Author Profile

Steven Riley

Affiliation: School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK

Recent Posts

Efficient simulation of the spatial transmission dynamics of influenza

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Early data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) suggest that previous studies over-estimated the within-country rate of spatial spread of pandemic influenza. As large spatially-resolved data sets are constructed, the need for efficient simulation code with which to investigate the spatial patterns of the pandemic becomes clear. Here, we describe a significant improvement in the efficiency of an individual-based stochastic disease simulation framework that has been used for multiple previous studies. We quantify the efficiency of the revised algorithm and present an alternative parameterization of the model in terms of the basic reproductive number. We apply the model to the population of Taiwan and demonstrate how the location of the initial seed can influence spatial incidence profiles and the overall spread of the epidemic. Differences in incidence are driven by the relative connectivity of alternate seed locations.

Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling

The 2009 influenza pandemic (H1N1pdm) has completed its first wave in many northern and southern hemisphere populations and many northern hemisphere populations are reporting substantial activity indicating the start of a second wave this autumn. As the global epidemiology of this novel strain unfolds, substantial policy challenges will continue to present themselves for the next 12 to 18 months. Here, we anticipate six public health challenges and identify data that are required for public health decision making. In particular, we suggest studies that will generate data not otherwise available from routine surveillance. Representative serological surveys stand out as a critical source of data with which to reduce uncertainty around policy choices for both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions after the initial wave has passed. Also, monitoring the time course of incidence of severe H1N1pdm cases will give a clear picture of variability in underlying transmissibility of the virus during population wide changes in behavior such as school vacations and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. In addition, we address low resource settings where routine surveillance for influenza has not been established and suggest alternative ways to collect data for the 2009 (and beyond) influenza H1N1 pandemic.

The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, April – July 2009

Background

Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely.

Methods and Findings

We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data: medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness in New York, were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases:hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases that died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval, CI 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-9x lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons 18 and older, and lowest in children 5-17. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest.

Conclusions

These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with greatest impact in young children and non-elderly adults. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the proportion infected or symptomatic were lower.