZYQ%{X[nR+zbEFΧ5pzq`ުం Ih{9G 4wMx' nmvEZ sg7?ZQ}&ҎKGuPu.j8UgNKꓙQC)s#$1䧈x[Z(|Xzc;t<~50Hh_T3Ur>a$]B8Fz[?K>Y/rQ=E4?EaLqzpX!(nNut]}e(/S\fz,<ZOEa]0 sCS_}I Y}n۶r(fg7#)h6ա}$ üvq]Aא$c0ddBDQ)ueypU-z~9Hk<$I©y'Tk`yY d}e{䨙ǐu>&w񚓶('GI\rm[G4 Sk7$B pEkYYC/ 9&Ʋ[V9MQ':X|C֨ʉ jt"ޡ+rttBռGdiM FuTEi(łv]fk"8Ldp' ^הMup2`M?dE!|KJ-\.MzکC=&¾HfR7$ev,La0+$OFuEQ"i,ːN?~E*t4qΚF:t`,{RkR]ޜ(Ԕѣ$IbN}5لS1(Ȱ$I$(eWp8Lٱ3߯ky۶&. 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142.3580 ] >> endobj 77 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 78 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 79 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 474.9255 108.6278 485.7675 118.5485 ] >> endobj 79 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 80 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 83 0 R 85 0 R 87 0 R 89 0 R 91 0 R 93 0 R 95 0 R 97 0 R 99 0 R 101 0 R 103 0 R 105 0 R 107 0 R 109 0 R 111 0 R ] /Contents 81 0 R >> endobj 81 0 obj << /Length 25129 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 38.521 577.500 738.479 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The CDCs Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation contains recommendations for the length schools should )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(remained closed for pandemics of various severities. In the event of a Category 2 or 3 pandemic,the CDC recommends that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure of up to 4 weeks be considered. In the event of a Category 4 or 5 pandemic, closure of up to 12 weeks is recommended )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([1])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Our simulations vary the length of closure from two to twelve weeks to capture the entire range of CDC recommendations.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 695.159 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(3\) Previous Literature)] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In the most comprehensive existing study, Sadique et. al. \(2008\) find that closing all schools for four weeks in the United )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kingdom would cost between 0.1% and 0.4% of GDP. Sadique et. al. estimate the costs of school closure in the U.K. by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 651.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(identifying workers likely to be primary caretakers for children, adding up estimates of their wages, and adjusting for workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who cope with a closure by using informal child care, working from home, or making up work in the future. In addition to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(applying their analysis to the United States, our estimates build upon Sadique et. al.s methodology in three ways )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.612 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 526.454 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(First, to identify adults who are likely to stay home to care for children, Sadique et. al. assume that children are cared for by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household heads or their spouses. However, we believe that an adults relationship to a child is a better predictor than head-of-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household status, which describes legal housing relationships but not child care relationships. We are also able to adjust for the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(presence in the household of adults, such as fathers, siblings, relatives, or housemates, who are not working or working part-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(time and could provide costless care for children. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 240.292 560.562 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Second, when calculating the value of work missed by caretakers, we use the caretakers actual weekly wages for all caretakers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who are not self-employed. Sadique et. al. assume that caretakers make the average weekly wage for workers of their industry )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and gender, that part-time work is equally prevalent within each industry/gender cell, and that the part-time workers work half as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(many hours at the same hourly rate as full-time workers. These assumptions do not hold in our data.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Third, we use survey data to precisely determine how often workers will be able to work from home if they are caring for their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children. Sadique et. al. do not have data on ability to work from home and therefore use data on access to broadband as a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(proxy. Unfortunately in many industries, for example most of the service sector, working from home is impossible regardless of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(any access to broadband. Our data is also broken out by household income, allowing us to adjust for the fact that workers in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high-income households are more than three times as likely to be able to work from home as workers in low-income households )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([6])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In a paper simulating the net economic effects of a vast array of mitigation strategies, Sander, et. al. provide the best existing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate of the cost of closing all schools in the )] TJ ET BT 232.180 395.205 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(United States)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 290.709 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([5])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 301.551 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . They find that the net cost of closing schools in the United )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(States for 26 weeks is $2.72 million per 1,000 persons. They reasonably assume that 2.5 days of work are missed per week in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 371.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(each household with a child. However, they make no effort to adjust for the difference in earnings between adults who are likely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 359.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to care for children and other workers.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.889 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(4\) Methods)] TJ ET BT 26.250 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To estimate the costs associated with school closure, we first use the Current Population Survey \(CPS\), a large, household-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(based labor force survey in the United States that is representative of the civilian non-institutionalized population, to identify )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households where an adult is likely to miss work to provide child care. Next, we select adults that are most likely to miss work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(based on their gender and relationship to children in the household. Finally, we use data on absentees earnings and industry to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(value the effect of their absence on the economy and the health care system. In our low estimate, we also adjust these costs )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(downwards to account for the use of informal child care, some workers ability to work from home, and an elasticity of output )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(with respect to hours that is less than unity. In this section, we discuss each of these steps in turn.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 194.903 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(A\) The Data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 174.949 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Most of our data are extracted from the 2008 CPS. The CPS is a monthly labor force survey that asks respondents detailed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.044 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(questions about their labor force involvement and relationships to other members of the household. Data on sex, household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(relationships, and labor force status allow us to identify likely absentees. Data on hours worked in the previous week allow us to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate the amount of work missed and data on the previous weeks earnings aid our valuation of that work.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 119.830 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We restrict our sample to members of the CPSs outgoing rotation groups \(ORGs\). CPS respondents are surveyed eight times. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 107.925 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(When a respondent enters the CPS, she is surveyed each month for four straight months. For the next eight months, she is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 96.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(removed from the sample. She is then interviewed each month for four more months to finish out her time in the survey. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 84.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Respondents in their fourth or eighth month in the survey are said to be a part of the outgoing rotation groups because they will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 72.211 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(not be surveyed again in the following month. To minimize respondent burden, the CPS only asks questions on earnings and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 60.306 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours of respondents who are in ORGs. We merge data from each months ORGs, creating a large sample of 405,211 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 48.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(observations including 191,841 workers.)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 38.521 577.500 738.479 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The CDCs Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation contains recommendations for the length schools should )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(remained closed for pandemics of various severities. In the event of a Category 2 or 3 pandemic,the CDC recommends that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure of up to 4 weeks be considered. In the event of a Category 4 or 5 pandemic, closure of up to 12 weeks is recommended )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([1])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Our simulations vary the length of closure from two to twelve weeks to capture the entire range of CDC recommendations.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 695.159 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(3\) Previous Literature)] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In the most comprehensive existing study, Sadique et. al. \(2008\) find that closing all schools for four weeks in the United )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kingdom would cost between 0.1% and 0.4% of GDP. Sadique et. al. estimate the costs of school closure in the U.K. by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 651.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(identifying workers likely to be primary caretakers for children, adding up estimates of their wages, and adjusting for workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who cope with a closure by using informal child care, working from home, or making up work in the future. In addition to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(applying their analysis to the United States, our estimates build upon Sadique et. al.s methodology in three ways )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.612 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 526.454 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(First, to identify adults who are likely to stay home to care for children, Sadique et. al. assume that children are cared for by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household heads or their spouses. However, we believe that an adults relationship to a child is a better predictor than head-of-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household status, which describes legal housing relationships but not child care relationships. We are also able to adjust for the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(presence in the household of adults, such as fathers, siblings, relatives, or housemates, who are not working or working part-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(time and could provide costless care for children. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 240.292 560.562 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Second, when calculating the value of work missed by caretakers, we use the caretakers actual weekly wages for all caretakers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who are not self-employed. Sadique et. al. assume that caretakers make the average weekly wage for workers of their industry )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and gender, that part-time work is equally prevalent within each industry/gender cell, and that the part-time workers work half as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(many hours at the same hourly rate as full-time workers. These assumptions do not hold in our data.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Third, we use survey data to precisely determine how often workers will be able to work from home if they are caring for their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children. Sadique et. al. do not have data on ability to work from home and therefore use data on access to broadband as a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(proxy. Unfortunately in many industries, for example most of the service sector, working from home is impossible regardless of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(any access to broadband. Our data is also broken out by household income, allowing us to adjust for the fact that workers in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high-income households are more than three times as likely to be able to work from home as workers in low-income households )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([6])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In a paper simulating the net economic effects of a vast array of mitigation strategies, Sander, et. al. provide the best existing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate of the cost of closing all schools in the )] TJ ET BT 232.180 395.205 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(United States)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 290.709 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([5])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 301.551 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . They find that the net cost of closing schools in the United )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(States for 26 weeks is $2.72 million per 1,000 persons. They reasonably assume that 2.5 days of work are missed per week in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 371.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(each household with a child. However, they make no effort to adjust for the difference in earnings between adults who are likely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 359.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to care for children and other workers.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.889 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(4\) Methods)] TJ ET BT 26.250 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To estimate the costs associated with school closure, we first use the Current Population Survey \(CPS\), a large, household-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(based labor force survey in the United States that is representative of the civilian non-institutionalized population, to identify )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households where an adult is likely to miss work to provide child care. Next, we select adults that are most likely to miss work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(based on their gender and relationship to children in the household. Finally, we use data on absentees earnings and industry to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(value the effect of their absence on the economy and the health care system. In our low estimate, we also adjust these costs )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(downwards to account for the use of informal child care, some workers ability to work from home, and an elasticity of output )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(with respect to hours that is less than unity. In this section, we discuss each of these steps in turn.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 194.903 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(A\) The Data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 174.949 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Most of our data are extracted from the 2008 CPS. The CPS is a monthly labor force survey that asks respondents detailed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.044 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(questions about their labor force involvement and relationships to other members of the household. Data on sex, household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(relationships, and labor force status allow us to identify likely absentees. Data on hours worked in the previous week allow us to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate the amount of work missed and data on the previous weeks earnings aid our valuation of that work.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 119.830 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We restrict our sample to members of the CPSs outgoing rotation groups \(ORGs\). CPS respondents are surveyed eight times. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 107.925 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(When a respondent enters the CPS, she is surveyed each month for four straight months. For the next eight months, she is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 96.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(removed from the sample. She is then interviewed each month for four more months to finish out her time in the survey. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 84.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Respondents in their fourth or eighth month in the survey are said to be a part of the outgoing rotation groups because they will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 72.211 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(not be surveyed again in the following month. To minimize respondent burden, the CPS only asks questions on earnings and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 60.306 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours of respondents who are in ORGs. We merge data from each months ORGs, creating a large sample of 405,211 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 48.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(observations including 191,841 workers.)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 38.521 577.500 738.479 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The CDCs Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation contains recommendations for the length schools should )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(remained closed for pandemics of various severities. In the event of a Category 2 or 3 pandemic,the CDC recommends that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure of up to 4 weeks be considered. In the event of a Category 4 or 5 pandemic, closure of up to 12 weeks is recommended )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([1])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Our simulations vary the length of closure from two to twelve weeks to capture the entire range of CDC recommendations.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 695.159 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(3\) Previous Literature)] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In the most comprehensive existing study, Sadique et. al. \(2008\) find that closing all schools for four weeks in the United )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kingdom would cost between 0.1% and 0.4% of GDP. Sadique et. al. estimate the costs of school closure in the U.K. by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 651.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(identifying workers likely to be primary caretakers for children, adding up estimates of their wages, and adjusting for workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who cope with a closure by using informal child care, working from home, or making up work in the future. In addition to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(applying their analysis to the United States, our estimates build upon Sadique et. al.s methodology in three ways )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.612 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 526.454 627.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(First, to identify adults who are likely to stay home to care for children, Sadique et. al. assume that children are cared for by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household heads or their spouses. However, we believe that an adults relationship to a child is a better predictor than head-of-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household status, which describes legal housing relationships but not child care relationships. We are also able to adjust for the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(presence in the household of adults, such as fathers, siblings, relatives, or housemates, who are not working or working part-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(time and could provide costless care for children. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 240.292 560.562 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Second, when calculating the value of work missed by caretakers, we use the caretakers actual weekly wages for all caretakers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who are not self-employed. Sadique et. al. assume that caretakers make the average weekly wage for workers of their industry )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and gender, that part-time work is equally prevalent within each industry/gender cell, and that the part-time workers work half as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(many hours at the same hourly rate as full-time workers. These assumptions do not hold in our data.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Third, we use survey data to precisely determine how often workers will be able to work from home if they are caring for their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children. Sadique et. al. do not have data on ability to work from home and therefore use data on access to broadband as a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(proxy. Unfortunately in many industries, for example most of the service sector, working from home is impossible regardless of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(any access to broadband. Our data is also broken out by household income, allowing us to adjust for the fact that workers in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high-income households are more than three times as likely to be able to work from home as workers in low-income households )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([6])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 37.092 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In a paper simulating the net economic effects of a vast array of mitigation strategies, Sander, et. al. provide the best existing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate of the cost of closing all schools in the )] TJ ET BT 232.180 395.205 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(United States)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 290.709 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([5])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 301.551 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . They find that the net cost of closing schools in the United )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(States for 26 weeks is $2.72 million per 1,000 persons. They reasonably assume that 2.5 days of work are missed per week in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 371.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(each household with a child. However, they make no effort to adjust for the difference in earnings between adults who are likely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 359.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to care for children and other workers.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.889 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(4\) Methods)] TJ ET BT 26.250 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To estimate the costs associated with school closure, we first use the Current Population Survey \(CPS\), a large, household-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(based labor force survey in the United States that is representative of the civilian non-institutionalized population, to identify )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households where an adult is likely to miss work to provide child care. Next, we select adults that are most likely to miss work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(based on their gender and relationship to children in the household. Finally, we use data on absentees earnings and industry to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(value the effect of their absence on the economy and the health care system. In our low estimate, we also adjust these costs )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(downwards to account for the use of informal child care, some workers ability to work from home, and an elasticity of output )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(with respect to hours that is less than unity. In this section, we discuss each of these steps in turn.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 194.903 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(A\) The Data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 174.949 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Most of our data are extracted from the 2008 CPS. The CPS is a monthly labor force survey that asks respondents detailed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.044 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(questions about their labor force involvement and relationships to other members of the household. Data on sex, household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(relationships, and labor force status allow us to identify likely absentees. Data on hours worked in the previous week allow us to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate the amount of work missed and data on the previous weeks earnings aid our valuation of that work.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 119.830 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We restrict our sample to members of the CPSs outgoing rotation groups \(ORGs\). CPS respondents are surveyed eight times. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 107.925 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(When a respondent enters the CPS, she is surveyed each month for four straight months. For the next eight months, she is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 96.021 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(removed from the sample. She is then interviewed each month for four more months to finish out her time in the survey. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 84.116 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Respondents in their fourth or eighth month in the survey are said to be a part of the outgoing rotation groups because they will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 72.211 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(not be surveyed again in the following month. To minimize respondent burden, the CPS only asks questions on earnings and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 60.306 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours of respondents who are in ORGs. We merge data from each months ORGs, creating a large sample of 405,211 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 48.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(observations including 191,841 workers.)] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 82 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F5 /BaseFont /Helvetica-Oblique /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 83 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 84 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 730.8601 37.0920 740.7807 ] >> endobj 84 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 85 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 86 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 515.6123 626.6843 526.4543 636.6049 ] >> endobj 86 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 87 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 88 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 240.2918 559.7608 245.1104 568.5791 ] >> endobj 88 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 89 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 90 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 425.6131 37.0920 435.5337 ] >> endobj 90 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 91 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 92 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 290.7090 394.3036 301.5510 404.2242 ] >> endobj 92 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 93 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 94 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 730.8601 37.0920 740.7807 ] >> endobj 94 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 95 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 96 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 515.6123 626.6843 526.4543 636.6049 ] >> endobj 96 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 97 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 98 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 240.2918 559.7608 245.1104 568.5791 ] >> endobj 98 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 99 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 100 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 425.6131 37.0920 435.5337 ] >> endobj 100 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 101 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 102 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 290.7090 394.3036 301.5510 404.2242 ] >> endobj 102 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 103 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 104 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 730.8601 37.0920 740.7807 ] >> endobj 104 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 105 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 106 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 515.6123 626.6843 526.4543 636.6049 ] >> endobj 106 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 107 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 108 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 240.2918 559.7608 245.1104 568.5791 ] >> endobj 108 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 109 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 110 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 425.6131 37.0920 435.5337 ] >> endobj 110 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 111 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 112 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 290.7090 394.3036 301.5510 404.2242 ] >> endobj 112 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 113 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 115 0 R 117 0 R 119 0 R 121 0 R 123 0 R 125 0 R 127 0 R 129 0 R 131 0 R 133 0 R 135 0 R 137 0 R 139 0 R 141 0 R 143 0 R 145 0 R 147 0 R 149 0 R 151 0 R 153 0 R 155 0 R 157 0 R 159 0 R 161 0 R 163 0 R 165 0 R 167 0 R 169 0 R 171 0 R 173 0 R 175 0 R 177 0 R 179 0 R 181 0 R 183 0 R 185 0 R 187 0 R 189 0 R 191 0 R ] /Contents 114 0 R >> endobj 114 0 obj << /Length 30469 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 23.649 577.500 753.351 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Unfortunately, even ORG members are not asked about their earnings if they are self-employed. For these workers, we turn to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement \(ASEC\), which has data on workers total earnings and weeks worked in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2007.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Data on the use of informal child care comes from the eighth wave of the Censuss 2004 Survey of Income and Program )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Participation \(SIPP\). The SIPP is a nationally representative panel survey designed by the Census to provide information on the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(principal determinants of income and program participation in the United States. Respondents in the late spring and summer of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2006 were asked about childcare arrangements of children under age 15 whose guardians are working or in school.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Data on the ability to work from home comes from the Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Securitys )] TJ ET BT 71.217 657.238 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Pandemic Influenza Survey)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 189.894 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([6])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 200.736 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . The survey, administered in the Fall of 2006, included a nationally representative )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(survey of 1,697 adults age 18 and over with an over-sample of adults in households with children. The surveys authors have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(published data on the ability to work from home for one month during a pandemic by household income level. Respondents who )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(would be able to work from home were also asked whether they could work from home while caring for their children )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 529.642 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([7])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 540.485 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.921 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(B\) Valuing Lost Production)] TJ ET BT 26.250 564.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(If an adult stays home from work to care for a child, the output she would otherwise have produced is lost. The human capital )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(method \(HCM\) is the most common way to value this lost output. Neoclassical economic theory implies that under perfect )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(competition workers marginal compensation is equal to their marginal revenue product. The HCM assumes that perfect )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(competition holds, so the cost of a weeks lost work is equal to a week of compensation )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 405.047 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([8])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 415.889 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 424.021 529.253 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.839 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Koopmanschap et. al. argue that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the HCM overestimates the costs of absenteeism by neglecting the ways firms can cope. As long as there is a reserve of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unemployed labor, workers absent for long periods of time will be replaced. Therefore, the true cost of absenteeism is not equal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to the workers compensation over the length of her absence, but rather to the total of her compensation during the time it takes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to replace her, and the costs associated with finding and training her replacement )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 379.590 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([9])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 390.432 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Koopmanschap et. al. dub this the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(friction cost method \(FCM\) for valuing the indirect cost of disease, absenteeism.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al. point out that the HCM and the FCM should produce similar estimates of the costs of school closure because )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(schools are not expected to close for so long that replacement workers will be hired and trained. Therefore, like Sadique et. al., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we use the HCM to value the costs of absenteeism due to school closures. Unfortunately, we know of no large household-based )] TJ ET BT 26.250 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(datasets with reliable data on fringe benefits, so we use earnings as a proxy for compensation )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 433.781 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 444.623 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 452.754 414.610 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 457.573 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We must also confront a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 402.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(second data issue. Our main dataset, the CPS ORGs, is missing data on earnings among self-employed workers. We impute )] TJ ET BT 26.250 390.801 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(these earnings using data on annual earnings and weeks worked among self-employed persons in the 2008 CPS ASEC. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 548.674 390.801 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 354.198 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(C\) Who Stays Home?)] TJ ET BT 26.250 334.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Our baseline estimate assumes that, in the event of a school closure, one adult \(age 16+\) member of every household with at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(least one child \(age <16\) must be at home to provide care at all times. This means that no work will be missed in any household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(containing an adult who did not work in the week prior to being surveyed. In households where every adult works, one employed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adult will miss work and provide care.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Next, we must predict )] TJ ET BT 122.697 279.125 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(which)] TJ ET BT 147.618 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( household member will stay home. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 303.130 279.125 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 307.949 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In our baseline estimate, we make two assumptions: 1\) Adults )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who are closely related to a child are more likely to care for her than other adults; 2\) If male and female adults are equally )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closely related to a child, a female stays home. Specifically, we break adults down into six categories: 1\) Mothers of children in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the household; 2\) Fathers of children in the household; 3\) Other female relatives of children in the household; 4\) Other male )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(relatives of children in the household; 5\) Other females; and 6\) Other males. If the mother of any child in the household is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present, then she is assumed to stay home and care for all of the households children in the event of school closure. If more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(than one childs mother is present \(e.g. in a multi-family household\), then one mother is randomly selected to stay home from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. If no mothers are present, then an adult from our 2 )] TJ ET BT 272.827 199.680 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(nd)] TJ ET BT 282.465 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( category \(i.e. a father\) is selected to stay home. If no childs father )] TJ ET BT 26.250 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is present, then an adult from category 3 is chosen, and so on. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 298.314 183.887 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(6)] TJ ET BT 303.133 183.887 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 307.951 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In our high-cost scenario, we assume that households choose )] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.982 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults to care for children without regard to gender. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 249.525 171.982 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 152.577 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Fortunately, not all caretakers will have to miss all their hours. If someone in the household works part-time then the care taker )] TJ ET BT 26.250 140.673 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(only misses as many hours per week as are worked by the adults who work the least. As an example, consider a household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(with one child; suppose her mother works 40 hours per week, her uncle works 20 hours per week, and her aunt works 5 hours )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(per week. We assume that the aunt can care for the child when she is not at work, so just 5 hours of work per week will be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(missed by the childs care taker. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 167.674 104.958 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 85.554 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We believe this approach yields a reasonable baseline for the level of absenteeism the U.S. will face in the event of an )] TJ ET BT 26.250 73.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(epidemic. Multiple children should not be cared for together because this would negate the epidemiological benefits of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure. This means that care takers will be scarce in the event of an epidemic and few households may be able to find )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(babysitters or neighbors to care for their children. Survey evidence confirms the plausibility of our baseline. In a recent Harvard )] TJ ET BT 26.250 37.935 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School of Public Health survey, 51% of respondents in households with children in school or daycare reported that it was likely )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 23.649 577.500 753.351 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Unfortunately, even ORG members are not asked about their earnings if they are self-employed. For these workers, we turn to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement \(ASEC\), which has data on workers total earnings and weeks worked in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2007.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Data on the use of informal child care comes from the eighth wave of the Censuss 2004 Survey of Income and Program )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Participation \(SIPP\). The SIPP is a nationally representative panel survey designed by the Census to provide information on the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(principal determinants of income and program participation in the United States. Respondents in the late spring and summer of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2006 were asked about childcare arrangements of children under age 15 whose guardians are working or in school.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Data on the ability to work from home comes from the Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Securitys )] TJ ET BT 71.217 657.238 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Pandemic Influenza Survey)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 189.894 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([6])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 200.736 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . The survey, administered in the Fall of 2006, included a nationally representative )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(survey of 1,697 adults age 18 and over with an over-sample of adults in households with children. The surveys authors have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(published data on the ability to work from home for one month during a pandemic by household income level. Respondents who )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(would be able to work from home were also asked whether they could work from home while caring for their children )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 529.642 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([7])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 540.485 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.921 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(B\) Valuing Lost Production)] TJ ET BT 26.250 564.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(If an adult stays home from work to care for a child, the output she would otherwise have produced is lost. The human capital )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(method \(HCM\) is the most common way to value this lost output. Neoclassical economic theory implies that under perfect )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(competition workers marginal compensation is equal to their marginal revenue product. The HCM assumes that perfect )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(competition holds, so the cost of a weeks lost work is equal to a week of compensation )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 405.047 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([8])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 415.889 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 424.021 529.253 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.839 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Koopmanschap et. al. argue that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the HCM overestimates the costs of absenteeism by neglecting the ways firms can cope. As long as there is a reserve of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unemployed labor, workers absent for long periods of time will be replaced. Therefore, the true cost of absenteeism is not equal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to the workers compensation over the length of her absence, but rather to the total of her compensation during the time it takes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to replace her, and the costs associated with finding and training her replacement )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 379.590 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([9])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 390.432 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Koopmanschap et. al. dub this the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(friction cost method \(FCM\) for valuing the indirect cost of disease, absenteeism.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al. point out that the HCM and the FCM should produce similar estimates of the costs of school closure because )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(schools are not expected to close for so long that replacement workers will be hired and trained. Therefore, like Sadique et. al., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we use the HCM to value the costs of absenteeism due to school closures. Unfortunately, we know of no large household-based )] TJ ET BT 26.250 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(datasets with reliable data on fringe benefits, so we use earnings as a proxy for compensation )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 433.781 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 444.623 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 452.754 414.610 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 457.573 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We must also confront a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 402.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(second data issue. Our main dataset, the CPS ORGs, is missing data on earnings among self-employed workers. We impute )] TJ ET BT 26.250 390.801 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(these earnings using data on annual earnings and weeks worked among self-employed persons in the 2008 CPS ASEC. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 548.674 390.801 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 354.198 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(C\) Who Stays Home?)] TJ ET BT 26.250 334.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Our baseline estimate assumes that, in the event of a school closure, one adult \(age 16+\) member of every household with at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(least one child \(age <16\) must be at home to provide care at all times. This means that no work will be missed in any household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(containing an adult who did not work in the week prior to being surveyed. In households where every adult works, one employed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adult will miss work and provide care.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Next, we must predict )] TJ ET BT 122.697 279.125 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(which)] TJ ET BT 147.618 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( household member will stay home. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 303.130 279.125 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 307.949 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In our baseline estimate, we make two assumptions: 1\) Adults )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who are closely related to a child are more likely to care for her than other adults; 2\) If male and female adults are equally )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closely related to a child, a female stays home. Specifically, we break adults down into six categories: 1\) Mothers of children in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the household; 2\) Fathers of children in the household; 3\) Other female relatives of children in the household; 4\) Other male )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(relatives of children in the household; 5\) Other females; and 6\) Other males. If the mother of any child in the household is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present, then she is assumed to stay home and care for all of the households children in the event of school closure. If more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(than one childs mother is present \(e.g. in a multi-family household\), then one mother is randomly selected to stay home from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. If no mothers are present, then an adult from our 2 )] TJ ET BT 272.827 199.680 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(nd)] TJ ET BT 282.465 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( category \(i.e. a father\) is selected to stay home. If no childs father )] TJ ET BT 26.250 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is present, then an adult from category 3 is chosen, and so on. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 298.314 183.887 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(6)] TJ ET BT 303.133 183.887 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 307.951 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In our high-cost scenario, we assume that households choose )] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.982 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults to care for children without regard to gender. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 249.525 171.982 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 152.577 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Fortunately, not all caretakers will have to miss all their hours. If someone in the household works part-time then the care taker )] TJ ET BT 26.250 140.673 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(only misses as many hours per week as are worked by the adults who work the least. As an example, consider a household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(with one child; suppose her mother works 40 hours per week, her uncle works 20 hours per week, and her aunt works 5 hours )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(per week. We assume that the aunt can care for the child when she is not at work, so just 5 hours of work per week will be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(missed by the childs care taker. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 167.674 104.958 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 85.554 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We believe this approach yields a reasonable baseline for the level of absenteeism the U.S. will face in the event of an )] TJ ET BT 26.250 73.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(epidemic. Multiple children should not be cared for together because this would negate the epidemiological benefits of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure. This means that care takers will be scarce in the event of an epidemic and few households may be able to find )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(babysitters or neighbors to care for their children. Survey evidence confirms the plausibility of our baseline. In a recent Harvard )] TJ ET BT 26.250 37.935 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School of Public Health survey, 51% of respondents in households with children in school or daycare reported that it was likely )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 23.649 577.500 753.351 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Unfortunately, even ORG members are not asked about their earnings if they are self-employed. For these workers, we turn to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement \(ASEC\), which has data on workers total earnings and weeks worked in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2007.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Data on the use of informal child care comes from the eighth wave of the Censuss 2004 Survey of Income and Program )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Participation \(SIPP\). The SIPP is a nationally representative panel survey designed by the Census to provide information on the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(principal determinants of income and program participation in the United States. Respondents in the late spring and summer of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2006 were asked about childcare arrangements of children under age 15 whose guardians are working or in school.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Data on the ability to work from home comes from the Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Securitys )] TJ ET BT 71.217 657.238 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Pandemic Influenza Survey)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 189.894 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([6])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 200.736 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . The survey, administered in the Fall of 2006, included a nationally representative )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(survey of 1,697 adults age 18 and over with an over-sample of adults in households with children. The surveys authors have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(published data on the ability to work from home for one month during a pandemic by household income level. Respondents who )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(would be able to work from home were also asked whether they could work from home while caring for their children )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 529.642 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([7])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 540.485 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.921 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(B\) Valuing Lost Production)] TJ ET BT 26.250 564.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(If an adult stays home from work to care for a child, the output she would otherwise have produced is lost. The human capital )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(method \(HCM\) is the most common way to value this lost output. Neoclassical economic theory implies that under perfect )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(competition workers marginal compensation is equal to their marginal revenue product. The HCM assumes that perfect )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(competition holds, so the cost of a weeks lost work is equal to a week of compensation )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 405.047 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([8])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 415.889 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 424.021 529.253 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.839 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Koopmanschap et. al. argue that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the HCM overestimates the costs of absenteeism by neglecting the ways firms can cope. As long as there is a reserve of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unemployed labor, workers absent for long periods of time will be replaced. Therefore, the true cost of absenteeism is not equal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to the workers compensation over the length of her absence, but rather to the total of her compensation during the time it takes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to replace her, and the costs associated with finding and training her replacement )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 379.590 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([9])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 390.432 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Koopmanschap et. al. dub this the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(friction cost method \(FCM\) for valuing the indirect cost of disease, absenteeism.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al. point out that the HCM and the FCM should produce similar estimates of the costs of school closure because )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(schools are not expected to close for so long that replacement workers will be hired and trained. Therefore, like Sadique et. al., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 426.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we use the HCM to value the costs of absenteeism due to school closures. Unfortunately, we know of no large household-based )] TJ ET BT 26.250 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(datasets with reliable data on fringe benefits, so we use earnings as a proxy for compensation )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 433.781 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 444.623 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 452.754 414.610 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 457.573 414.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We must also confront a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 402.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(second data issue. Our main dataset, the CPS ORGs, is missing data on earnings among self-employed workers. We impute )] TJ ET BT 26.250 390.801 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(these earnings using data on annual earnings and weeks worked among self-employed persons in the 2008 CPS ASEC. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 548.674 390.801 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 354.198 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(C\) Who Stays Home?)] TJ ET BT 26.250 334.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Our baseline estimate assumes that, in the event of a school closure, one adult \(age 16+\) member of every household with at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(least one child \(age <16\) must be at home to provide care at all times. This means that no work will be missed in any household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(containing an adult who did not work in the week prior to being surveyed. In households where every adult works, one employed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adult will miss work and provide care.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Next, we must predict )] TJ ET BT 122.697 279.125 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(which)] TJ ET BT 147.618 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( household member will stay home. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 303.130 279.125 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 307.949 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In our baseline estimate, we make two assumptions: 1\) Adults )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who are closely related to a child are more likely to care for her than other adults; 2\) If male and female adults are equally )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closely related to a child, a female stays home. Specifically, we break adults down into six categories: 1\) Mothers of children in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the household; 2\) Fathers of children in the household; 3\) Other female relatives of children in the household; 4\) Other male )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(relatives of children in the household; 5\) Other females; and 6\) Other males. If the mother of any child in the household is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present, then she is assumed to stay home and care for all of the households children in the event of school closure. If more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(than one childs mother is present \(e.g. in a multi-family household\), then one mother is randomly selected to stay home from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. If no mothers are present, then an adult from our 2 )] TJ ET BT 272.827 199.680 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(nd)] TJ ET BT 282.465 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( category \(i.e. a father\) is selected to stay home. If no childs father )] TJ ET BT 26.250 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is present, then an adult from category 3 is chosen, and so on. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 298.314 183.887 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(6)] TJ ET BT 303.133 183.887 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 307.951 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In our high-cost scenario, we assume that households choose )] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.982 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults to care for children without regard to gender. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 249.525 171.982 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 152.577 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Fortunately, not all caretakers will have to miss all their hours. If someone in the household works part-time then the care taker )] TJ ET BT 26.250 140.673 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(only misses as many hours per week as are worked by the adults who work the least. As an example, consider a household )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(with one child; suppose her mother works 40 hours per week, her uncle works 20 hours per week, and her aunt works 5 hours )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(per week. We assume that the aunt can care for the child when she is not at work, so just 5 hours of work per week will be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(missed by the childs care taker. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 167.674 104.958 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 85.554 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We believe this approach yields a reasonable baseline for the level of absenteeism the U.S. will face in the event of an )] TJ ET BT 26.250 73.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(epidemic. Multiple children should not be cared for together because this would negate the epidemiological benefits of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure. This means that care takers will be scarce in the event of an epidemic and few households may be able to find )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(babysitters or neighbors to care for their children. Survey evidence confirms the plausibility of our baseline. In a recent Harvard )] TJ ET BT 26.250 37.935 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(School of Public Health survey, 51% of respondents in households with children in school or daycare reported that it was likely )] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 115 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 116 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 189.8940 656.3363 200.7360 666.2569 ] >> endobj 116 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 117 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 118 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 529.6425 620.6221 540.4845 630.5427 ] >> endobj 118 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 119 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 120 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 405.0473 528.3511 415.8893 538.2717 ] >> endobj 120 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 121 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 122 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 424.0208 528.4513 428.8394 537.2696 ] >> endobj 122 0 obj << 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By comparison, in our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(baseline estimate an adult misses some work in 42% of households with children under 18.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Following Sadique et. al., in our low estimate, we allow households to avoid missed work by turning to informal child care or by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(working from home. Many households with children and without stay-at-home adults already use informal child care. Children )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are often cared for by grandparents, other relatives, family or family daycare providers )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 399.061 712.357 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 408.698 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( while the adults in their households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. Other children care for themselves. Because children in these arrangements are likely to encounter less social contact )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(than at school, many households may elect to use informal care to allow employed adults to keep working if schools close.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(According to the 2004 SIPP, during normal times, at least one child regularly )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 358.442 669.143 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 368.080 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( cares for herself, or is cared for by a relative )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(other than her parents)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 122.180 657.238 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 131.818 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, a baby sitter, some other adult, or a family day care provider in 57% of households with children under )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the age of 15 and where every adult works. We assume that these households will expand their use of informal care instead of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(having an adult miss work and that this expanded use of informal care does not cause any other adults to miss work. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 531.320 633.429 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Therefore, in the low cost estimate, we multiply the lost output of all workers by 0.43. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 393.113 621.524 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 602.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Other workers will cope with an epidemic by working from home. In a 2006 HSPH survey, 25% of employed respondents )] TJ ET BT 26.250 590.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reported that they would be able to work from home for one month while caring for children in the case of a pandemic. This )] TJ ET BT 26.250 578.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(included 11% of persons in households with income under $25,000, 18% in households making $25,000-$49,999, 23% in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 566.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households making $50,000-$74,999, and 38% of persons in households or more $75,000 in income [6 7]. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.464 566.405 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(15)] TJ ET BT 497.101 566.405 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.739 566.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We multiply lost )] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(output in these households by 0.89, 0.82, 0.77, and 0.62 respectively to account for workers who work from home. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 521.043 554.500 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 535.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Overall, in the low cost scenario, a worker misses some work in 14% of households with kids under the age of 18. We believe )] TJ ET BT 26.250 523.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(this leads to a very conservative estimate of the costs of school closure.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.588 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(D\) Calculating Economic Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 466.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline estimate, the total economic cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the sum of the weekly )] TJ ET BT 26.250 454.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings for all caretakers multiplied by the length of the school closure. However, output does not necessarily decrease )] TJ ET BT 26.250 442.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(proportionately with hours. If a worker misses a week of work, her colleagues might pick up the slack or she might work harder )] TJ ET BT 26.250 430.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the next week to catch up, so production might decline by less than 2%. On the other hand, if her work is team-based or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(extremely time-sensitive, then her absence might have a disproportionately large effect on the firms output. Saqidue, et. al. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(found that the best estimate of the elasticity of output with respect to hours of labor )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 385.031 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 395.873 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is 0.8. In other words, 20% of missed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(production will be made up by the worker herself or her colleagues. Therefore, in the low-cost estimate, all lost output is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(multiplied by 0.8.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 346.698 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(E\) Estimating Absenteeism in the Healthcare Sector)] TJ ET BT 26.250 326.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The scenarios that would induce high )] TJ ET BT 189.913 326.744 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(economic)] TJ ET BT 231.634 326.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( costs during a school closure are not the same scenarios that would induce the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 314.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(most stress on the healthcare system. 78% of healthcare workers are women, so absenteeism in the healthcare sector would )] TJ ET BT 26.250 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be )] TJ ET BT 39.803 302.934 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(lower)] TJ ET BT 63.095 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( if more men were to care for children, as in our high-economic-cost scenario. Moreover, few if any healthcare workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(can be effective working from home. We therefore report two estimates of absenteeism in the healthcare sector. Our baseline )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate assumes the same scenario as in our baseline economic estimate. Our low-cost estimate of the impact of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure on health care absenteeism assumes that households 1\) choose caretakers for children without regard to gender; 2\) )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(expand their use of informal care instead of missing work if they already have an informal care system in place. As in our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(baseline scenario, we assume that workers are unable to work from home and that the elasticity of output with respect to labor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours is one. Healthcare provision during a flu epidemic is time-sensitive \(so workers cannot make up missed work when they )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(return\) and the healthcare system will be overburdened \(so coworkers will not pick up slack\). We therefore believe it is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unreasonable to assume that healthcare provision will decline less than proportionately with hours of work missed.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.094 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(5\) Results)] TJ ET BT 26.250 133.942 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(A\) Overall Absenteeism)] TJ ET BT 26.250 113.988 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In the United States, 23% of all civilian workers in the United States live in households with a child under 16 and no stay-at-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 102.083 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home adults. Under our baseline scenario, 52% of these workers will miss some work to care for children, and 10% of all labor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 90.178 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours in the civilian U.S. economy will be lost during the period that schools are closed. If many workers are able to cope with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 78.273 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure by turning to informal childcare and working from home, as in our low-cost scenario, 3% of all labor-hours in the civilian )] TJ ET BT 26.250 66.369 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. economy will be lost.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 46.964 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline scenario, 95% of absentees are female. In our high cost scenario, where households choose caretakers without )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 32.678 577.500 744.322 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that an adult in their household would have to miss work if schools were closed for two weeks )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 431.587 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([10])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.850 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . By comparison, in our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(baseline estimate an adult misses some work in 42% of households with children under 18.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Following Sadique et. al., in our low estimate, we allow households to avoid missed work by turning to informal child care or by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(working from home. Many households with children and without stay-at-home adults already use informal child care. Children )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are often cared for by grandparents, other relatives, family or family daycare providers )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 399.061 712.357 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 408.698 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( while the adults in their households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. Other children care for themselves. Because children in these arrangements are likely to encounter less social contact )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(than at school, many households may elect to use informal care to allow employed adults to keep working if schools close.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(According to the 2004 SIPP, during normal times, at least one child regularly )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 358.442 669.143 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 368.080 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( cares for herself, or is cared for by a relative )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(other than her parents)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 122.180 657.238 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 131.818 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, a baby sitter, some other adult, or a family day care provider in 57% of households with children under )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the age of 15 and where every adult works. We assume that these households will expand their use of informal care instead of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(having an adult miss work and that this expanded use of informal care does not cause any other adults to miss work. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 531.320 633.429 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Therefore, in the low cost estimate, we multiply the lost output of all workers by 0.43. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 393.113 621.524 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 602.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Other workers will cope with an epidemic by working from home. In a 2006 HSPH survey, 25% of employed respondents )] TJ ET BT 26.250 590.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reported that they would be able to work from home for one month while caring for children in the case of a pandemic. This )] TJ ET BT 26.250 578.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(included 11% of persons in households with income under $25,000, 18% in households making $25,000-$49,999, 23% in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 566.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households making $50,000-$74,999, and 38% of persons in households or more $75,000 in income [6 7]. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.464 566.405 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(15)] TJ ET BT 497.101 566.405 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.739 566.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We multiply lost )] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(output in these households by 0.89, 0.82, 0.77, and 0.62 respectively to account for workers who work from home. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 521.043 554.500 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 535.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Overall, in the low cost scenario, a worker misses some work in 14% of households with kids under the age of 18. We believe )] TJ ET BT 26.250 523.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(this leads to a very conservative estimate of the costs of school closure.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.588 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(D\) Calculating Economic Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 466.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline estimate, the total economic cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the sum of the weekly )] TJ ET BT 26.250 454.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings for all caretakers multiplied by the length of the school closure. However, output does not necessarily decrease )] TJ ET BT 26.250 442.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(proportionately with hours. If a worker misses a week of work, her colleagues might pick up the slack or she might work harder )] TJ ET BT 26.250 430.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the next week to catch up, so production might decline by less than 2%. On the other hand, if her work is team-based or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(extremely time-sensitive, then her absence might have a disproportionately large effect on the firms output. Saqidue, et. al. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(found that the best estimate of the elasticity of output with respect to hours of labor )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 385.031 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 395.873 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is 0.8. In other words, 20% of missed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(production will be made up by the worker herself or her colleagues. Therefore, in the low-cost estimate, all lost output is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(multiplied by 0.8.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 346.698 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(E\) Estimating Absenteeism in the Healthcare Sector)] TJ ET BT 26.250 326.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The scenarios that would induce high )] TJ ET BT 189.913 326.744 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(economic)] TJ ET BT 231.634 326.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( costs during a school closure are not the same scenarios that would induce the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 314.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(most stress on the healthcare system. 78% of healthcare workers are women, so absenteeism in the healthcare sector would )] TJ ET BT 26.250 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be )] TJ ET BT 39.803 302.934 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(lower)] TJ ET BT 63.095 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( if more men were to care for children, as in our high-economic-cost scenario. Moreover, few if any healthcare workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(can be effective working from home. We therefore report two estimates of absenteeism in the healthcare sector. Our baseline )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate assumes the same scenario as in our baseline economic estimate. Our low-cost estimate of the impact of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure on health care absenteeism assumes that households 1\) choose caretakers for children without regard to gender; 2\) )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(expand their use of informal care instead of missing work if they already have an informal care system in place. As in our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(baseline scenario, we assume that workers are unable to work from home and that the elasticity of output with respect to labor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours is one. Healthcare provision during a flu epidemic is time-sensitive \(so workers cannot make up missed work when they )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(return\) and the healthcare system will be overburdened \(so coworkers will not pick up slack\). We therefore believe it is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unreasonable to assume that healthcare provision will decline less than proportionately with hours of work missed.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.094 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(5\) Results)] TJ ET BT 26.250 133.942 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(A\) Overall Absenteeism)] TJ ET BT 26.250 113.988 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In the United States, 23% of all civilian workers in the United States live in households with a child under 16 and no stay-at-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 102.083 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home adults. Under our baseline scenario, 52% of these workers will miss some work to care for children, and 10% of all labor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 90.178 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours in the civilian U.S. economy will be lost during the period that schools are closed. If many workers are able to cope with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 78.273 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure by turning to informal childcare and working from home, as in our low-cost scenario, 3% of all labor-hours in the civilian )] TJ ET BT 26.250 66.369 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. economy will be lost.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 46.964 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline scenario, 95% of absentees are female. In our high cost scenario, where households choose caretakers without )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 32.678 577.500 744.322 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that an adult in their household would have to miss work if schools were closed for two weeks )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 431.587 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([10])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.850 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . By comparison, in our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(baseline estimate an adult misses some work in 42% of households with children under 18.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Following Sadique et. al., in our low estimate, we allow households to avoid missed work by turning to informal child care or by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(working from home. Many households with children and without stay-at-home adults already use informal child care. Children )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are often cared for by grandparents, other relatives, family or family daycare providers )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 399.061 712.357 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 408.698 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( while the adults in their households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. Other children care for themselves. Because children in these arrangements are likely to encounter less social contact )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(than at school, many households may elect to use informal care to allow employed adults to keep working if schools close.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(According to the 2004 SIPP, during normal times, at least one child regularly )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 358.442 669.143 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 368.080 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( cares for herself, or is cared for by a relative )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(other than her parents)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 122.180 657.238 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 131.818 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, a baby sitter, some other adult, or a family day care provider in 57% of households with children under )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the age of 15 and where every adult works. We assume that these households will expand their use of informal care instead of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(having an adult miss work and that this expanded use of informal care does not cause any other adults to miss work. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 531.320 633.429 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Therefore, in the low cost estimate, we multiply the lost output of all workers by 0.43. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 393.113 621.524 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 602.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Other workers will cope with an epidemic by working from home. In a 2006 HSPH survey, 25% of employed respondents )] TJ ET BT 26.250 590.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reported that they would be able to work from home for one month while caring for children in the case of a pandemic. This )] TJ ET BT 26.250 578.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(included 11% of persons in households with income under $25,000, 18% in households making $25,000-$49,999, 23% in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 566.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households making $50,000-$74,999, and 38% of persons in households or more $75,000 in income [6 7]. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.464 566.405 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(15)] TJ ET BT 497.101 566.405 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.739 566.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We multiply lost )] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(output in these households by 0.89, 0.82, 0.77, and 0.62 respectively to account for workers who work from home. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 521.043 554.500 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 535.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Overall, in the low cost scenario, a worker misses some work in 14% of households with kids under the age of 18. We believe )] TJ ET BT 26.250 523.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(this leads to a very conservative estimate of the costs of school closure.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.588 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(D\) Calculating Economic Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 466.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline estimate, the total economic cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the sum of the weekly )] TJ ET BT 26.250 454.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings for all caretakers multiplied by the length of the school closure. However, output does not necessarily decrease )] TJ ET BT 26.250 442.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(proportionately with hours. If a worker misses a week of work, her colleagues might pick up the slack or she might work harder )] TJ ET BT 26.250 430.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the next week to catch up, so production might decline by less than 2%. On the other hand, if her work is team-based or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(extremely time-sensitive, then her absence might have a disproportionately large effect on the firms output. Saqidue, et. al. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(found that the best estimate of the elasticity of output with respect to hours of labor )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 385.031 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 395.873 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is 0.8. In other words, 20% of missed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(production will be made up by the worker herself or her colleagues. Therefore, in the low-cost estimate, all lost output is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(multiplied by 0.8.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 346.698 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(E\) Estimating Absenteeism in the Healthcare Sector)] TJ ET BT 26.250 326.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The scenarios that would induce high )] TJ ET BT 189.913 326.744 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(economic)] TJ ET BT 231.634 326.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( costs during a school closure are not the same scenarios that would induce the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 314.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(most stress on the healthcare system. 78% of healthcare workers are women, so absenteeism in the healthcare sector would )] TJ ET BT 26.250 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be )] TJ ET BT 39.803 302.934 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(lower)] TJ ET BT 63.095 302.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( if more men were to care for children, as in our high-economic-cost scenario. Moreover, few if any healthcare workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(can be effective working from home. We therefore report two estimates of absenteeism in the healthcare sector. Our baseline )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate assumes the same scenario as in our baseline economic estimate. Our low-cost estimate of the impact of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure on health care absenteeism assumes that households 1\) choose caretakers for children without regard to gender; 2\) )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(expand their use of informal care instead of missing work if they already have an informal care system in place. As in our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(baseline scenario, we assume that workers are unable to work from home and that the elasticity of output with respect to labor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours is one. Healthcare provision during a flu epidemic is time-sensitive \(so workers cannot make up missed work when they )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(return\) and the healthcare system will be overburdened \(so coworkers will not pick up slack\). We therefore believe it is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unreasonable to assume that healthcare provision will decline less than proportionately with hours of work missed.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.094 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(5\) Results)] TJ ET BT 26.250 133.942 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(A\) Overall Absenteeism)] TJ ET BT 26.250 113.988 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In the United States, 23% of all civilian workers in the United States live in households with a child under 16 and no stay-at-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 102.083 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home adults. Under our baseline scenario, 52% of these workers will miss some work to care for children, and 10% of all labor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 90.178 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hours in the civilian U.S. economy will be lost during the period that schools are closed. If many workers are able to cope with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 78.273 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure by turning to informal childcare and working from home, as in our low-cost scenario, 3% of all labor-hours in the civilian )] TJ ET BT 26.250 66.369 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. economy will be lost.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 46.964 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline scenario, 95% of absentees are female. In our high cost scenario, where households choose caretakers without )] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(4)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 195 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 196 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 431.5867 766.5743 447.8497 776.4950 ] >> endobj 196 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 197 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 198 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 399.0607 711.5555 408.6981 720.3739 ] >> endobj 198 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 199 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 200 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 358.4423 668.3413 368.0796 677.1596 ] >> endobj 200 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 201 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 202 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 122.1803 656.4365 131.8176 665.2549 ] >> endobj 202 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 203 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 204 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 531.3195 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/I /Rect [ 521.0430 553.6985 530.6803 562.5169 ] >> endobj 252 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 253 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 254 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 385.0305 406.2083 395.8725 416.1290 ] >> endobj 254 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 255 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 257 0 R 259 0 R 261 0 R 263 0 R 265 0 R 267 0 R 269 0 R 271 0 R 273 0 R 275 0 R 277 0 R 279 0 R 281 0 R 283 0 R 285 0 R ] /Contents 256 0 R >> endobj 256 0 obj << /Length 26044 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 22.211 577.500 754.789 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regard to gender, a majority \(59%\) of caretakers are still female because single-mother households are much more common in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the United States than single-father households.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 718.969 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(B\) Economic Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Table 1 and Chart 1 present our estimates of the economic costs the U.S. would face if schools were closed for different lengths )] TJ ET BT 26.250 687.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of time. The federal governments most recent community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation recommends adapting )] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(community responses based on a pandemic severity index, which varies from category 1 \(similar to the seasonal influenza\) to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(category 5 \(similar to the 1918 pandemic\). )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 211.032 663.300 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 220.669 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The plan calls for communities to consider closing schools for four weeks or less if )] TJ ET BT 26.250 651.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the index hits two or three, and recommends that they close schools for up to twelve weeks if a pandemic is even more severe. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We focus on the costs of closing schools for four weeks, approximately at the midpoint of potential closure lengths.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 620.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(According to our baseline estimate, closing schools for four weeks would reduce U.S. GDP by about $43 billion dollars or 0.3% )] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of last years total GDP. Because men earn more on average than women, the costs will be even greater if households decide )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to distribute caretaking responsibilities without regard to gender. In our high cost scenario, $47 billion dollars is lost. On the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(other hand, work-from-home, informal child care, and other coping strategies could substantially reduce these costs. A one )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(month long school closure decreases U.S. GDP by $10 billion dollars in our low cost estimate.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Recent newspaper reports suggest that the Obama Administration is moving away from a preemptive school closure strategy )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(toward a policy of more targeted interventions )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 226.213 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([11])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 242.476 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Table 2 provides estimates of the per student)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 445.705 541.158 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 455.342 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( weekly cost of closing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(schools. We divide the weekly economic cost of closing schools throughout the U.S. by the total number of students in the U.S. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and find that closing schools for four weeks would cost between $140 and $630 per student. This allows us to estimate the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(costs of localized school closure, which could take place in areas that are especially hard-hit. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.876 505.443 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 438.514 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( For example, there are 115,000 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(students in Washington, DC, so closing all DC schools for one week might cost between $4 million and $18 million dollars. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Estimates of the cost of school closure per student also facilitate comparison of the cost of closing schools with the cost of other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mitigation strategies.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 433.127 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(C\) Impact on Households)] TJ ET BT 26.250 413.172 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These aggregate macroeconomic costs will affect different households in very different ways. Because their earnings tend to be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 401.268 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(greatest, absenteeism among high-income households contributes the most to overall costs. However, high-income households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 389.363 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are likely to be most able to cope with lost income, so this measure may not accurately reflect the likely distribution of hardships )] TJ ET BT 26.250 377.458 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(if schools are to close.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 358.053 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Specifically, hardships may be minimized in households with many earners. While one adult misses work to provide care, other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 346.149 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers will continue to bring in earnings and support the household. However, households with just one adult may have to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 334.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cope without any earnings at all while that adult is absent from work. In fact, 20% of households with absentees contain just one )] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adult and will be left without earnings if she is forced to miss work. Most of these households are headed by single parents, who )] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are disproportionately likely to have low- or moderate-income. Specifically 43% of the households expected to lose all of their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings during a school closure are already in the bottom quintile of household income. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 408.850 298.530 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 418.487 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( When considering school closure, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 286.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(policymakers must consider the disparate impact such a policy is likely to have on single parents and low-income households. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 274.720 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(They should consider strengthening safety nets to minimize the financial distress closing schools causes for these workers.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 238.118 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(D\) Educational Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 218.163 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This paper specifically focuses on estimating the cost of workplace absenteeism brought about by closing schools. However, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 206.259 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(another important cost of school closure is student learning loss. In this section, we briefly address this cost.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 186.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(One could value learning loss using the human capital method, adding up the earnings of all persons in the education sector in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 174.949 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the same way that we valued the costs of absenteeism. This approach assumes that the total earnings of all educators in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.044 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(United States are equal to the value of all formal education. We find that the total earnings of all persons who work in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(elementary or secondary schools are $7.3 billion per week. We can improve this estimate by accounting for two additional facts. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(First, there is some overlap between these costs and the economic costs estimated previously, because some workers in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 127.330 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(educational sector were already assumed to stay home to care for their children. Second, if we assume that workers in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 115.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(educational sector do not work at all during school closure, then these educators will be free to stay home and care for children )] TJ ET BT 26.250 103.521 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of their own, and other members of their households who otherwise would have stayed home to provide care will be able to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 91.616 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(attend work. After accounting for these factors, we find that adding the cost of lost learning increases the weekly cost of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 79.711 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure by $6.1 billion dollars.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 60.306 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The U.S. educational sector is not, however, a world of perfect competition. It would be quite optimistic to assume that the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 48.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(political processes that set most educators pay leads compensation in that sector to be equal to educations social value, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 36.497 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(especially because of the high positive externalities involved in education. Therefore, we turn to the literature on summer )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 22.211 577.500 754.789 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regard to gender, a majority \(59%\) of caretakers are still female because single-mother households are much more common in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the United States than single-father households.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 718.969 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(B\) Economic Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Table 1 and Chart 1 present our estimates of the economic costs the U.S. would face if schools were closed for different lengths )] TJ ET BT 26.250 687.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of time. The federal governments most recent community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation recommends adapting )] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(community responses based on a pandemic severity index, which varies from category 1 \(similar to the seasonal influenza\) to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(category 5 \(similar to the 1918 pandemic\). )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 211.032 663.300 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 220.669 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The plan calls for communities to consider closing schools for four weeks or less if )] TJ ET BT 26.250 651.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the index hits two or three, and recommends that they close schools for up to twelve weeks if a pandemic is even more severe. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We focus on the costs of closing schools for four weeks, approximately at the midpoint of potential closure lengths.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 620.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(According to our baseline estimate, closing schools for four weeks would reduce U.S. GDP by about $43 billion dollars or 0.3% )] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of last years total GDP. Because men earn more on average than women, the costs will be even greater if households decide )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to distribute caretaking responsibilities without regard to gender. In our high cost scenario, $47 billion dollars is lost. On the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(other hand, work-from-home, informal child care, and other coping strategies could substantially reduce these costs. A one )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(month long school closure decreases U.S. GDP by $10 billion dollars in our low cost estimate.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Recent newspaper reports suggest that the Obama Administration is moving away from a preemptive school closure strategy )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(toward a policy of more targeted interventions )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 226.213 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([11])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 242.476 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Table 2 provides estimates of the per student)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 445.705 541.158 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 455.342 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( weekly cost of closing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(schools. We divide the weekly economic cost of closing schools throughout the U.S. by the total number of students in the U.S. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and find that closing schools for four weeks would cost between $140 and $630 per student. This allows us to estimate the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(costs of localized school closure, which could take place in areas that are especially hard-hit. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.876 505.443 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 438.514 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( For example, there are 115,000 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(students in Washington, DC, so closing all DC schools for one week might cost between $4 million and $18 million dollars. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Estimates of the cost of school closure per student also facilitate comparison of the cost of closing schools with the cost of other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mitigation strategies.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 433.127 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(C\) Impact on Households)] TJ ET BT 26.250 413.172 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These aggregate macroeconomic costs will affect different households in very different ways. Because their earnings tend to be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 401.268 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(greatest, absenteeism among high-income households contributes the most to overall costs. However, high-income households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 389.363 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are likely to be most able to cope with lost income, so this measure may not accurately reflect the likely distribution of hardships )] TJ ET BT 26.250 377.458 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(if schools are to close.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 358.053 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Specifically, hardships may be minimized in households with many earners. While one adult misses work to provide care, other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 346.149 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers will continue to bring in earnings and support the household. However, households with just one adult may have to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 334.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cope without any earnings at all while that adult is absent from work. In fact, 20% of households with absentees contain just one )] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adult and will be left without earnings if she is forced to miss work. Most of these households are headed by single parents, who )] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are disproportionately likely to have low- or moderate-income. Specifically 43% of the households expected to lose all of their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings during a school closure are already in the bottom quintile of household income. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 408.850 298.530 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 418.487 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( When considering school closure, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 286.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(policymakers must consider the disparate impact such a policy is likely to have on single parents and low-income households. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 274.720 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(They should consider strengthening safety nets to minimize the financial distress closing schools causes for these workers.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 238.118 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(D\) Educational Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 218.163 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This paper specifically focuses on estimating the cost of workplace absenteeism brought about by closing schools. However, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 206.259 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(another important cost of school closure is student learning loss. In this section, we briefly address this cost.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 186.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(One could value learning loss using the human capital method, adding up the earnings of all persons in the education sector in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 174.949 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the same way that we valued the costs of absenteeism. This approach assumes that the total earnings of all educators in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.044 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(United States are equal to the value of all formal education. We find that the total earnings of all persons who work in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(elementary or secondary schools are $7.3 billion per week. We can improve this estimate by accounting for two additional facts. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(First, there is some overlap between these costs and the economic costs estimated previously, because some workers in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 127.330 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(educational sector were already assumed to stay home to care for their children. Second, if we assume that workers in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 115.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(educational sector do not work at all during school closure, then these educators will be free to stay home and care for children )] TJ ET BT 26.250 103.521 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of their own, and other members of their households who otherwise would have stayed home to provide care will be able to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 91.616 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(attend work. After accounting for these factors, we find that adding the cost of lost learning increases the weekly cost of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 79.711 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure by $6.1 billion dollars.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 60.306 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The U.S. educational sector is not, however, a world of perfect competition. It would be quite optimistic to assume that the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 48.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(political processes that set most educators pay leads compensation in that sector to be equal to educations social value, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 36.497 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(especially because of the high positive externalities involved in education. Therefore, we turn to the literature on summer )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 22.211 577.500 754.789 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regard to gender, a majority \(59%\) of caretakers are still female because single-mother households are much more common in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the United States than single-father households.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 718.969 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(B\) Economic Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Table 1 and Chart 1 present our estimates of the economic costs the U.S. would face if schools were closed for different lengths )] TJ ET BT 26.250 687.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of time. The federal governments most recent community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation recommends adapting )] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(community responses based on a pandemic severity index, which varies from category 1 \(similar to the seasonal influenza\) to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(category 5 \(similar to the 1918 pandemic\). )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 211.032 663.300 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 220.669 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The plan calls for communities to consider closing schools for four weeks or less if )] TJ ET BT 26.250 651.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the index hits two or three, and recommends that they close schools for up to twelve weeks if a pandemic is even more severe. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 639.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We focus on the costs of closing schools for four weeks, approximately at the midpoint of potential closure lengths.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 620.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(According to our baseline estimate, closing schools for four weeks would reduce U.S. GDP by about $43 billion dollars or 0.3% )] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of last years total GDP. Because men earn more on average than women, the costs will be even greater if households decide )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to distribute caretaking responsibilities without regard to gender. In our high cost scenario, $47 billion dollars is lost. On the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(other hand, work-from-home, informal child care, and other coping strategies could substantially reduce these costs. A one )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(month long school closure decreases U.S. GDP by $10 billion dollars in our low cost estimate.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Recent newspaper reports suggest that the Obama Administration is moving away from a preemptive school closure strategy )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(toward a policy of more targeted interventions )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 226.213 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([11])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 242.476 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . Table 2 provides estimates of the per student)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 445.705 541.158 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 455.342 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( weekly cost of closing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(schools. We divide the weekly economic cost of closing schools throughout the U.S. by the total number of students in the U.S. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and find that closing schools for four weeks would cost between $140 and $630 per student. This allows us to estimate the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(costs of localized school closure, which could take place in areas that are especially hard-hit. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.876 505.443 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 438.514 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( For example, there are 115,000 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(students in Washington, DC, so closing all DC schools for one week might cost between $4 million and $18 million dollars. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Estimates of the cost of school closure per student also facilitate comparison of the cost of closing schools with the cost of other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mitigation strategies.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 433.127 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(C\) Impact on Households)] TJ ET BT 26.250 413.172 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These aggregate macroeconomic costs will affect different households in very different ways. Because their earnings tend to be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 401.268 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(greatest, absenteeism among high-income households contributes the most to overall costs. However, high-income households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 389.363 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are likely to be most able to cope with lost income, so this measure may not accurately reflect the likely distribution of hardships )] TJ ET BT 26.250 377.458 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(if schools are to close.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 358.053 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Specifically, hardships may be minimized in households with many earners. While one adult misses work to provide care, other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 346.149 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers will continue to bring in earnings and support the household. However, households with just one adult may have to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 334.244 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cope without any earnings at all while that adult is absent from work. In fact, 20% of households with absentees contain just one )] TJ ET BT 26.250 322.339 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adult and will be left without earnings if she is forced to miss work. Most of these households are headed by single parents, who )] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.434 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are disproportionately likely to have low- or moderate-income. Specifically 43% of the households expected to lose all of their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings during a school closure are already in the bottom quintile of household income. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 408.850 298.530 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 418.487 298.530 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( When considering school closure, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 286.625 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(policymakers must consider the disparate impact such a policy is likely to have on single parents and low-income households. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 274.720 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(They should consider strengthening safety nets to minimize the financial distress closing schools causes for these workers.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 238.118 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(D\) Educational Costs)] TJ ET BT 26.250 218.163 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This paper specifically focuses on estimating the cost of workplace absenteeism brought about by closing schools. However, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 206.259 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(another important cost of school closure is student learning loss. In this section, we briefly address this cost.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 186.854 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(One could value learning loss using the human capital method, adding up the earnings of all persons in the education sector in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 174.949 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the same way that we valued the costs of absenteeism. This approach assumes that the total earnings of all educators in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.044 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(United States are equal to the value of all formal education. We find that the total earnings of all persons who work in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.140 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(elementary or secondary schools are $7.3 billion per week. We can improve this estimate by accounting for two additional facts. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.235 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(First, there is some overlap between these costs and the economic costs estimated previously, because some workers in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 127.330 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(educational sector were already assumed to stay home to care for their children. Second, if we assume that workers in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 115.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(educational sector do not work at all during school closure, then these educators will be free to stay home and care for children )] TJ ET BT 26.250 103.521 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of their own, and other members of their households who otherwise would have stayed home to provide care will be able to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 91.616 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(attend work. After accounting for these factors, we find that adding the cost of lost learning increases the weekly cost of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 79.711 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure by $6.1 billion dollars.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 60.306 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The U.S. educational sector is not, however, a world of perfect competition. It would be quite optimistic to assume that the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 48.402 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(political processes that set most educators pay leads compensation in that sector to be equal to educations social value, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 36.497 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(especially because of the high positive externalities involved in education. Therefore, we turn to the literature on summer )] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(5)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 257 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 258 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 211.0320 662.4988 220.6693 671.3171 ] >> endobj 258 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 259 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 260 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 226.2127 540.2558 242.4758 550.1764 ] >> endobj 260 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 261 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 262 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 445.7047 540.3560 455.3421 549.1744 ] >> endobj 262 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 263 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 264 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 428.8763 504.6418 438.5136 513.4601 ] >> endobj 264 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 265 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 266 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 408.8497 297.7280 418.4871 306.5464 ] >> endobj 266 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 267 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 268 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 211.0320 662.4988 220.6693 671.3171 ] >> endobj 268 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 269 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 270 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 226.2127 540.2558 242.4758 550.1764 ] >> endobj 270 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 271 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 272 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 445.7047 540.3560 455.3421 549.1744 ] >> endobj 272 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 273 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 274 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 428.8763 504.6418 438.5136 513.4601 ] >> endobj 274 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 275 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 276 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 408.8497 297.7280 418.4871 306.5464 ] >> endobj 276 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 277 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 278 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 211.0320 662.4988 220.6693 671.3171 ] >> endobj 278 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 279 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 280 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 226.2127 540.2558 242.4758 550.1764 ] >> endobj 280 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 281 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 282 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 445.7047 540.3560 455.3421 549.1744 ] >> endobj 282 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 283 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 284 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 428.8763 504.6418 438.5136 513.4601 ] >> endobj 284 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 285 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 286 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 408.8497 297.7280 418.4871 306.5464 ] >> endobj 286 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 287 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 289 0 R 291 0 R 293 0 R 295 0 R 297 0 R 299 0 R 301 0 R 303 0 R 305 0 R 307 0 R 309 0 R 311 0 R 313 0 R 315 0 R 317 0 R 319 0 R 321 0 R 323 0 R 325 0 R 327 0 R 329 0 R ] /Contents 288 0 R >> endobj 288 0 obj << /Length 28264 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 39.958 577.500 737.042 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(learning loss for a second estimate of the educational costs of school closure)] TJ ET BT 26.250 748.071 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cooper et. al. have carried out a meta-analytic review of the research on summer vacations effect on achievement test scores )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([12])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 42.513 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . They find that on average students lose about one month of learning over a summer break. This average hides substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(variability by socioeconomic status. While the math scores of students from lower- and middle-income families backslide )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(equally, lower class students reading scores decline over the summer, while middle class students scores increase. If school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure during an epidemic has a similar effect on student achievement then it could have adverse effects on educational )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(inequality. Worse yet, researchers have hypothesized that differences in backsliding are caused by enrichment activities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(available to middle-class students over the summer. If schools were suddenly closed due to a flu epidemic, these opportunities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(might not be available and middle-class students may face backslides similar to students from low-income families.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 628.136 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(E\) Stress on the Health Care Sector)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(A main goal of closing schools is to delay and lower peak attack rates in order to avoid surpassing the healthcare systems )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(surge capacity )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 91.819 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 102.661 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . The health care workforce is central to the mitigation strategy. If closing schools leads healthcare workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who would be treating or vaccinating patients to stay home from work and watch their kids, then the benefits of school closure )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(may be undermined by the absenteeism it generates. Closing schools during the epidemic could lead the supply of health care )] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers to be at its minimum precisely when they are most needed.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The appropriate unit in which to measure this effect is the percent of work- )] TJ ET BT 348.683 541.158 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(hours)] TJ ET BT 373.067 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( foregone by healthcare workers providing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(childcare. We emphasize that we estimate )] TJ ET BT 211.568 529.253 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(only)] TJ ET BT 229.450 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( the rate of absenteeism due to school closure. During an epidemic, the rate of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(absenteeism will already be high, as many workers are expected to miss work due to illness or fear of the same. Citing U.K. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data, Sadique et. al. expect that 15% of the healthcare workforce would be absent during an epidemic )] TJ ET BT 467.408 505.443 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(in the absence of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(closure)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.674 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 68.516 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline estimate, 18% of all hours in the healthcare sector are lost. However, many healthcare workers will not be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(involved in influenza mitigation. It is unlikely that workers in the offices of dentists, chiropractors, or optometrists will aid in flu )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mitigation, so we are most concerned about absenteeism in other industries )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 355.186 450.324 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 364.823 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. In our low-cost scenario, 6% of work hours will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be lost due to school closure in these industries, while 18% of hours will be lost in our baseline scenario.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These flu-relevant sub-industries include audiologists and physical therapists, radiation therapists and speech-language )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(pathologists. These workers will not be involved in flu treatment. Therefore, to add further precision to our estimate of stress )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(induced on the healthcare system, we estimate hours lost in relevant industries among workers in relevant occupations. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.760 395.205 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 553.398 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(find similar results: in the low-cost estimate, 6% of work hours in relevant industries )] TJ ET BT 387.117 383.301 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(and)] TJ ET BT 403.380 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( occupations are expected to be lost, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 371.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(while 19% of work hours are lost in the baseline estimate. Overall, we find that closing schools would risk inducing a substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 359.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(increase in health care absenteeism just as demand for healthcare hits its peak. Policymakers should consider this cost when )] TJ ET BT 26.250 347.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(weighing the epidemiological benefits of closing schools.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.984 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(6\) Conclusion)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We find that closing schools in the United States for four weeks would reduce U.S. GDP by between $10 and $47 billion dollars, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a cost equivalent to 0.1% to 0.3% of 2008 U.S. GDP. In addition, such a policy could lead to the absence of 6-19% of relevant )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(healthcare personnel just when these workers are most needed, when incidence is high. Our study builds on the work of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al. who use data from the United Kingdom to estimate the costs of absenteeism due to school closure. In addition to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(publishing new detailed estimates using data from the United States, we add precision to previous methods by better identifying )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(caretakers, their actual salaries, and their ability to work from home. Opportunities remain for future research to more precisely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate the relevant costs. More work must be done to identify households where someone will stay home from work and to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(identify the most likely child care providers in households with multiple adults. Ideally, better data will allow researchers to model )] TJ ET BT 26.250 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households decisions taking into account the age of children who are present and each workers salary, fringe benefits )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 541.079 195.792 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 550.717 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( , and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ability to work from home. Last springs school closures present an excellent opportunity to collect such data. Similarly, more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.982 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data on the actual use of informal child care and working-from-home during school closures would improve the precision of cost )] TJ ET BT 26.250 160.077 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimates. Accounting for fringe benefits might substantially increase the estimates presented here, which are conservative.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 558.395 160.077 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 140.673 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Another contribution would be to embed detailed estimates of the cost of school closure into a more general epidemiological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(model. In an epidemic, some workers would miss work due to fear, their own illness, or their childrens illness, even if schools )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(remained open. A full-scale epidemiological model could estimate the number of caretakers who would have been absent even )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(if schools remained open.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 85.554 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Our paper does not attempt to account for any multiplier effect brought about by a multi-billion dollar decline in economic output. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 73.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The decrease in aggregate supply might lead to inflation. If workers who stay home to provide child care are fired or must take )] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unpaid leave, the collapse in aggregate demand could lead to further reductions in output. These effects could be captured if the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(policy simulation were embedded in a macroeconomic model.)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 39.958 577.500 737.042 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(learning loss for a second estimate of the educational costs of school closure)] TJ ET BT 26.250 748.071 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cooper et. al. have carried out a meta-analytic review of the research on summer vacations effect on achievement test scores )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([12])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 42.513 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . They find that on average students lose about one month of learning over a summer break. This average hides substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(variability by socioeconomic status. While the math scores of students from lower- and middle-income families backslide )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(equally, lower class students reading scores decline over the summer, while middle class students scores increase. If school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure during an epidemic has a similar effect on student achievement then it could have adverse effects on educational )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(inequality. Worse yet, researchers have hypothesized that differences in backsliding are caused by enrichment activities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(available to middle-class students over the summer. If schools were suddenly closed due to a flu epidemic, these opportunities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(might not be available and middle-class students may face backslides similar to students from low-income families.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 628.136 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(E\) Stress on the Health Care Sector)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(A main goal of closing schools is to delay and lower peak attack rates in order to avoid surpassing the healthcare systems )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(surge capacity )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 91.819 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 102.661 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . The health care workforce is central to the mitigation strategy. If closing schools leads healthcare workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who would be treating or vaccinating patients to stay home from work and watch their kids, then the benefits of school closure )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(may be undermined by the absenteeism it generates. Closing schools during the epidemic could lead the supply of health care )] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers to be at its minimum precisely when they are most needed.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The appropriate unit in which to measure this effect is the percent of work- )] TJ ET BT 348.683 541.158 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(hours)] TJ ET BT 373.067 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( foregone by healthcare workers providing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(childcare. We emphasize that we estimate )] TJ ET BT 211.568 529.253 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(only)] TJ ET BT 229.450 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( the rate of absenteeism due to school closure. During an epidemic, the rate of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(absenteeism will already be high, as many workers are expected to miss work due to illness or fear of the same. Citing U.K. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data, Sadique et. al. expect that 15% of the healthcare workforce would be absent during an epidemic )] TJ ET BT 467.408 505.443 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(in the absence of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(closure)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.674 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 68.516 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline estimate, 18% of all hours in the healthcare sector are lost. However, many healthcare workers will not be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(involved in influenza mitigation. It is unlikely that workers in the offices of dentists, chiropractors, or optometrists will aid in flu )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mitigation, so we are most concerned about absenteeism in other industries )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 355.186 450.324 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 364.823 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. In our low-cost scenario, 6% of work hours will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be lost due to school closure in these industries, while 18% of hours will be lost in our baseline scenario.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These flu-relevant sub-industries include audiologists and physical therapists, radiation therapists and speech-language )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(pathologists. These workers will not be involved in flu treatment. Therefore, to add further precision to our estimate of stress )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(induced on the healthcare system, we estimate hours lost in relevant industries among workers in relevant occupations. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.760 395.205 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 553.398 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(find similar results: in the low-cost estimate, 6% of work hours in relevant industries )] TJ ET BT 387.117 383.301 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(and)] TJ ET BT 403.380 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( occupations are expected to be lost, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 371.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(while 19% of work hours are lost in the baseline estimate. Overall, we find that closing schools would risk inducing a substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 359.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(increase in health care absenteeism just as demand for healthcare hits its peak. Policymakers should consider this cost when )] TJ ET BT 26.250 347.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(weighing the epidemiological benefits of closing schools.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.984 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(6\) Conclusion)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We find that closing schools in the United States for four weeks would reduce U.S. GDP by between $10 and $47 billion dollars, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a cost equivalent to 0.1% to 0.3% of 2008 U.S. GDP. In addition, such a policy could lead to the absence of 6-19% of relevant )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(healthcare personnel just when these workers are most needed, when incidence is high. Our study builds on the work of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al. who use data from the United Kingdom to estimate the costs of absenteeism due to school closure. In addition to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(publishing new detailed estimates using data from the United States, we add precision to previous methods by better identifying )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(caretakers, their actual salaries, and their ability to work from home. Opportunities remain for future research to more precisely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate the relevant costs. More work must be done to identify households where someone will stay home from work and to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(identify the most likely child care providers in households with multiple adults. Ideally, better data will allow researchers to model )] TJ ET BT 26.250 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households decisions taking into account the age of children who are present and each workers salary, fringe benefits )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 541.079 195.792 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 550.717 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( , and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ability to work from home. Last springs school closures present an excellent opportunity to collect such data. Similarly, more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.982 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data on the actual use of informal child care and working-from-home during school closures would improve the precision of cost )] TJ ET BT 26.250 160.077 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimates. Accounting for fringe benefits might substantially increase the estimates presented here, which are conservative.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 558.395 160.077 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 140.673 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Another contribution would be to embed detailed estimates of the cost of school closure into a more general epidemiological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(model. In an epidemic, some workers would miss work due to fear, their own illness, or their childrens illness, even if schools )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(remained open. A full-scale epidemiological model could estimate the number of caretakers who would have been absent even )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(if schools remained open.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 85.554 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Our paper does not attempt to account for any multiplier effect brought about by a multi-billion dollar decline in economic output. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 73.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The decrease in aggregate supply might lead to inflation. If workers who stay home to provide child care are fired or must take )] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unpaid leave, the collapse in aggregate demand could lead to further reductions in output. These effects could be captured if the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(policy simulation were embedded in a macroeconomic model.)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 39.958 577.500 737.042 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(learning loss for a second estimate of the educational costs of school closure)] TJ ET BT 26.250 748.071 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cooper et. al. have carried out a meta-analytic review of the research on summer vacations effect on achievement test scores )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([12])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 42.513 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . They find that on average students lose about one month of learning over a summer break. This average hides substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(variability by socioeconomic status. While the math scores of students from lower- and middle-income families backslide )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(equally, lower class students reading scores decline over the summer, while middle class students scores increase. If school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(closure during an epidemic has a similar effect on student achievement then it could have adverse effects on educational )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(inequality. Worse yet, researchers have hypothesized that differences in backsliding are caused by enrichment activities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(available to middle-class students over the summer. If schools were suddenly closed due to a flu epidemic, these opportunities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(might not be available and middle-class students may face backslides similar to students from low-income families.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 628.136 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(E\) Stress on the Health Care Sector)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(A main goal of closing schools is to delay and lower peak attack rates in order to avoid surpassing the healthcare systems )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(surge capacity )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 91.819 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([2])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 102.661 596.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( . The health care workforce is central to the mitigation strategy. If closing schools leads healthcare workers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who would be treating or vaccinating patients to stay home from work and watch their kids, then the benefits of school closure )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(may be undermined by the absenteeism it generates. Closing schools during the epidemic could lead the supply of health care )] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers to be at its minimum precisely when they are most needed.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The appropriate unit in which to measure this effect is the percent of work- )] TJ ET BT 348.683 541.158 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(hours)] TJ ET BT 373.067 541.158 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( foregone by healthcare workers providing )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(childcare. We emphasize that we estimate )] TJ ET BT 211.568 529.253 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(only)] TJ ET BT 229.450 529.253 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( the rate of absenteeism due to school closure. During an epidemic, the rate of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.348 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(absenteeism will already be high, as many workers are expected to miss work due to illness or fear of the same. Citing U.K. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data, Sadique et. al. expect that 15% of the healthcare workforce would be absent during an epidemic )] TJ ET BT 467.408 505.443 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(in the absence of school )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(closure)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.674 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [([4])] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 68.516 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( .)] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In our baseline estimate, 18% of all hours in the healthcare sector are lost. However, many healthcare workers will not be )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(involved in influenza mitigation. It is unlikely that workers in the offices of dentists, chiropractors, or optometrists will aid in flu )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mitigation, so we are most concerned about absenteeism in other industries )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 355.186 450.324 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 364.823 450.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. In our low-cost scenario, 6% of work hours will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be lost due to school closure in these industries, while 18% of hours will be lost in our baseline scenario.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 419.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These flu-relevant sub-industries include audiologists and physical therapists, radiation therapists and speech-language )] TJ ET BT 26.250 407.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(pathologists. These workers will not be involved in flu treatment. Therefore, to add further precision to our estimate of stress )] TJ ET BT 26.250 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(induced on the healthcare system, we estimate hours lost in relevant industries among workers in relevant occupations. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.760 395.205 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 553.398 395.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We )] TJ ET BT 26.250 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(find similar results: in the low-cost estimate, 6% of work hours in relevant industries )] TJ ET BT 387.117 383.301 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(and)] TJ ET BT 403.380 383.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( occupations are expected to be lost, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 371.396 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(while 19% of work hours are lost in the baseline estimate. Overall, we find that closing schools would risk inducing a substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 359.491 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(increase in health care absenteeism just as demand for healthcare hits its peak. Policymakers should consider this cost when )] TJ ET BT 26.250 347.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(weighing the epidemiological benefits of closing schools.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 310.984 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(6\) Conclusion)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We find that closing schools in the United States for four weeks would reduce U.S. GDP by between $10 and $47 billion dollars, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a cost equivalent to 0.1% to 0.3% of 2008 U.S. GDP. In addition, such a policy could lead to the absence of 6-19% of relevant )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(healthcare personnel just when these workers are most needed, when incidence is high. Our study builds on the work of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al. who use data from the United Kingdom to estimate the costs of absenteeism due to school closure. In addition to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(publishing new detailed estimates using data from the United States, we add precision to previous methods by better identifying )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.506 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(caretakers, their actual salaries, and their ability to work from home. Opportunities remain for future research to more precisely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.601 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimate the relevant costs. More work must be done to identify households where someone will stay home from work and to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.696 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(identify the most likely child care providers in households with multiple adults. Ideally, better data will allow researchers to model )] TJ ET BT 26.250 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households decisions taking into account the age of children who are present and each workers salary, fringe benefits )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 541.079 195.792 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 550.717 195.792 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( , and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 183.887 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ability to work from home. Last springs school closures present an excellent opportunity to collect such data. Similarly, more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 171.982 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data on the actual use of informal child care and working-from-home during school closures would improve the precision of cost )] TJ ET BT 26.250 160.077 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(estimates. Accounting for fringe benefits might substantially increase the estimates presented here, which are conservative.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 558.395 160.077 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 140.673 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Another contribution would be to embed detailed estimates of the cost of school closure into a more general epidemiological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(model. In an epidemic, some workers would miss work due to fear, their own illness, or their childrens illness, even if schools )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(remained open. A full-scale epidemiological model could estimate the number of caretakers who would have been absent even )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(if schools remained open.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 85.554 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Our paper does not attempt to account for any multiplier effect brought about by a multi-billion dollar decline in economic output. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 73.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The decrease in aggregate supply might lead to inflation. If workers who stay home to provide child care are fired or must take )] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unpaid leave, the collapse in aggregate demand could lead to further reductions in output. These effects could be captured if the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(policy simulation were embedded in a macroeconomic model.)] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(6)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 289 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 290 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 735.2648 42.5130 745.1854 ] >> endobj 290 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 291 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 292 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 91.8187 595.3748 102.6607 605.2954 ] >> endobj 292 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 293 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 294 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 57.6743 492.6368 68.5162 502.5575 ] >> endobj 294 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 295 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 296 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 355.1857 449.5228 364.8231 458.3411 ] >> endobj 296 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 297 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 298 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 543.7605 394.4038 553.3978 403.2221 ] >> endobj 298 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 299 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 300 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 541.0793 194.9900 550.7166 203.8084 ] >> endobj 300 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 301 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 302 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 558.3953 159.2758 568.0326 168.0941 ] >> endobj 302 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 303 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 304 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 735.2648 42.5130 745.1854 ] >> endobj 304 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 305 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 306 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 91.8187 595.3748 102.6607 605.2954 ] >> endobj 306 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 307 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 308 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 57.6743 492.6368 68.5162 502.5575 ] >> endobj 308 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 309 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 310 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 355.1857 449.5228 364.8231 458.3411 ] >> endobj 310 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 311 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 312 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 543.7605 394.4038 553.3978 403.2221 ] >> endobj 312 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 313 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 314 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 541.0793 194.9900 550.7166 203.8084 ] >> endobj 314 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 315 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 316 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 558.3953 159.2758 568.0326 168.0941 ] >> endobj 316 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 317 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 318 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 735.2648 42.5130 745.1854 ] >> endobj 318 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 319 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 320 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 91.8187 595.3748 102.6607 605.2954 ] >> endobj 320 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 321 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 322 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 57.6743 492.6368 68.5162 502.5575 ] >> endobj 322 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 323 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 324 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 355.1857 449.5228 364.8231 458.3411 ] >> endobj 324 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 325 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 326 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 543.7605 394.4038 553.3978 403.2221 ] >> endobj 326 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 327 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 328 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 541.0793 194.9900 550.7166 203.8084 ] >> endobj 328 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 329 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 330 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 558.3953 159.2758 568.0326 168.0941 ] >> endobj 330 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 331 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 333 0 R 336 0 R 338 0 R ] /Contents 332 0 R >> endobj 332 0 obj << /Length 14856 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 29.907 577.500 747.093 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Finally, more research is needed on the structure of health care providers production functions and precisely which workers will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be involved in flu treatment. For example, some healthcare workers might be easy to substitute for, while the absence of others )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(might severely degrade the healthcare system. The distribution of absences might also matter. If a 19% absenteeism rate due )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to school closure is evenly distributed throughout the healthcare system, providers might be able to adapt. But, if a hospital is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(missing )] TJ ET BT 62.003 719.857 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(all)] TJ ET BT 71.753 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( its nurses, treatment might be more severely impeded. A larger dataset would allow a breakdown of absenteeism by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(detailed occupation within relevant sectors of the healthcare industry. It is not clear what level of absenteeism at the epidemic )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(peak would undermine containment: the delivery of vaccine, the treatment of cases, or the implementation of other mitigation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(measures. But this is clearly a central question raised by this research.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(If the delivery system degrades ungracefully, suddenly becoming dysfunctional at a threshold, we need to know where that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(threshold is and avoid it. We have shown that closing schools at the height of an epidemic could bring about the loss of up to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 640.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(19% of work hours in the healthcare sector. If other causes of absenteeism are included, personnel loss may be as high as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(34%. Policymakers must factor this cost into any cost-benefit analysis of school closure. If schools do close, possibilities would )] TJ ET BT 26.250 617.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(include special arrangements for health care workers children \(e.g. priority vaccination or non-parental supervision which could )] TJ ET BT 26.250 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be provided at low-cost by sidelined workers from the educational sector\). We venture no conclusions on this topic, but believe it )] TJ ET BT 26.250 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(warrants intensive analysis.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 556.707 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Acknowledgements)] TJ ET BT 26.250 536.753 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The authors thank Julia Chelen for her assistance.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 500.150 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Funding Information)] TJ ET BT 26.250 480.196 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This work was supported by: The Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study \(MIDAS\), under Award Number U01GM070708 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 468.291 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences; The Johns Hopkins Medical School DHS Center on Preparedness and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 456.387 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Catastrophic Event Response \(PACER\), under Award Number N00014-06-1-0991 from the Office of Naval Research; and The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 444.482 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(University of Pittsburgh Public Health Adaptive Systems \(PHASYS\) project, under Cooperative Agreement Number )] TJ ET BT 26.250 432.577 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1P01TP000304-01 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Epsteins work is also supported by an NIH Directors )] TJ ET BT 26.250 420.672 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Pioneer Award, Number DP1OD003874 from the Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health. The content is solely the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 408.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute of General Medical )] TJ ET BT 26.250 396.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sciences, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Office of Naval Research, or the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 384.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 348.356 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Competing Interests)] TJ ET BT 26.250 328.401 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.799 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Figures)] TJ ET BT 26.250 271.845 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(FIGURE 1)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 93.964 555.000 168.000 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 261.964 m 581.250 261.964 l 581.250 261.214 l 26.250 261.214 l f 26.250 93.964 m 581.250 93.964 l 581.250 94.714 l 26.250 94.714 l f q 225.000 0 0 148.500 35.250 103.714 cm /I3 Do Q q 35.250 97.714 537.000 0.000 re W n Q 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 59.742 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Tables)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 29.907 577.500 747.093 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Finally, more research is needed on the structure of health care providers production functions and precisely which workers will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be involved in flu treatment. For example, some healthcare workers might be easy to substitute for, while the absence of others )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(might severely degrade the healthcare system. The distribution of absences might also matter. If a 19% absenteeism rate due )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to school closure is evenly distributed throughout the healthcare system, providers might be able to adapt. But, if a hospital is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(missing )] TJ ET BT 62.003 719.857 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(all)] TJ ET BT 71.753 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( its nurses, treatment might be more severely impeded. A larger dataset would allow a breakdown of absenteeism by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(detailed occupation within relevant sectors of the healthcare industry. It is not clear what level of absenteeism at the epidemic )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(peak would undermine containment: the delivery of vaccine, the treatment of cases, or the implementation of other mitigation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(measures. But this is clearly a central question raised by this research.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(If the delivery system degrades ungracefully, suddenly becoming dysfunctional at a threshold, we need to know where that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(threshold is and avoid it. We have shown that closing schools at the height of an epidemic could bring about the loss of up to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 640.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(19% of work hours in the healthcare sector. If other causes of absenteeism are included, personnel loss may be as high as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(34%. Policymakers must factor this cost into any cost-benefit analysis of school closure. If schools do close, possibilities would )] TJ ET BT 26.250 617.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(include special arrangements for health care workers children \(e.g. priority vaccination or non-parental supervision which could )] TJ ET BT 26.250 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be provided at low-cost by sidelined workers from the educational sector\). We venture no conclusions on this topic, but believe it )] TJ ET BT 26.250 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(warrants intensive analysis.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 556.707 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Acknowledgements)] TJ ET BT 26.250 536.753 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The authors thank Julia Chelen for her assistance.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 500.150 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Funding Information)] TJ ET BT 26.250 480.196 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This work was supported by: The Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study \(MIDAS\), under Award Number U01GM070708 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 468.291 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences; The Johns Hopkins Medical School DHS Center on Preparedness and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 456.387 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Catastrophic Event Response \(PACER\), under Award Number N00014-06-1-0991 from the Office of Naval Research; and The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 444.482 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(University of Pittsburgh Public Health Adaptive Systems \(PHASYS\) project, under Cooperative Agreement Number )] TJ ET BT 26.250 432.577 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1P01TP000304-01 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Epsteins work is also supported by an NIH Directors )] TJ ET BT 26.250 420.672 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Pioneer Award, Number DP1OD003874 from the Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health. The content is solely the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 408.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute of General Medical )] TJ ET BT 26.250 396.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sciences, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Office of Naval Research, or the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 384.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 348.356 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Competing Interests)] TJ ET BT 26.250 328.401 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.799 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Figures)] TJ ET BT 26.250 271.845 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(FIGURE 1)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 93.964 555.000 168.000 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 261.964 m 581.250 261.964 l 581.250 261.214 l 26.250 261.214 l f 26.250 93.964 m 581.250 93.964 l 581.250 94.714 l 26.250 94.714 l f q 225.000 0 0 148.500 35.250 103.714 cm /I3 Do Q q 35.250 97.714 537.000 0.000 re W n Q 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 59.742 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Tables)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 29.907 577.500 747.093 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Finally, more research is needed on the structure of health care providers production functions and precisely which workers will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be involved in flu treatment. For example, some healthcare workers might be easy to substitute for, while the absence of others )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(might severely degrade the healthcare system. The distribution of absences might also matter. If a 19% absenteeism rate due )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to school closure is evenly distributed throughout the healthcare system, providers might be able to adapt. But, if a hospital is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(missing )] TJ ET BT 62.003 719.857 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(all)] TJ ET BT 71.753 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( its nurses, treatment might be more severely impeded. A larger dataset would allow a breakdown of absenteeism by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(detailed occupation within relevant sectors of the healthcare industry. It is not clear what level of absenteeism at the epidemic )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(peak would undermine containment: the delivery of vaccine, the treatment of cases, or the implementation of other mitigation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(measures. But this is clearly a central question raised by this research.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(If the delivery system degrades ungracefully, suddenly becoming dysfunctional at a threshold, we need to know where that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(threshold is and avoid it. We have shown that closing schools at the height of an epidemic could bring about the loss of up to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 640.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(19% of work hours in the healthcare sector. If other causes of absenteeism are included, personnel loss may be as high as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(34%. Policymakers must factor this cost into any cost-benefit analysis of school closure. If schools do close, possibilities would )] TJ ET BT 26.250 617.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(include special arrangements for health care workers children \(e.g. priority vaccination or non-parental supervision which could )] TJ ET BT 26.250 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be provided at low-cost by sidelined workers from the educational sector\). We venture no conclusions on this topic, but believe it )] TJ ET BT 26.250 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(warrants intensive analysis.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 556.707 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Acknowledgements)] TJ ET BT 26.250 536.753 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The authors thank Julia Chelen for her assistance.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 500.150 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Funding Information)] TJ ET BT 26.250 480.196 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This work was supported by: The Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study \(MIDAS\), under Award Number U01GM070708 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 468.291 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences; The Johns Hopkins Medical School DHS Center on Preparedness and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 456.387 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Catastrophic Event Response \(PACER\), under Award Number N00014-06-1-0991 from the Office of Naval Research; and The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 444.482 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(University of Pittsburgh Public Health Adaptive Systems \(PHASYS\) project, under Cooperative Agreement Number )] TJ ET BT 26.250 432.577 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1P01TP000304-01 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Epsteins work is also supported by an NIH Directors )] TJ ET BT 26.250 420.672 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Pioneer Award, Number DP1OD003874 from the Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health. The content is solely the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 408.768 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute of General Medical )] TJ ET BT 26.250 396.863 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sciences, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Office of Naval Research, or the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 384.958 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 348.356 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Competing Interests)] TJ ET BT 26.250 328.401 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.799 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Figures)] TJ ET BT 26.250 271.845 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(FIGURE 1)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 93.964 555.000 168.000 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 261.964 m 581.250 261.964 l 581.250 261.214 l 26.250 261.214 l f 26.250 93.964 m 581.250 93.964 l 581.250 94.714 l 26.250 94.714 l f q 225.000 0 0 148.500 35.250 103.714 cm /I3 Do Q q 35.250 97.714 537.000 0.000 re W n Q 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 59.742 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Tables)] TJ ET Q q 225.000 0 0 148.500 35.250 103.714 cm /I3 Do Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(7)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 333 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 334 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 103.7138 260.2500 252.2138 ] >> endobj 334 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/influenza/files/2009/10/chart-1.bmp) >> endobj 335 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 300 /Height 198 /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /Filter /DCTDecode /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 12875>> stream JFIF;CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v62), quality = 90 C     C   ," }!1AQa"q2#BR$3br %&'()*456789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz w!1AQaq"2B #3Rbr $4%&'()*56789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz ?Q Q@upR9$zAi-`-e`7[ID;XLwoTMFK{K75%opIxF2x4? 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|sZjXN8ܳ2q\(п/Ikf0qp"ﮪJ*Gŏ{g]>MAz'qyʑx 9޵?TvvR,R>*X f31M&pI?w$eOI/Ed{4mkU:A㿂 /nTf%夿kO}WK+b*:ÈTՕj?z5F }xu͠8[x925fA$|'~LϱJjMžOrR+:+T⠶G?[ kZHLdqI|R ]"PS?!~o }h獔d ^?b?);O;_DWOm k:Ienu+oLw$*?Q昌|Z=l1)Fw_ÿ&B4:y$Z;" 4g?ޥBm?A\GC~-l /|¸onSxs|Y_G3Oh.P#h N*ju7؜f>:k7č'~)eV9O2ys1 rg~0E[ k=#GhzX-9"",LQwޘDĺdmsⷄ o28UDKrenzڍЂv< uݴSe@dF 1'·>CC;';־"mENmj0>,9k6Oki$p$3,T 1ֽ<.J]ȔT5n?6Wx8Um|(gzoԭ9o}{{KxOI;smn QHG\uȭkω-t#-)ѱ/8R8]+TcITvcsLF?[ݾ˹~9}k imL_io.r|H5 *UEE 40u<ygE0F-= &nFr;:X+W^=8[V0]y|TXWtb 5Bjx ]X׏UO=^k\yv|*ZO;P_`N(^'?b:5-g5F/;\#B3_~k:7+v/./%ݤx#>ptMҽ3]J[isG*5# )ʹwsY~0^ngt!Av0>b0,C #ExīwI˘{݁܉hElm̡rjxsׇ--`k3Z22Fй (͵_ht[o~7掶C>k{pA1PV6E\0I= ~ &_x~59Vb JT3('8ؓzޏc߉uK=nb [C;#I#l(>l0|Ye|c YfcX0!ڲɂG8${,P^(<7-~կ%[ .ZHob&XF1&s|{7^ibZMqw=,Zaw N*UcRzQ@K~߁ ijVVW7zW1܃qgskI8*p0`NmPOm߈\u G-4Q*Oͦy'c2iG[\TaBܨ6Ps՟ٓz}'g\;U%  8HQ@=A|9ևd1oT%R$T13αZbַU7!nF댦Jyi$|}EyGEK k[K[ -n4R0PUQD* ^Ҋ(i(OO$2xvѱV%q 9RUd`y ΊEæj#imT%ۓ_[ZW#7J;=sg9jv{v`yΡxbw q>jҝrTV稓Oc٨~1ўOytEm~o Fͅʗl9+KQ|_Ioo8ˬ7%m NBdmm&N䴖v>;:tSjqjTE$>jC&OAd- +'])eXY͹8uRkU_zKCsqldbԟ(zl@RǠo \mWXMo^jWt]5 s|5x>y7i;b.mӘ#;F z*(8("((( ^Q@ Җ((֋iyks ڡKә'Çans:EȰM䫬H=7OP܄BUGe$('>Xj_Kzm$O)G@;G?tkrn%<ɦi2ݛo&i_5rQ@|nyg3ɥiY~PRM#%1ӎU^q W-g<-)->6BfTnϗtX<4dk rws=?+kRk/!#3,ci6<ͥrQ@?emfe $ hc$qLF'Tc?J( endstream endobj 336 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 337 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 103.7138 260.2500 252.2138 ] >> endobj 337 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/influenza/files/2009/10/chart-1.bmp) >> endobj 338 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 339 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 103.7138 260.2500 252.2138 ] >> endobj 339 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/influenza/files/2009/10/chart-1.bmp) >> endobj 340 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Contents 341 0 R >> endobj 341 0 obj << /Length 18994 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 -239.809 577.500 1016.809 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(TABLE 1)] TJ ET 1.000 1.000 1.000 rg 26.250 336.095 555.000 421.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 756.470 138.750 0.750 re f 165.375 756.470 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 756.470 138.375 0.750 re f 442.125 756.470 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 732.958 0.750 24.263 re f 580.125 732.958 0.750 24.263 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 746.615 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Economic Costs of Absenteeism Due to School Closure in the United States \(Billions of 2008 US dollars and Percent )] TJ ET BT 31.875 738.984 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(of 2008 GDP\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 723.103 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Closure Length)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Low Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 257.474 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Base Estimate)] TJ ET BT 375.276 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(High Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 536.388 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($5.2 \(<0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($21.3 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($23.6 \(0.2%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(4 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($10.6 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($42.6 \(0.3%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($47.1 \(0.3%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(6 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($15.6 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($63.9 \(0.4%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($70.7 \(0.5%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(12 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($31.3 \(0.2%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($127.8 \(0.9%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($141.3 \(1.0%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 650.601 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 572.449 138.750 0.750 re f 165.375 650.601 138.375 0.750 re f 165.375 572.449 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 650.601 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 572.449 138.375 0.750 re f 442.125 650.601 138.750 0.750 re f 442.125 572.449 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 572.449 0.750 78.902 re f 580.125 572.449 0.750 78.902 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 640.746 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sources: 2007 and 2008 CPS Outgoing Rotation Groups; 2008 CPS March Supplement; Child Care Module of the 2004 )] TJ ET BT 31.875 633.115 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(SIPP; Sadique et. al.; Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Securitys Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 31.875 623.123 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Survey.)] TJ ET BT 64.928 625.688 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 69.746 623.123 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Allows for use of informal care and work?from?home and assumes the elasticity of output with respect to hours )] TJ ET BT 31.875 612.541 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(worked is 0.8. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 452.919 615.106 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 457.738 612.541 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult )] TJ ET BT 31.875 604.319 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours worked is 1. If a )] TJ ET BT 31.875 594.327 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 373.798 596.893 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 378.616 594.327 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult must miss work in )] TJ ET BT 31.875 586.106 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours worked is 1. Assumes that )] TJ ET BT 31.875 578.475 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households randomly choose whether males or females care for children.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 289.071 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(TABLE 2)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 -239.809 577.500 1016.809 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(TABLE 1)] TJ ET 1.000 1.000 1.000 rg 26.250 336.095 555.000 421.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 756.470 138.750 0.750 re f 165.375 756.470 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 756.470 138.375 0.750 re f 442.125 756.470 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 732.958 0.750 24.263 re f 580.125 732.958 0.750 24.263 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 746.615 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Economic Costs of Absenteeism Due to School Closure in the United States \(Billions of 2008 US dollars and Percent )] TJ ET BT 31.875 738.984 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(of 2008 GDP\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 723.103 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Closure Length)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Low Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 257.474 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Base Estimate)] TJ ET BT 375.276 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(High Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 536.388 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($5.2 \(<0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($21.3 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($23.6 \(0.2%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(4 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($10.6 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($42.6 \(0.3%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($47.1 \(0.3%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(6 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($15.6 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($63.9 \(0.4%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($70.7 \(0.5%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(12 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($31.3 \(0.2%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($127.8 \(0.9%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($141.3 \(1.0%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 650.601 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 572.449 138.750 0.750 re f 165.375 650.601 138.375 0.750 re f 165.375 572.449 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 650.601 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 572.449 138.375 0.750 re f 442.125 650.601 138.750 0.750 re f 442.125 572.449 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 572.449 0.750 78.902 re f 580.125 572.449 0.750 78.902 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 640.746 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sources: 2007 and 2008 CPS Outgoing Rotation Groups; 2008 CPS March Supplement; Child Care Module of the 2004 )] TJ ET BT 31.875 633.115 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(SIPP; Sadique et. al.; Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Securitys Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 31.875 623.123 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Survey.)] TJ ET BT 64.928 625.688 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 69.746 623.123 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Allows for use of informal care and work?from?home and assumes the elasticity of output with respect to hours )] TJ ET BT 31.875 612.541 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(worked is 0.8. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 452.919 615.106 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 457.738 612.541 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult )] TJ ET BT 31.875 604.319 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours worked is 1. If a )] TJ ET BT 31.875 594.327 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 373.798 596.893 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 378.616 594.327 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult must miss work in )] TJ ET BT 31.875 586.106 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours worked is 1. Assumes that )] TJ ET BT 31.875 578.475 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households randomly choose whether males or females care for children.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 289.071 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(TABLE 2)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 -239.809 577.500 1016.809 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(TABLE 1)] TJ ET 1.000 1.000 1.000 rg 26.250 336.095 555.000 421.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 756.470 138.750 0.750 re f 165.375 756.470 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 756.470 138.375 0.750 re f 442.125 756.470 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 732.958 0.750 24.263 re f 580.125 732.958 0.750 24.263 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 746.615 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Economic Costs of Absenteeism Due to School Closure in the United States \(Billions of 2008 US dollars and Percent )] TJ ET BT 31.875 738.984 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(of 2008 GDP\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 723.103 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Closure Length)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Low Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 257.474 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Base Estimate)] TJ ET BT 375.276 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 732.958 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 714.126 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 720.742 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(High Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 536.388 723.307 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($5.2 \(<0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($21.3 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 714.126 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 698.245 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 704.271 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($23.6 \(0.2%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(4 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($10.6 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($42.6 \(0.3%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 698.245 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 682.363 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 688.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($47.1 \(0.3%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(6 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($15.6 \(0.1%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($63.9 \(0.4%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 682.363 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 666.482 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 672.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($70.7 \(0.5%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 26.625 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(12 Weeks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 165.000 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 165.000 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.250 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($31.3 \(0.2%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 303.375 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 303.375 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 308.625 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($127.8 \(0.9%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 441.750 666.482 139.125 0.750 re f 441.750 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 650.601 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 447.000 656.627 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($141.3 \(1.0%\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 650.601 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 572.449 138.750 0.750 re f 165.375 650.601 138.375 0.750 re f 165.375 572.449 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 650.601 138.375 0.750 re f 303.750 572.449 138.375 0.750 re f 442.125 650.601 138.750 0.750 re f 442.125 572.449 138.750 0.750 re f 26.625 572.449 0.750 78.902 re f 580.125 572.449 0.750 78.902 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 640.746 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sources: 2007 and 2008 CPS Outgoing Rotation Groups; 2008 CPS March Supplement; Child Care Module of the 2004 )] TJ ET BT 31.875 633.115 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(SIPP; Sadique et. al.; Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Securitys Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 31.875 623.123 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Survey.)] TJ ET BT 64.928 625.688 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 69.746 623.123 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Allows for use of informal care and work?from?home and assumes the elasticity of output with respect to hours )] TJ ET BT 31.875 612.541 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(worked is 0.8. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 452.919 615.106 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 457.738 612.541 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult )] TJ ET BT 31.875 604.319 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours worked is 1. If a )] TJ ET BT 31.875 594.327 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 373.798 596.893 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 378.616 594.327 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult must miss work in )] TJ ET BT 31.875 586.106 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours worked is 1. Assumes that )] TJ ET BT 31.875 578.475 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(households randomly choose whether males or females care for children.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 289.071 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(TABLE 2)] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(8)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 342 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 344 0 R 346 0 R 348 0 R 350 0 R 352 0 R 354 0 R 356 0 R 358 0 R 360 0 R 362 0 R 364 0 R 366 0 R 368 0 R 370 0 R 372 0 R ] /Contents 343 0 R >> endobj 343 0 obj << /Length 21295 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 30.372 577.500 746.628 re W n 1.000 1.000 1.000 rg 26.250 295.500 555.000 481.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 775.875 184.875 0.750 re f 211.500 775.875 184.500 0.750 re f 396.000 775.875 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 757.043 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 757.043 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 763.659 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Weekly Cost Per Student)] TJ ET BT 147.276 766.225 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 152.095 763.659 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [( \(2008 US Dollars\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 26.625 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Low Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 119.099 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 211.125 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 211.125 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 216.375 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Base Estimate)] TJ ET BT 283.026 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 395.625 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 395.625 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.875 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(High Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 490.263 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 26.625 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($35)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 211.125 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 211.125 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 216.375 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($142)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 395.625 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 395.625 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.875 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($157)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 722.330 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 625.964 184.875 0.750 re f 211.500 722.330 184.500 0.750 re f 211.500 625.964 184.500 0.750 re f 396.000 722.330 184.875 0.750 re f 396.000 625.964 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 625.964 0.750 97.116 re f 580.125 625.964 0.750 97.116 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 712.475 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sources: 2007 and 2008 CPS Outgoing Rotation Groups; 2008 CPS March Supplement; Child Care Module of the 2004 )] TJ ET BT 31.875 704.844 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(SIPP; Sadique et. al.; Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Securitys Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 31.875 697.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Survey. )] TJ ET BT 31.875 689.786 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 36.694 687.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Cost per student is calculated as the total cost of absenteeism in the United States divided by the number of persons under )] TJ ET BT 31.875 676.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(16 years of age or currently in high school. )] TJ ET BT 218.295 679.204 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 223.114 676.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Allows for use of informal care and work?from?home and assumes the elasticity )] TJ ET BT 31.875 668.417 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of output with respect to hours worked is 0.8. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses )] TJ ET BT 31.875 658.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. )] TJ ET BT 57.878 660.990 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 62.697 658.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with )] TJ ET BT 31.875 647.843 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(respect to hours worked is 1. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 517.406 650.408 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET BT 522.224 647.843 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes )] TJ ET BT 31.875 639.622 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that an adult must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours )] TJ ET BT 31.875 631.991 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(worked is 1. Assumes that households randomly choose whether males or females care for children.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.278 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Endnotes)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 211.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.671 211.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( These other industries include offices of health practitioners other than dentists, chiropractors, and optometrists, outpatient )] TJ ET BT 26.250 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care centers, home health care services, hospitals, nursing care facilities, and other health care services. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 480.892 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 486.313 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We define relevant )] TJ ET BT 26.250 187.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(occupations liberally to include pharmacists, physicians and surgeons, registered nurses, health diagnosing and treating )] TJ ET BT 26.250 175.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(practitioners, clinical laboratory technologists and technicians, diagnostic related technologists and technicians, EMTs and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(paramedics, health diagnosing and treating practitioner support techs, licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.800 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(medical records and health information technicians, miscellaneous health technologists and technicians, nursing, psychiatric )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.896 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and home health aides, medical assistants and other healthcare support occupations, and other healthcare practitioners and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 127.991 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(technical occupations. We exclude chiropractors, dentists, dietitians and nutritionists, optometrists, podiatrists, occupational, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(physical, radiation, recreational, respiratory, and other therapists, speech-language pathologists, veterinarians, dental )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hygienists, opticians \(dispensing\), therapists and dentists assistants, and administrative workers. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 449.449 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 454.870 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Taking workers personal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 92.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(leave benefits into account would be an especially important contribution. Persons with more leave might be more likely to stay )] TJ ET BT 26.250 80.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home to care for children. Once workers annual leave begins to run out, children may become more likely to resort to self-care, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 68.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(introducing important non-linearities into the relationship between the cost and length of school closure. And workers absences )] TJ ET BT 26.250 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(may substitute for leave that would have been taken later in the year, instead of reducing annual output. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.086 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 481.507 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( According to the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Bureau of Labor Statistics Employer Costs for Employee Compensation data, benefits make up 30% of all compensation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 552.984 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 558.405 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( See )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 30.372 577.500 746.628 re W n 1.000 1.000 1.000 rg 26.250 295.500 555.000 481.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 775.875 184.875 0.750 re f 211.500 775.875 184.500 0.750 re f 396.000 775.875 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 757.043 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 757.043 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 763.659 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Weekly Cost Per Student)] TJ ET BT 147.276 766.225 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 152.095 763.659 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [( \(2008 US Dollars\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 26.625 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Low Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 119.099 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 211.125 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 211.125 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 216.375 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Base Estimate)] TJ ET BT 283.026 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 395.625 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 395.625 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.875 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(High Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 490.263 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 26.625 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($35)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 211.125 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 211.125 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 216.375 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($142)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 395.625 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 395.625 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.875 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($157)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 722.330 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 625.964 184.875 0.750 re f 211.500 722.330 184.500 0.750 re f 211.500 625.964 184.500 0.750 re f 396.000 722.330 184.875 0.750 re f 396.000 625.964 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 625.964 0.750 97.116 re f 580.125 625.964 0.750 97.116 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 712.475 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sources: 2007 and 2008 CPS Outgoing Rotation Groups; 2008 CPS March Supplement; Child Care Module of the 2004 )] TJ ET BT 31.875 704.844 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(SIPP; Sadique et. al.; Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Securitys Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 31.875 697.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Survey. )] TJ ET BT 31.875 689.786 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 36.694 687.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Cost per student is calculated as the total cost of absenteeism in the United States divided by the number of persons under )] TJ ET BT 31.875 676.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(16 years of age or currently in high school. )] TJ ET BT 218.295 679.204 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 223.114 676.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Allows for use of informal care and work?from?home and assumes the elasticity )] TJ ET BT 31.875 668.417 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of output with respect to hours worked is 0.8. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses )] TJ ET BT 31.875 658.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. )] TJ ET BT 57.878 660.990 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 62.697 658.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with )] TJ ET BT 31.875 647.843 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(respect to hours worked is 1. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 517.406 650.408 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET BT 522.224 647.843 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes )] TJ ET BT 31.875 639.622 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that an adult must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours )] TJ ET BT 31.875 631.991 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(worked is 1. Assumes that households randomly choose whether males or females care for children.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.278 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Endnotes)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 211.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.671 211.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( These other industries include offices of health practitioners other than dentists, chiropractors, and optometrists, outpatient )] TJ ET BT 26.250 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care centers, home health care services, hospitals, nursing care facilities, and other health care services. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 480.892 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 486.313 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We define relevant )] TJ ET BT 26.250 187.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(occupations liberally to include pharmacists, physicians and surgeons, registered nurses, health diagnosing and treating )] TJ ET BT 26.250 175.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(practitioners, clinical laboratory technologists and technicians, diagnostic related technologists and technicians, EMTs and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(paramedics, health diagnosing and treating practitioner support techs, licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.800 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(medical records and health information technicians, miscellaneous health technologists and technicians, nursing, psychiatric )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.896 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and home health aides, medical assistants and other healthcare support occupations, and other healthcare practitioners and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 127.991 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(technical occupations. We exclude chiropractors, dentists, dietitians and nutritionists, optometrists, podiatrists, occupational, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(physical, radiation, recreational, respiratory, and other therapists, speech-language pathologists, veterinarians, dental )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hygienists, opticians \(dispensing\), therapists and dentists assistants, and administrative workers. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 449.449 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 454.870 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Taking workers personal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 92.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(leave benefits into account would be an especially important contribution. Persons with more leave might be more likely to stay )] TJ ET BT 26.250 80.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home to care for children. Once workers annual leave begins to run out, children may become more likely to resort to self-care, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 68.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(introducing important non-linearities into the relationship between the cost and length of school closure. And workers absences )] TJ ET BT 26.250 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(may substitute for leave that would have been taken later in the year, instead of reducing annual output. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.086 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 481.507 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( According to the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Bureau of Labor Statistics Employer Costs for Employee Compensation data, benefits make up 30% of all compensation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 552.984 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 558.405 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( See )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 30.372 577.500 746.628 re W n 1.000 1.000 1.000 rg 26.250 295.500 555.000 481.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 775.875 184.875 0.750 re f 211.500 775.875 184.500 0.750 re f 396.000 775.875 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 757.043 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 757.043 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 763.659 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Weekly Cost Per Student)] TJ ET BT 147.276 766.225 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 152.095 763.659 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [( \(2008 US Dollars\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 26.625 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Low Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 119.099 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 211.125 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 211.125 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 216.375 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Base Estimate)] TJ ET BT 283.026 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 395.625 757.043 185.250 0.750 re f 395.625 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 580.125 738.211 0.750 19.582 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.875 744.827 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(High Cost Estimate)] TJ ET BT 490.263 747.393 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 26.625 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($35)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 211.125 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 211.125 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 216.375 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($142)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 395.625 738.211 185.250 0.750 re f 395.625 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 580.125 722.330 0.750 16.631 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.875 728.356 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [($157)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 26.625 722.330 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 625.964 184.875 0.750 re f 211.500 722.330 184.500 0.750 re f 211.500 625.964 184.500 0.750 re f 396.000 722.330 184.875 0.750 re f 396.000 625.964 184.875 0.750 re f 26.625 625.964 0.750 97.116 re f 580.125 625.964 0.750 97.116 re f 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.875 712.475 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sources: 2007 and 2008 CPS Outgoing Rotation Groups; 2008 CPS March Supplement; Child Care Module of the 2004 )] TJ ET BT 31.875 704.844 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(SIPP; Sadique et. al.; Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Securitys Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 31.875 697.212 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Survey. )] TJ ET BT 31.875 689.786 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 36.694 687.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Cost per student is calculated as the total cost of absenteeism in the United States divided by the number of persons under )] TJ ET BT 31.875 676.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(16 years of age or currently in high school. )] TJ ET BT 218.295 679.204 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 223.114 676.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Allows for use of informal care and work?from?home and assumes the elasticity )] TJ ET BT 31.875 668.417 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of output with respect to hours worked is 0.8. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses )] TJ ET BT 31.875 658.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(work. )] TJ ET BT 57.878 660.990 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 62.697 658.425 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes that an adult must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with )] TJ ET BT 31.875 647.843 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(respect to hours worked is 1. If a male and female are equally closely related to a child, the female misses work. )] TJ ET BT 517.406 650.408 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET BT 522.224 647.843 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Assumes )] TJ ET BT 31.875 639.622 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that an adult must miss work in each household with at least one child and the elasticity of output with respect to hours )] TJ ET BT 31.875 631.991 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(worked is 1. Assumes that households randomly choose whether males or females care for children.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.278 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Endnotes)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 211.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 31.671 211.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( These other industries include offices of health practitioners other than dentists, chiropractors, and optometrists, outpatient )] TJ ET BT 26.250 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care centers, home health care services, hospitals, nursing care facilities, and other health care services. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 480.892 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 486.313 199.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We define relevant )] TJ ET BT 26.250 187.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(occupations liberally to include pharmacists, physicians and surgeons, registered nurses, health diagnosing and treating )] TJ ET BT 26.250 175.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(practitioners, clinical laboratory technologists and technicians, diagnostic related technologists and technicians, EMTs and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 163.705 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(paramedics, health diagnosing and treating practitioner support techs, licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 151.800 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(medical records and health information technicians, miscellaneous health technologists and technicians, nursing, psychiatric )] TJ ET BT 26.250 139.896 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and home health aides, medical assistants and other healthcare support occupations, and other healthcare practitioners and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 127.991 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(technical occupations. We exclude chiropractors, dentists, dietitians and nutritionists, optometrists, podiatrists, occupational, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 116.086 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(physical, radiation, recreational, respiratory, and other therapists, speech-language pathologists, veterinarians, dental )] TJ ET BT 26.250 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(hygienists, opticians \(dispensing\), therapists and dentists assistants, and administrative workers. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 449.449 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 454.870 104.181 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Taking workers personal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 92.277 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(leave benefits into account would be an especially important contribution. Persons with more leave might be more likely to stay )] TJ ET BT 26.250 80.372 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home to care for children. Once workers annual leave begins to run out, children may become more likely to resort to self-care, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 68.467 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(introducing important non-linearities into the relationship between the cost and length of school closure. And workers absences )] TJ ET BT 26.250 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(may substitute for leave that would have been taken later in the year, instead of reducing annual output. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.086 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 481.507 56.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( According to the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Bureau of Labor Statistics Employer Costs for Employee Compensation data, benefits make up 30% of all compensation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 552.984 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 558.405 44.658 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( See )] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(9)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 344 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 345 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 210.4223 31.6710 220.3429 ] >> endobj 345 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 346 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 347 0 R /Border [0 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767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(CDC \(2007\), pp. 9-10 for definition of categories [1]. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 252.772 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(6)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 258.193 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We include all persons under 16 years of age or in high school as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(students for this calculation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 149.266 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 154.687 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Of course our estimates are based on national demography data and do not take into account )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regional variation which might be salient at the local level. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.147 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 282.568 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Some may argue that household income quintiles are a poor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(measure of financial security because they do not account for households income needs, which vary by household size. We )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(recalculate income quintiles using household income adjusted for household size by dividing each households income by the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(square root of the number of persons in the household. The impact remains disparate. After this adjustment, a somewhat higher )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(percentage of households with all of their income at risk belong to the second or fourth income quintile and fewer belong to the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(third. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 50.635 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 56.056 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The elasticity of output with respect to hours of labor is defined as the percent change in output that is brought about by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a 1% change in hours worked. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 160.108 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.950 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Some of these household members would have stayed home anyway due to fear, the need to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 660.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care for sick children, or their own illness. Thus, our cost estimates are gross and not net. A calculation of net cost would need )] TJ ET BT 26.250 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to marry this economic analysis to a full blown epidemic model. We save this project for future research. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.534 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.376 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This method differs )] TJ ET BT 26.250 636.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from the method used by Sadique, Adams, and Edmunds \(2008\) because it assumes that the most common caretakers are )] TJ ET BT 26.250 624.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(childrens parents and family members, not necessarily the households head. The estimated cost of school closure is similar if )] TJ ET BT 26.250 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al.s method for identifying caretakers is used. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 278.785 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 289.627 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Because we have no data on earnings of members of the Armed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 600.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Forces, we assume that they are never available to care for their children in all of our estimates. We believe this is a reasonable )] TJ ET BT 26.250 588.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(assumption. In households where all adults are employed in the Armed Forces, we assume that children are not cared for by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household members in the event of an epidemic. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 239.229 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 250.071 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Sadique et. al. first proposed this sensitivity test.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.876 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 471.718 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This approach assumes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 565.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that all adults work at overlapping times. It is possible that the aunt and uncle do not work at the same time and that no work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(need be missed in this household. However, we know of no large public datasets that include the exact hours of the day all )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults in a household are at work. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 174.743 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(15)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 185.585 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Family day care provision is typically in the home of a neighborhood adult and is much )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(less formal than day care programs. It therefore might still be available if schools and day care programs were closed during a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(pandemic. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 73.937 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 84.779 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( An arrangement must be used at least once a week to be considered a regular arrangement. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 496.102 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.944 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(slightly underestimate the availability of informal child care because some kids are cared for by parents who do not work and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are not a part of their household. Presumably, it would be easy for these children to be cared for without anyone in their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household missing work. Unfortunately, these children cannot be distinguished in the data. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 418.610 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 429.452 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This is a conservative assumption )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(because some persons who provide child care in normal times work when they are not providing care. Moreover, some child )] TJ ET BT 26.250 457.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care providers provide care for more than one child, so not all households could expand their use of child care simultaneously )] TJ ET BT 26.250 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(without having many children cared for in the same room. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 276.601 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 287.443 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The Census does not report data on child care of 15 year olds, so )] TJ ET BT 26.250 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we assume that they have informal child care available to them at the same rate as 0-14 year olds. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 453.817 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 464.659 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Because the survey was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fielded in 2006, we use the CPI-U index to adjust the income groups for inflation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 375.797 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 386.639 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The survey breaks out the ability to work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 410.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from home for one month by household income level. It also reports that 87% of those who could work from home and have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 398.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(major responsibility for household children would be able to care for those children while working from home. To get the percent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 386.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who could provide care while working from home, we multiply the percent who could work from home in each income category )] TJ ET BT 26.250 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(by 0.87. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 63.651 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 74.493 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( CPS respondents report family income as a range. To combine family incomes into household income, we assign )] TJ ET BT 26.250 362.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income equal to the midpoint of the reported range. Persons who refused to answer the income question are randomly assigned )] TJ ET BT 26.250 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to an income group. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 115.131 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 125.973 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In the real world, not all industries are perfectly competitive and a workers compensation is not always )] TJ ET BT 26.250 338.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(equal to the value of her production. Goods prices also do not always match their social value, so the total revenue lost due to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 327.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(absenteeism is not an exact measure of the economic cost of this absenteeism. Therefore, estimates of economic cost will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(always be inexact. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 108.618 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 119.460 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This makes our cost estimate very conservative. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 332.946 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 343.788 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( To impute these earnings, we first calculate average )] TJ ET BT 26.250 303.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(weekly earnings for each worker in 2007 by dividing annual earnings by weeks worked in the 2008 CPS ASEC. We then take )] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the mean of these earnings among self-employed male workers in households with kids and where every adult worked for at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(least one week in 2007. In calculating these means, we multiply workers weights by the percent of weeks worked in 2007, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(inflating the weights of workers who were more likely to be in the labor force during any given week. Call the result ERNSEM07. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We now have an estimate of weekly earnings among the self-employed in 2007 in addition to our main dataset with earnings in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2008. We need to account for inflation and wage growth between 2007 and 2008. Using the ORGs, we calculate the percent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(change in mean nominal weekly earnings from 2007 to 2008 among all male workers in households with kids and no stay-at-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home adults. Call this change DERNM. We assume that earnings among male self-employed workers grew at the same rate as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings among other male workers and assign ERNSEM07\(1+DERNM\) as the weekly earnings for all self-employed male )] TJ ET BT 26.250 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers in our main dataset. We then repeat for female workers. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 306.397 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 317.239 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Sadique et. al. adjust for the presence of grandparents, but )] TJ ET BT 26.250 184.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(do not explain how they make this adjustment. They do not adjust for the presence of other non-employed adults.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 147.541 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(References)] TJ ET BT 26.250 120.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 120.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Centers for Disease Control: Interim Pre-Pandemic planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 26.250 108.182 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mitigation in the United States; 2007.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 99.696 Td /F1 7.5 Tf [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 81.146 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 81.146 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cauchemez S, Ferguson, NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, Nicoll A: Closure of Schools During an Influenza )] TJ ET BT 26.250 69.241 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis 2009, 8: 473-481.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.836 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(3.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 49.836 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology: Report to the President on U.S. Preparations for 2009 H1N1 )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 35.551 577.500 741.449 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(CDC \(2007\), pp. 9-10 for definition of categories [1]. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 252.772 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(6)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 258.193 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We include all persons under 16 years of age or in high school as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(students for this calculation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 149.266 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 154.687 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Of course our estimates are based on national demography data and do not take into account )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regional variation which might be salient at the local level. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.147 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 282.568 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Some may argue that household income quintiles are a poor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(measure of financial security because they do not account for households income needs, which vary by household size. We )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(recalculate income quintiles using household income adjusted for household size by dividing each households income by the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(square root of the number of persons in the household. The impact remains disparate. After this adjustment, a somewhat higher )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(percentage of households with all of their income at risk belong to the second or fourth income quintile and fewer belong to the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(third. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 50.635 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 56.056 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The elasticity of output with respect to hours of labor is defined as the percent change in output that is brought about by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a 1% change in hours worked. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 160.108 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.950 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Some of these household members would have stayed home anyway due to fear, the need to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 660.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care for sick children, or their own illness. Thus, our cost estimates are gross and not net. A calculation of net cost would need )] TJ ET BT 26.250 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to marry this economic analysis to a full blown epidemic model. We save this project for future research. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.534 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.376 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This method differs )] TJ ET BT 26.250 636.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from the method used by Sadique, Adams, and Edmunds \(2008\) because it assumes that the most common caretakers are )] TJ ET BT 26.250 624.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(childrens parents and family members, not necessarily the households head. The estimated cost of school closure is similar if )] TJ ET BT 26.250 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al.s method for identifying caretakers is used. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 278.785 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 289.627 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Because we have no data on earnings of members of the Armed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 600.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Forces, we assume that they are never available to care for their children in all of our estimates. We believe this is a reasonable )] TJ ET BT 26.250 588.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(assumption. In households where all adults are employed in the Armed Forces, we assume that children are not cared for by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household members in the event of an epidemic. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 239.229 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 250.071 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Sadique et. al. first proposed this sensitivity test.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.876 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 471.718 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This approach assumes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 565.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that all adults work at overlapping times. It is possible that the aunt and uncle do not work at the same time and that no work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(need be missed in this household. However, we know of no large public datasets that include the exact hours of the day all )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults in a household are at work. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 174.743 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(15)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 185.585 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Family day care provision is typically in the home of a neighborhood adult and is much )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(less formal than day care programs. It therefore might still be available if schools and day care programs were closed during a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(pandemic. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 73.937 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 84.779 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( An arrangement must be used at least once a week to be considered a regular arrangement. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 496.102 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.944 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(slightly underestimate the availability of informal child care because some kids are cared for by parents who do not work and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are not a part of their household. Presumably, it would be easy for these children to be cared for without anyone in their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household missing work. Unfortunately, these children cannot be distinguished in the data. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 418.610 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 429.452 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This is a conservative assumption )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(because some persons who provide child care in normal times work when they are not providing care. Moreover, some child )] TJ ET BT 26.250 457.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care providers provide care for more than one child, so not all households could expand their use of child care simultaneously )] TJ ET BT 26.250 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(without having many children cared for in the same room. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 276.601 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 287.443 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The Census does not report data on child care of 15 year olds, so )] TJ ET BT 26.250 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we assume that they have informal child care available to them at the same rate as 0-14 year olds. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 453.817 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 464.659 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Because the survey was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fielded in 2006, we use the CPI-U index to adjust the income groups for inflation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 375.797 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 386.639 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The survey breaks out the ability to work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 410.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from home for one month by household income level. It also reports that 87% of those who could work from home and have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 398.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(major responsibility for household children would be able to care for those children while working from home. To get the percent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 386.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who could provide care while working from home, we multiply the percent who could work from home in each income category )] TJ ET BT 26.250 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(by 0.87. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 63.651 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 74.493 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( CPS respondents report family income as a range. To combine family incomes into household income, we assign )] TJ ET BT 26.250 362.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income equal to the midpoint of the reported range. Persons who refused to answer the income question are randomly assigned )] TJ ET BT 26.250 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to an income group. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 115.131 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 125.973 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In the real world, not all industries are perfectly competitive and a workers compensation is not always )] TJ ET BT 26.250 338.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(equal to the value of her production. Goods prices also do not always match their social value, so the total revenue lost due to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 327.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(absenteeism is not an exact measure of the economic cost of this absenteeism. Therefore, estimates of economic cost will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(always be inexact. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 108.618 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 119.460 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This makes our cost estimate very conservative. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 332.946 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 343.788 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( To impute these earnings, we first calculate average )] TJ ET BT 26.250 303.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(weekly earnings for each worker in 2007 by dividing annual earnings by weeks worked in the 2008 CPS ASEC. We then take )] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the mean of these earnings among self-employed male workers in households with kids and where every adult worked for at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(least one week in 2007. In calculating these means, we multiply workers weights by the percent of weeks worked in 2007, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(inflating the weights of workers who were more likely to be in the labor force during any given week. Call the result ERNSEM07. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We now have an estimate of weekly earnings among the self-employed in 2007 in addition to our main dataset with earnings in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2008. We need to account for inflation and wage growth between 2007 and 2008. Using the ORGs, we calculate the percent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(change in mean nominal weekly earnings from 2007 to 2008 among all male workers in households with kids and no stay-at-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home adults. Call this change DERNM. We assume that earnings among male self-employed workers grew at the same rate as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings among other male workers and assign ERNSEM07\(1+DERNM\) as the weekly earnings for all self-employed male )] TJ ET BT 26.250 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers in our main dataset. We then repeat for female workers. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 306.397 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 317.239 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Sadique et. al. adjust for the presence of grandparents, but )] TJ ET BT 26.250 184.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(do not explain how they make this adjustment. They do not adjust for the presence of other non-employed adults.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 147.541 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(References)] TJ ET BT 26.250 120.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 120.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Centers for Disease Control: Interim Pre-Pandemic planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 26.250 108.182 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mitigation in the United States; 2007.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 99.696 Td /F1 7.5 Tf [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 81.146 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 81.146 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cauchemez S, Ferguson, NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, Nicoll A: Closure of Schools During an Influenza )] TJ ET BT 26.250 69.241 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis 2009, 8: 473-481.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.836 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(3.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 49.836 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology: Report to the President on U.S. Preparations for 2009 H1N1 )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 35.551 577.500 741.449 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(CDC \(2007\), pp. 9-10 for definition of categories [1]. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 252.772 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(6)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 258.193 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( We include all persons under 16 years of age or in high school as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(students for this calculation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 149.266 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 154.687 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Of course our estimates are based on national demography data and do not take into account )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regional variation which might be salient at the local level. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.147 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 282.568 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Some may argue that household income quintiles are a poor )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(measure of financial security because they do not account for households income needs, which vary by household size. We )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(recalculate income quintiles using household income adjusted for household size by dividing each households income by the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(square root of the number of persons in the household. The impact remains disparate. After this adjustment, a somewhat higher )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(percentage of households with all of their income at risk belong to the second or fourth income quintile and fewer belong to the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(third. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 50.635 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 56.056 684.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The elasticity of output with respect to hours of labor is defined as the percent change in output that is brought about by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a 1% change in hours worked. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 160.108 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.950 672.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Some of these household members would have stayed home anyway due to fear, the need to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 660.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care for sick children, or their own illness. Thus, our cost estimates are gross and not net. A calculation of net cost would need )] TJ ET BT 26.250 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to marry this economic analysis to a full blown epidemic model. We save this project for future research. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.534 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.376 648.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This method differs )] TJ ET BT 26.250 636.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from the method used by Sadique, Adams, and Edmunds \(2008\) because it assumes that the most common caretakers are )] TJ ET BT 26.250 624.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(childrens parents and family members, not necessarily the households head. The estimated cost of school closure is similar if )] TJ ET BT 26.250 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Sadique et. al.s method for identifying caretakers is used. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 278.785 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 289.627 612.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Because we have no data on earnings of members of the Armed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 600.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Forces, we assume that they are never available to care for their children in all of our estimates. We believe this is a reasonable )] TJ ET BT 26.250 588.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(assumption. In households where all adults are employed in the Armed Forces, we assume that children are not cared for by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household members in the event of an epidemic. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 239.229 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 250.071 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Sadique et. al. first proposed this sensitivity test.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.876 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 471.718 577.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This approach assumes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 565.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that all adults work at overlapping times. It is possible that the aunt and uncle do not work at the same time and that no work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(need be missed in this household. However, we know of no large public datasets that include the exact hours of the day all )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults in a household are at work. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 174.743 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(15)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 185.585 541.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Family day care provision is typically in the home of a neighborhood adult and is much )] TJ ET BT 26.250 529.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(less formal than day care programs. It therefore might still be available if schools and day care programs were closed during a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(pandemic. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 73.937 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 84.779 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( An arrangement must be used at least once a week to be considered a regular arrangement. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 496.102 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.944 517.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(slightly underestimate the availability of informal child care because some kids are cared for by parents who do not work and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are not a part of their household. Presumably, it would be easy for these children to be cared for without anyone in their )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(household missing work. Unfortunately, these children cannot be distinguished in the data. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 418.610 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 429.452 481.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This is a conservative assumption )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(because some persons who provide child care in normal times work when they are not providing care. Moreover, some child )] TJ ET BT 26.250 457.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(care providers provide care for more than one child, so not all households could expand their use of child care simultaneously )] TJ ET BT 26.250 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(without having many children cared for in the same room. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 276.601 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 287.443 446.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The Census does not report data on child care of 15 year olds, so )] TJ ET BT 26.250 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we assume that they have informal child care available to them at the same rate as 0-14 year olds. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 453.817 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 464.659 434.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Because the survey was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fielded in 2006, we use the CPI-U index to adjust the income groups for inflation. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 375.797 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 386.639 422.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( The survey breaks out the ability to work )] TJ ET BT 26.250 410.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from home for one month by household income level. It also reports that 87% of those who could work from home and have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 398.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(major responsibility for household children would be able to care for those children while working from home. To get the percent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 386.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(who could provide care while working from home, we multiply the percent who could work from home in each income category )] TJ ET BT 26.250 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(by 0.87. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 63.651 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 74.493 374.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( CPS respondents report family income as a range. To combine family incomes into household income, we assign )] TJ ET BT 26.250 362.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income equal to the midpoint of the reported range. Persons who refused to answer the income question are randomly assigned )] TJ ET BT 26.250 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to an income group. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 115.131 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 125.973 350.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( In the real world, not all industries are perfectly competitive and a workers compensation is not always )] TJ ET BT 26.250 338.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(equal to the value of her production. Goods prices also do not always match their social value, so the total revenue lost due to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 327.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(absenteeism is not an exact measure of the economic cost of this absenteeism. Therefore, estimates of economic cost will )] TJ ET BT 26.250 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(always be inexact. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 108.618 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 119.460 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( This makes our cost estimate very conservative. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 332.946 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 343.788 315.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( To impute these earnings, we first calculate average )] TJ ET BT 26.250 303.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(weekly earnings for each worker in 2007 by dividing annual earnings by weeks worked in the 2008 CPS ASEC. We then take )] TJ ET BT 26.250 291.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the mean of these earnings among self-employed male workers in households with kids and where every adult worked for at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 279.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(least one week in 2007. In calculating these means, we multiply workers weights by the percent of weeks worked in 2007, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 267.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(inflating the weights of workers who were more likely to be in the labor force during any given week. Call the result ERNSEM07. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 255.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We now have an estimate of weekly earnings among the self-employed in 2007 in addition to our main dataset with earnings in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 243.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2008. We need to account for inflation and wage growth between 2007 and 2008. Using the ORGs, we calculate the percent )] TJ ET BT 26.250 231.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(change in mean nominal weekly earnings from 2007 to 2008 among all male workers in households with kids and no stay-at-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 219.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(home adults. Call this change DERNM. We assume that earnings among male self-employed workers grew at the same rate as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 207.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(earnings among other male workers and assign ERNSEM07\(1+DERNM\) as the weekly earnings for all self-employed male )] TJ ET BT 26.250 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(workers in our main dataset. We then repeat for female workers. )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 306.397 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 317.239 196.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Sadique et. al. adjust for the presence of grandparents, but )] TJ ET BT 26.250 184.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(do not explain how they make this adjustment. They do not adjust for the presence of other non-employed adults.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 147.541 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(References)] TJ ET BT 26.250 120.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 120.087 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Centers for Disease Control: Interim Pre-Pandemic planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza )] TJ ET BT 26.250 108.182 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mitigation in the United States; 2007.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 99.696 Td /F1 7.5 Tf [(REFERENCE LINK)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 81.146 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 81.146 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cauchemez S, Ferguson, NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, Nicoll A: Closure of Schools During an Influenza )] TJ ET BT 26.250 69.241 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis 2009, 8: 473-481.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.836 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(3.)] TJ ET BT 38.132 49.836 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology: Report to the President on U.S. Preparations for 2009 H1N1 )] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(10)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Influenza)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 376 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 377 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 252.7717 766.5743 258.1927 776.4950 ] >> endobj 377 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 378 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 379 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 149.2657 754.6696 154.6867 764.5902 ] >> endobj 379 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 380 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 381 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 277.1467 742.7648 282.5677 752.6854 ] >> endobj 381 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 382 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 383 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 50.6347 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