Based on the observations since 1900, one earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater, 15 earthquakes of magnitude 7-7.9 and 134 earthquakes of magnitude 6-6.9 on the Richter scale are expected each year, worldwide.
Tehran, the capital city and the most inhabited city of Iran, is located in a high seismic zone that is the result of its location in the main part of Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. The city has recorded many earthquakes during its history.
The Bam earthquake was the latest major earthquake in Iran, this shook the Bam city and a large area of the Kerman province on December 26, 2003.
This disaster made the Iranians more cautious about the same event in the capital city of Tehran, to an extent that the Iranian government considered moving the capital to another city
To mitigate the damage from the earthquakes, some precautionary actions can be taken, such as earthquake insurance or fixing high furniture securely; however, people in both developing and developed countries do not utilize these actions.
The question "Why some people become prepared for natural hazards but not all?" or in other words "What motivates people to take precautionary actions in order to mitigate damage from the hazards?" has been addressed abundantly in the literature. The answers are varied depending on the type of hazard and the region studied. The findings show that the income and economic level
Only a few researches have studied the factors associated with earthquake preparedness in Iran. As indicated above, the factors may vary between regions. The latest published research studied the factors using a KAP study with data from 2007.
After the Bam earthquake, the Iranian government has executed several preparedness programs. It is thus necessary to assess the efficiency of these programs and to identify the social groups that are in most need of related interventions. We also considered it necessary to reevaluate the population preparedness for earthquake and identify differences among different social groups. In addition, we aimed to estimate the associated factors using statistical methods.
The target population included residents of Tehran 15 years of age or older, staying in Tehran in the year of 2009. Initially, the sample size for the estimation of components of interest (Knowledge, Attitude and Practice regarding earthquake preparedness) was calculated using n=(z21-α/2×p×(1-p))/d2 with p=0.50 for each component considering α=0.05 and the precision of 3% (d=0.03) which yielded a total number of 1067 to be a reasonable for the aims of this study. However, using a random stratified-systematic sampling method, 1195 records were finally sampled.
First, in each of the 22 city's districts, the number of samples were calculated proportionally to the size of the district's population. Second, a block was chosen randomly in each district. Finally, trained interviewers started from the first unit of the block, filled the questionnaire for the household based on the responses from a person who was older than 15 years and capable to answer the questions. Then the interviewer systematically skipped next three units, interviewed the fifth household and continued until the end of the block. In the case that there were not enough samples in the block, interviewers filled the remaining questionnaires in the right hand side block.
Source: Available online at https://abbasimehr.ir/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/tehran_fault_map.jpg
The score of the KAP components were analyzed and median used as the cut off point for categorizing these components, such that if an observation's knowledge score was bellow the median, that observation was considered as having low knowledge. The same applied to the attitude and practice components and three new binary variables extracted.
We used frequency tables to present the characteristics of study population. As the "other" group in the marital status category and the "military" group in the occupation category had a small number of observations, we removed them from further analysis in this study. Cross-tabulation was used in order to present the distribution of the answers based on the factor variables for each component and chi-square test applied to test whether the components and demographic variable were independent or not. Instead of chi-square p-value, the p-value of Fisher Exact test is reported wherever it was possible to use this test.
To assess the relationship of demographic factors and KAP components by adjusting other factors, multiple binary logistic regression was used. For each regression model, the significance level and odd ratio and its 95% confidence interval are reported. Factors which were significant (at α≤0.2 level) at previous univariate tests entered in the regression model and the forward likelihood ratio method was used to dismiss the effect of non-significant factors. As low knowledge and attitude toward earthquake were significant factors for practice components, we entered these two component as well as other significant factors into the regression model for low practice. P-value < 0.05 was supposed as significant for all logistic regressions and 0.05 assigned as entry probability for the stepwise method.
Between June and October 2009, 1195 Tehran's residents were interviewed in Tehran, Iran. The characteristics of the study population are shown in Table I. Of the participants, 717 (60.1%) were aged 21-45 years old and the ratio of male to female was nearly 1. In addition, 322 (27.0%) had received education lower than high school or were or illiterate and about 30% of the participants were single. Furthermore, 959 (79.9%) of the participants had faced an earthquake at least once in the past and 1014 (90.9%) of them had been living in Tehran for more than ten years. Besides, 1076 (90.0%), 1160 (97.1%), and 490 (41.0%) achieved half of the possible scores for knowledge, attitude and practice components, respectively.
*The difference between total frequencies for each variable is due to the missing values.
†Sum of percent column for each variable may not be 100 because of the decimal rounding.
Variable | Group | Frequency* | Percent† |
---|---|---|---|
Age group | |||
15-12 | 133 | 11.1% | |
21-45 | 717 | 60.1% | |
46-65 | 266 | 22.3% | |
>65 | 78 | 6.5% | |
Sex | |||
Male | 623 | 52.1% | |
Female | 572 | 47.9% | |
Educational level | |||
Illiterate | 55 | 4.6% | |
Under high school | 267 | 22.4% | |
High school | 516 | 43.3% | |
Higher educations | 353 | 29.6% | |
Earthquake experience | |||
Yes | 949 | 79.9% | |
No | 238 | 20.1% | |
Home ownership | |||
Owner | 808 | 68.7% | |
Tenure | 368 | 31.3% | |
Length of residence | |||
Less than 3 years | 35 | 3.1% | |
3 to 10 years | 66 | 5.9% | |
More than 10 years | 1014 | 90.9% | |
Region | |||
Low risk region | 438 | 36.7% | |
Southern high risk region | 335 | 28.0% | |
Northern high risk region | 422 | 35.3% | |
Marital status | |||
Single | 353 | 36.7% | |
Married | 819 | 28.0% | |
Other | 16 | 35.3% | |
Occupation | |||
Labor, businessman, or employee | 418 | 35.3% | |
Student | 238 | 20.1% | |
Housewife | 379 | 32.0% | |
Jobless | 47 | 4.0% | |
Military | 6 | 0.5% | |
Retired | 97 | 8.2% |
Table II displays the results of univariate analysis of the factors affecting KAP components as well as the association between knowledge and attitude components with practice.
Results from Table II show that low knowledge about earthquake was significantly associated with higher age groups and lack of previous earthquake experience, and had a significant association with the occupation and region of the participant. Lower attitude was significantly associated with increasing age, length of residence and being married. The attitude component also had a significant negative association with educational level and was associated with sex, region and occupation of the participant. Furthermore, there was a significant association between the practice component and previous earthquake experience, region of the participant, low knowledge about earthquake and low attitude toward earthquake, and there was a significant negative relation between educational level and practice component. It should be noted that this results are tested independently; it means that the associations found here might be confounded by the effect of other factors.
* Fisher exact test
Factor
Group
Low knowledge
Low attitude
Low Practice
n (%)
p-value
n (%)
p-value
n (%)
p-value
Age group
0.036
<0.001
0.336
15-20
40 (30.3%)
81 (61.4%)
59 (44.4%)
21-45
312 (43.6%)
358 (50.2%)
318 (44.4%)
46-65
114 (43.5%)
185 (72.5%)
123 (46.2%)
>65
34 (44.2%)
58 (76.3%)
43 (55.1%)
Sex*
0.557
0.018
0.245
Male
267 (43.0%)
334 (54.7%)
273 (43.9%)
Female
234 (41.3%)
348 (61.5%)
271 (47.4%)
Educational level
0.171
<0.001
<0.001
Illiterate
26 (48.1%)
43 (81.1%)
39 (70.9%)
Under high school
124 (46.4%)
171 (66.3%)
152 (56.0%)
High school
215 (42.2%)
312 (61.1%)
223 (43.3%)
Higher educations
135 (38.2%)
154 (43.9%)
128 (36.3%)
Marital status*
0.561
<0.001
0.201
Single
142 (40.5%)
171 (49.0%)
149 (42.2%)
Married
345 (42.4%)
496 (61.5%)
380 (46.5%)
Occupation
0.040
0.001
0.108
Labor, businessman, or employee
190 (45.6%)
217 (52.8%)
180 (43.2%)
Student
79 (33.3%)
122 (51.5%)
96 (40.3%)
Housewife
165 (43.9%)
246 (65.8%)
189 (49.9%)
Jobless
20 (42.6%)
27 (57.4%)
23 (48.9%)
Retired
41 (43.2%)
60 (65.2%)
49 (50.5%)
Home ownership*
0.949
0.277
0.487
Owner
340 (42.3%)
468 (59.1%)
374 (46.3%)
Tenure
154 (42.1%)
204 (55.6%)
162 (44.0%)
Earthquake experience*
<0.001
>0.999
0.019
Yes
363 (38.5%)
546 (58.0%)
414 (43.6%)
No
132 (55.5%)
133 (58.1%)
124 (52.3%)
Length of residence
0.933
0.028
0.231
Less than 3 years
13 (37.1%)
14 (40.0%)
20 (57.1%)
3 to 10 years
27 (40.9%)
36 (54.5%)
26 (39.4%)
More than 10 years
402 (39.9%)
610 (61.1%)
454 (44.8%)
Region
0.004
0.006
0.011
Low risk region
204 (46.9%)
254 (58.7%)
178 (40.7%)
Southern high risk region
117 (35.0%)
210 (64.0%)
151 (45.1%)
Northern high risk region
180 (43.0%)
218 (52.4%)
215 (50.9%)
Low knowledge*
-
-
<0.001
Yes
-
-
281 (56.1%)
No
-
-
259 (37.8%)
Low attitude*
-
-
0.033
Yes
-
-
325 (47.7%)
No
-
-
205 (41.4%)
In order to adjust for the effect of possible confounders, a multiple binary logistic regression method was used. Table III shows the result of logistic regression of knowledge component on factors using forward method. The result of this analysis shows that lack of previous earthquake experience, region and occupation of the participants remained as significant predictors for low knowledge.
† Only the factors that were significant in the last step are reported here * P < 0.01, ** P < 0.001
Factor†
Group
OR
95% CI
Earthquake experience
Yes
1
No**
1.980
1.471
2.665
Region
Low risk region
1
Southern high risk region*
0.618
0.456
0.836
Northern high risk region
0.864
0.655
1.141
Occupation
Student
1
Labor, businessman, or employee*
1.786
1.272
2.507
Housewife*
1.732
1.223
2.451
Jobless
1.773
0.925
3.399
Retired
1.617
0.985
2.655
Older age and lower educational level remained as risk factors on low attitude toward earthquake (Table IV). In addition, low practice was significantly linked to lower levels of education, low knowledge and region of the participants when educational level, previous earthquake experience, region of the participant, low knowledge and low attitude were entered in a multivariate logistic regression, as shown in Table V.
† Only the factors that were significant in the last step are reported here * P < 0.01, ** P < 0.001
Factor†
Group
OR
95% CI
Age group
21-45
1
15-20
1.313
0.883
1.953
45-65**
2.233
1.608
3.100
> 65*
2.252
1.256
4.039
Educational level
Higher education
1
Illiterate*
3.363
1.573
7.188
Under high school**
1.926
1.352
2.742
High school**
1.806
1.352
2.411
† Only the factors that were significant in the last step are reported here * P < 0.05, ** P < 0.001
Factor†
Group
OR
95% CI
Educational level
Higher education
1
Illiterate**
4.825
2.517
9.251
Under high school**
2.422
1.721
3.408
High school*
1.365
1.025
1.819
Low knowledge
No
1
Yes**
2.110
1.656
2.688
Region
Low risk region
1
Southern high risk region
1.147
0.845
1.558
Northern high risk region**
1.711
1.289
2.271
Our findings showed that people with a lower educational level are at higher risk of unpreparedness than people with a higher education. People in the Northern high-risk regions are less prepared than people in low-risk regions. The analysis also showed that low knowledge can cause low preparedness. Low knowledge, however, is affected by previous earthquake experience, the region and occupation by itself. Furthermore, the attitude component was also affected by the educational level and age group.
In the latest study conducted in Tehran
In our study, the attitude toward earthquake was not a significant factor for taking precautionary actions against an earthquake after multivariate analysis, however, Tekeli‐Yeşil et al.
As in other cities around the world, different regions of Tehran have different socio-economic characteristics . If we consider the region in our study as a socio-economic factor, our findings replicate the effect of economic level and social classes on the practice component which was shown in the USA
Although we tried to assess the effect of all the factors used by previous studies, we did not have data on some of them, such as the risk perception which was employed previously.
Our findings show that general education, region and knowledge about earthquakes are the factors which can influence the behavior of Tehran residents during an earthquake. Therefore, in order to mitigate the damage from future earthquakes, it will be importnat to increase the population's general education as well as their knowledge about earthquakes, especially for those in high-risk regions.