PLOS Currents Disasters

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Coordinating the Provision of Health Services in Humanitarian Crises: a Systematic Review of Suggested Models

August 3, 2016 · Research Article

Background: Our objective was to identify published models of coordination between entities funding or delivering health services in humanitarian crises, whether the coordination took place during or after the crises.

Methods: We included reports describing models of coordination in sufficient detail to allow reproducibility. We also included reports describing implementation of identified models, as case studies. We searched Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and the WHO Global Health Library. We also searched websites of relevant organizations. We followed standard systematic review methodology.

Results: Our search captured 14,309 citations. The screening process identified 34 eligible papers describing five models of coordination of delivering health services: the “Cluster Approach” (with 16 case studies), the 4Ws “Who is Where, When, doing What” mapping tool (with four case studies), the “Sphere Project” (with two case studies), the “5×5” model (with one case study), and the “model of information coordination” (with one case study). The 4Ws and the 5×5 focus on coordination of services for mental health, the remaining models do not focus on a specific health topic. The Cluster approach appears to be the most widely used. One case study was a mixed implementation of the Cluster approach and the Sphere model. We identified no model of coordination for funding of health service.

Conclusion: This systematic review identified five proposed coordination models that have been implemented by entities funding or delivering health service in humanitarian crises. There is a need to compare the effect of these different models on outcomes such as availability of and access to health services.

Coping Strategies for Landslide and Flood Disasters: A Qualitative Study of Mt. Elgon Region, Uganda

July 11, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: The occurrence of landslides and floods in East Africa has increased over the past decades with enormous Public Health implications and massive alterations in the lives of those affected. In Uganda, the Elgon region is reported to have the highest occurrence of landslides and floods making this area vulnerable. This study aimed at understanding both coping strategies and the underlying causes of vulnerability to landslides and floods in the Mt. Elgon region.

Methods: We conducted a qualitative study in three districts of Bududa, Manafwa and Butalejja in the Mt. Elgon region in eastern Uganda. Six Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and eight Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) were conducted. We used trained research assistants (moderator and note taker) to collect data. All discussions were audio taped, and were transcribed verbatim before analysis. We explored both coping strategies and underlying causes of vulnerability. Data were analysed using latent content analysis; through identifying codes from which basis categories were generated and grouped into themes.

Results: The positive coping strategies used to deal with landslides and floods included adoption of good farming methods, support from government and other partners, livelihood diversification and using indigenous knowledge in weather forecasting and preparedness. Relocation was identified as unsustainable because people often returned back to high risk areas. The key underlying causes of vulnerability were; poverty, population pressure making people move to high risk areas, unsatisfactory knowledge on disaster preparedness and, cultural beliefs affecting people’s ability to cope.

Conclusion: This study revealed that deep rooted links to poverty, culture and unsatisfactory knowledge on disaster preparedness were responsible for failure to overcome the effects to landslides and floods in disaster prone communities of Uganda. However, good farming practices and support from the government and implementation partners were shown to be effective in enabling the community to lessen the negative effects disasters. This calls for high impact innovative interventions focused in addressing these underlying causes as well as involvement of all stakeholders in scaling the effective coping strategies in order to build resilience in this community and other similarly affected areas.

Key words: Coping, Underlying causes, Floods, Landslides, Mt. Elgon, Uganda

Codified Hashtags for Weather Warning on Twitter: an Italian Case Study

July 5, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: During emergencies increasing numbers of messages are shared through social media platforms becoming a primary source of information for lay people and emergency managers. For Twitter codified hashtagging is emerging as a practical way to coordinate messages during emergencies and quickly identify relevant information. This paper considers a case study on the use of codified hashtags concerning weather warning in Italy in three different regions.

Methods: From November 3rd to December 2nd 2014, tweets identified by the 3 codified hashtags #allertameteoTOS, #allertameteoLIG and #allertameteoPIE were retrieved, collecting a total of 35,558 tweets published by 7361 unique tweets authors, with the aim to assess if codified hashtags could represent an effective way to align formal and informal sources of information during weather related emergencies. An auxiliary R-package was built to lead the analytics used in this study. Authors performed a manual coding of users, hashtags and content of messages of all Twitter data considered.

Results: Content analysis showed that tweets were overwhelmingly related to situational updates, with a high percentage containing geo-location information. Communication patterns of different user types were discussed for the three contexts. In accordance with previous studies, individuals showed an active participation primarily functioning as information hub during the emergency.

Discussion: In the proposed cases codified hashtags have proven to be an effective tool to convey useful information on Twitter by formal and informal sources. Where institutions supported the use of the predefined hashtag in communication activities, like in Tuscany, messages were very focused, with more than 90% of tweets being situational updates. In this perspective, use of codified hashtags may potentially improve the performance of systems for automatic information retrieval and processing during disasters.

Keywords: social media, emergency management, Twitter, severe weather

How Bad Is It? Usefulness of the “7eed Model” for Scoring Severity and Level of Need in Complex Emergencies

June 28, 2016 · Research Article
Figure1

Background: Humanitarian assistance is designated to save lives and alleviate suffering among people affected by disasters. In 2014, close to 25 billion USD was allocated to humanitarian assistance, more than 80% of it from governmental donors and EU institutions. Most of these funds are devoted to Complex Emergencies (CE). It is widely accepted that the needs of the affected population should be the main determinant for resource allocations of humanitarian funding. However, to date no common, systematic, and transparent system for needs-based allocations exists. In an earlier paper, an easy-to-use model, “the 7eed model”, based on readily available indicators that distinguished between levels of severity among disaster-affected countries was presented. The aim of this paper is to assess the usefulness of the 7eed model in regards to 1) data availability, 2) variations between CE effected countries and sensitivity to change over time, and 3) reliability in capturing severity and levels of need.

Method: We applied the 7eed model to 25 countries with CE using data from 2013 to 2015. Data availability and indicator value variations were assessed using heat maps. To calculate a severity score and a needs score, we applied a standardised mathematical formula, based on the UTSTEIN template. We assessed the model for reliability on previous CEs with a “known” outcome in terms of excess mortality.

Results: Most of the required data was available for nearly all countries and indicators, and availability increased over time. The 7eed model was able to discriminate between levels of severity and needs among countries. Comparison with historical complex disasters showed a correlation between excess mortality and severity score.

Conclusion: Our study indicates that the proposed 7eed model can serve as a useful tool for setting funding levels for humanitarian assistance according to measurable levels of need. The 7eed model provides national level information but does not take into account local variations or specific contextual factors. 

Socio-demographic Predictors for Urban Community Disaster Health Risk Perception and Household Based Preparedness in a Chinese Urban City

June 27, 2016 · Research Article

Objectives: There is limited evidence on urban Asian communities’ disaster risk perceptions and household level preparedness. Hong Kong is characterized by high population density, and is susceptible to large-scale natural disasters and health crises such as typhoons, fires and infectious disease outbreaks. This research paper investigates the rates and predictors of urban community disaster risk perception, awareness and preparedness, at individual and household levels.

Methods: A randomized cross-sectional, population-based telephone survey study was conducted among the Cantonese-speaking population aged over 15 years in Hong Kong. Descriptive statistics were reported. A stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the independent associations between risk perceptions, socioeconomic factors, household characteristics, and personal background.

Findings: Final study sample comprised of 1002 respondents with a 63% response rate. The majority of respondents (82.3%) did not perceive Hong Kong as a disaster-susceptible city. Half (54.6%) reported beliefs that the local population had lower disaster awareness than other global cities. Infectious disease outbreak (72.4%), typhoon (12.6%), and fire (7.1%) were ranked as the most-likely-to-occur population-based disasters. Although over 77% believed that basic first aid training was necessary for improving individual disaster preparedness, only a quarter (26.1%) of respondents reported participation in training.

Conclusion: Despite Hong Kong’s high level of risk, general public perceptions of disaster in Hong Kong were low, and little preparedness has occurred at the individual or household levels. This report has potential to inform the development of related policies and risk communication strategies in Asian urban cities.

Behavior Problems and Post-traumatic Stress Symptoms in Children Beginning School: A Comparison of Pre- and Post-Earthquake Groups

June 22, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: Literature reviews caution that estimating the effects of disasters on the behavior of children following a disaster is difficult without baseline information and few studies report the effects of earthquakes on young children. In addition the relationship between age at the time of disaster and consequential behavior problems have not been reported for young children who experience disaster-related stress during a developmentally sensitive period.

Methods: Behavior problems and symptoms of post-traumatic stress (PTS) were reported for two groups of children from nearby neighborhoods during their first term at school, using the Behavior Problem Index by teacher report, following approved informed consent procedures. Data on one group, “Pre-EQ” (N=297), was collected four years before the beginning of the earthquakes on children born 2001-2002. Data on the second group, “Post-EQ” (N=212), was collected approximately three to four years after the beginning of the earthquakes on children born 2007-2009 and living in heavily damaged neighborhoods. The Post-EQ group had significantly more children from high socioeconomic neighborhoods but no other significant differences on main demographic characteristics.

Results: The mean behavior problem score was significantly higher in the Post-EQ group (Mean =6.11) as compared to the Pre-EQ group (Mean = 3.78). PTS symptoms were also significantly higher in the Post-EQ group (Mean =2.91) as compared to the Pre-EQ group (Mean=1.98) and more children had high PTS scores (20.9% v. 8.8%, OR= 2.73, 95%CI =1.57, 4.76). Model testing identified that a younger age at the time of exposure was the only significant predictor of high numbers of PTS symptoms in the Post-EQ group.

Discussion: Rates of teacher-reported behavior problems in young children more than doubled following the Christchurch earthquakes. Younger children may be more vulnerable to the effects of earthquakes that occur during a developmentally sensitive period. Additional research is needed to consider the effects of age and duration of disaster effects to better understand the effects of disasters on children, their families and communities.

Needs of Internally Displaced Women and Children in Baghdad, Karbala, and Kirkuk, Iraq

June 10, 2016 · Research Article

Background: The continuing conflict in Iraq has now created an estimated four million internally displaced persons (IDPs). The bulk of recently displaced persons are in Central Iraq, often in insecure and difficult situations.

Objective: To determine the health status and health needs of women and children, age 15 and under, among a sample of this IDP population in Kirkuk, Baghdad, and Karbala governorates.

Methods: Data were collected from the senior female in 1216 families which contained 3665 children living in 45 makeshift settlements.

Findings: The majority of IDPs were living in tents or religious centers. Repeated displacements were common. Kidnappings were reported by 5.2% of families, and 7.9% of families reported a death of a family member during or after displacement. Intentional violence accounted for 72.3% of deaths. Only a third of children in school at the time of displacement continued in school. On average, households had received assistance on 3.2 occasions since displacement, food being the most common form. Access to health services was difficult. Some form of transport was often required. Few women knew where to secure antenatal services and many did not know where childhood immunization services were available. During or after displacement 307 women had delivered or were currently pregnant. Complications of pregnancies were common, with a quarter reporting anemia, and 22.1% experiencing hemorrhage. Both communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were common in the women and children in the survey. Scabies, diarrhea and lice were common among children. Among women, hypertension accounted for 36.6% of NCDs and type 2 diabetes for 15.9%. Domestic violence directed against women was reported in 17.4% of families and against children in 26.6%

Interpretation: Women and children in IDP settlements of Central Iraq experience many vulnerabilities involving their health, education and their environment, in addition to living in physical danger. While some external assistance was received, much more is needed to meet the needs of a displaced population which is unlikely to return home soon.

Effectiveness of Interventions, Programs and Strategies for Gender-based Violence Prevention in Refugee Populations: An Integrative Review

April 19, 2016 · Research Article

Background: Gender based violence (GBV) remains one of the most serious threats to the health and safety of women and girls worldwide. The problem is even more pronounced in refugee populations where women and girls are at increased risk of violence. In 2015, UNHCR reported the highest number of forcibly displaced people in recorded history. Despite growing need, there have been few rigorous evaluations of interventions aimed at primary GBV prevention and no systematic reviews of GBV prevention efforts specifically focused on refugee populations; reviews to date have primarily examined prevention of conflict related sexual violence, with very limited focus on other forms of GBV such as intimate partner violence

Methods: This study reviewed the scientific literature addressing strategies for primary prevention of GBV and their effectiveness among refugee populations over the past ten years (2006 to 2015). Narrative content analysis methods were used to extract findings related to prevention activities/programs recommended by the global humanitarian community, such as sociocultural norms change, rebuilding family and community support structures, improving accountability systems, designing effective services and facilities, working with formal and traditional legal systems, monitoring and documenting GBV, and/or engaging men and boys in GBV prevention and response.

Results: Study findings indicate that a range of GBV prevention activities recommended by the global humanitarian community are currently being applied in a variety of settings. However, there remains a limited body of evidence on the effectiveness of GBV prevention programs, interventions, and strategies, especially among refugee populations.

Conclusion: Commonly agreed upon standards or guidelines for evaluation of GBV prevention programming, and publication of evaluations conducted using these guidelines, could assist humanitarian stakeholders to build and disseminate an evidence base of effective GBV prevention interventions, programs and strategies. Evaluation of GBV prevention efforts, especially among refugee populations, must be given higher priority to justify continuation or revision of recommended GBV activities/programs being implemented in diverse humanitarian settings.

A Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience Composite Indicators

March 14, 2016 · Research Article
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Introduction: In the past decade significant attention has been given to the development of tools that attempt to measure the vulnerability, risk or resilience of communities to disasters. Particular attention has been given to the development of composite indices to quantify these concepts mirroring their deployment in other fields such as sustainable development. Whilst some authors have published reviews of disaster vulnerability, risk and resilience composite indicator methodologies, these have been of a limited nature. This paper seeks to dramatically expand these efforts by analysing 106 composite indicator methodologies to understand the breadth and depth of practice.

Methods: An extensive search of the academic and grey literature was undertaken for composite indicator and scorecard methodologies that addressed multiple/all hazards; included social and economic aspects of risk, vulnerability or resilience; were sub-national in scope; explained the method and variables used; focussed on the present-day; and, had been tested or implemented. Information on the index construction, geographic areas of application, variables used and other relevant data was collected and analysed.

Results: Substantial variety in construction practices of composite indicators of risk, vulnerability and resilience were found. Five key approaches were identified in the literature, with the use of hierarchical or deductive indices being the most common. Typically variables were chosen by experts, came from existing statistical datasets and were combined by simple addition with equal weights. A minimum of 2 variables and a maximum of 235 were used, although approximately two thirds of methodologies used less than 40 variables. The 106 methodologies used 2298 unique variables, the most frequently used being common statistical variables such as population density and unemployment rate. Classification of variables found that on average 34% of the variables used in each methodology related to the social environment, 25% to the disaster environment, 20% to the economic environment, 13% to the built environment, 6% to the natural environment and 3% were other indices. However variables specifically measuring action to mitigate or prepare for disasters only comprised 12%, on average, of the total number of variables in each index. Only 19% of methodologies employed any sensitivity or uncertainty analysis and in only a single case was this comprehensive.

Discussion: A number of potential limitations of the present state of practice and how these might impact on decision makers are discussed. In particular the limited deployment of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and the low use of direct measures of disaster risk, vulnerability and resilience could significantly limit the quality and reliability of existing methodologies. Recommendations for improvements to indicator development and use are made, as well as suggested future research directions to enhance the theoretical and empirical knowledge base for composite indicator development.

Assessing Households Preparedness for Earthquakes: An Exploratory Study in the Development of a Valid and Reliable Persian-version Tool

February 25, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: Iran is placed among countries suffering from the highest number of earthquake casualties. Household preparedness, as one component of risk reduction efforts, is often supported in quake-prone areas. In Iran, lack of a valid and reliable household preparedness tool was reported by previous disaster studies. This study is aimed to fill this gap by developing a valid and reliable tool for assessing household preparedness in the event of an earthquake.

Methods: This survey was conducted through three phases including literature review and focus group discussions with the participation of eight key informants, validity measurements and reliability measurements. Field investigation was completed with the participation of 450 households within three provinces of Iran. Content validity, construct validity, the use of factor analysis; internal consistency using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, and test-retest reliability were carried out to develop the tool.

Results: Based on the CVIs, ranging from 0.80 to 0.100, and exploratory factor analysis with factor loading of more than 0.5, all items were valid. The amount of Cronbach’s alpha (0.7) and test-retest examination by Spearman correlations indicated that the scale was also reliable. The final instrument consisted of six categories and 18 questions including actions at the time of earthquakes, nonstructural safety, structural safety, hazard map, communications, drill, and safety skills.

Conclusion: Using a Persian-version tool that is adjusted to the socio-cultural determinants and native language may result in more trustful information on earthquake preparedness. It is suggested that disaster managers and researchers apply this tool in their future household preparedness projects. Further research is needed to make effective policies and plans for transforming preparedness knowledge into behavior.

Characteristics of an Effective International Humanitarian Assistance: A Systematic Review

February 25, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: The objective of this study is to identify the effectiveness characteristics, review the definition of them, and develop a conceptual mapping of existing domains in the field of International Humanitarian Assistance (IHA).

Methods: We conducted a systematic review and searched the major databases (Science Direct, Scopus, Springer and Pubmed) and grey literature, including references of potentially eligible articles and conference proceedings through March 2015. Articles were included if they focused on IHA effectiveness. Reviewers independently identified the eligible studies and extracted data.

Results: 10 studies were included and 48 characteristics were identified. There is a lack of scientific studies and agreement on the characteristics of IHA effectiveness. 

Conclusion: This study could be the step toward an understanding of IHA effectiveness characteristics and its definitions with the findings making a base line for more research in this area. 

Rapid and Near Real-Time Assessments of Population Displacement Using Mobile Phone Data Following Disasters: The 2015 Nepal Earthquake

February 24, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: Sudden impact disasters often result in the displacement of large numbers of people. These movements can occur prior to events, due to early warning messages, or take place post-event due to damages to shelters and livelihoods as well as a result of long-term reconstruction efforts. Displaced populations are especially vulnerable and often in need of support. However, timely and accurate data on the numbers and destinations of displaced populations are extremely challenging to collect across temporal and spatial scales, especially in the aftermath of disasters. Mobile phone call detail records were shown to be a valid data source for estimates of population movements after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, but their potential to provide near real-time ongoing measurements of population displacements immediately after a natural disaster has not been demonstrated.

Methods: A computational architecture and analytical capacity were rapidly deployed within nine days of the Nepal earthquake of 25th April 2015, to provide spatiotemporally detailed estimates of population displacements from call detail records based on movements of 12 million de-identified mobile phones users.

Results: Analysis shows the evolution of population mobility patterns after the earthquake and the patterns of return to affected areas, at a high level of detail. Particularly notable is the movement of an estimated 390,000 people above normal from the Kathmandu valley after the earthquake, with most people moving to surrounding areas and the highly-populated areas in the central southern area of Nepal.

Discussion: This analysis provides an unprecedented level of information about human movement after a natural disaster, provided within a very short timeframe after the earthquake occurred. The patterns revealed using this method are almost impossible to find through other methods, and are of great interest to humanitarian agencies.

Evacuation During Hurricane Sandy: Data from a Rapid Community Assessment

January 29, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: In anticipation of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 New York City officials issued mandatory evacuation orders for evacuation Zone A. However, only a small proportion of residents complied. Failure to comply with evacuation warnings can result in severe consequences including injury and death. To better ascertain why individuals failed to heed pre­-emptive evacuation warnings for Hurricane Sandy we assessed factors that may have affected evacuation among residents in neighborhoods severely affected by the storm.

Methods: Data from a mental health needs assessment survey conducted among adult residents in South Brooklyn, the Rockaways, and Staten Island from December 13-­18, 2012 was assessed. Several disasters related questions were evaluated, and prevalence estimates of evacuation and evacuation timing by potential factors that may influence evacuation were estimated. Measures of association were assessed using chi-­square and t-­test.

Results: Our sample consisted of 420 residents of which, only 49% evacuated at any time for Sandy. Evacuation was higher among those who witnessed trauma to others related to the World Trade Center attacks (66% vs. 40%, p=0.024). Those who reported extensive household damage after Sandy, had a higher rate of evacuation than those with minimal damage (83% vs. 30%, p<0.001). Among those who evacuated, evacuation before the storm was lower among residents living on higher floors (56% vs. 22%, p=0.022).

Discussion: Given that warnings to evacuate were issued before Sandy made landfall, evacuation among residents in South Brooklyn, the Rockaways and Staten Island, while higher than the overall Zone A evacuation rate, was less than optimal. Continued research on evacuation behaviors is needed, particularly on how timing affects evacuation. A better understanding may help to reduce barriers, and improve evacuation compliance.

Immediate Needs and Concerns among Pregnant Women During and after Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

January 25, 2016 · Research Article

Introduction: Pregnant and postpartum women are especially vulnerable to natural disasters. These women suffer from increased risk of physical and mental issues including pregnant related problems. Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda), which hit the Philippines affected a large number of people and caused devastating damages. During and after the typhoon, pregnant women were forced to live in particularly difficult circumstances. The purpose of this study was to determine concerns and problems regarding public health needs and coping mechanisms among pregnant women during and shortly after the typhoon.

Methods: This study employed a cross-sectional design utilizing focus group discussions (FGDs). Participants were 53 women (mean age: 26.6 years old; 42 had children) from four affected communities who were pregnant at the time of the typhoon. FGDs were conducted 4 months after the typhoon, from March 19 to 28, 2014, using semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed using the qualitative content analysis.

Result: Three themes were identified regarding problems and concerns during and after the typhoon: 1) having no ideas what is going to happen during the evacuation, 2) lacking essentials to survive, and 3) being unsure of how to deal with health concerns. Two themes were identified as means of solving issues: 1) finding food for survival and 2) avoiding diseases to save my family. As the pregnant women already had several typhoon experiences without any major problems, they underestimated the catastrophic nature of this typhoon. During the typhoon, the women could not ensure their safety and did not have a strong sense of crisis management. They suffered from hunger, food shortage, and poor sanitation. Moreover, though the women had fear and anxiety regarding their pregnancy, they had no way to resolve these concerns. Pregnant women and their families also suffered from common health problems for which they would usually seek medical services. Under such conditions, the pregnant woman cooperated with others for survival and used their knowledge of disease prevention.

Discussion: Pregnant women experienced difficulties with evacuation, a lack of minimum survival needs, and attending to their own health issues. Pregnant women were also concerned about needs and health issues of their families, particular, when they had small children. Collecting accurate information regarding the disaster and conducting self-sustainable preparation prior to the disaster among pregnant women will help them to protect their pregnancy status, thereby improving their families’ chance of survival during and after disasters.

Demographic Determinants of Disaster Preparedness Behaviors Amongst Tehran Inhabitants, Iran

December 11, 2015 · Research Article

Background: Tehran is vulnerable to natural hazards, especially earthquakes. Disaster preparedness behaviors (DPB) are measures that can mitigate the adverse consequences of disasters. Demographic factors affect DPB, however, the role of some of these factors is not still clear. By understanding these effects, disaster specialists could design interventions toward specific demographics. In the present study, we aimed to investigate demographic determinants of DPB.

Methods: This cross-sectional survey was conducted in August 2014. The target population included inhabitants of Tehran who were 18 years or older. A total of 1250 participants were selected randomly and interviewed using a standardized questionnaire.

Results: Results of our study showed that monthly income level, previous disaster experience, residential district and occupation are demographic factors that influence DPB significantly. However, disaster preparedness was not affected by gender, educational level, number of household members, home type, home ownership and being the head of household.

Conclusion: To promote DPB in Tehran, disaster specialists should focus on improving DPB in low-income and unemployed people, and individuals who live in high risk districts, especially in those who have not experienced disasters.

Key words: Disaster, Preparedness behavior, Demographic determinants.    

Criteria for Site Selection of Temporary Shelters after Earthquakes: a Delphi Panel

November 23, 2015 · Research Article

Introduction: After a devastating earthquake, the site selection for the sheltering of earthquake victims is an important task. In order to generate a list of appropriate criteria for deciding on temporary sheltering site selection, we systematically combined the experience of experts and the findings of published documents in this study.

Methods: Having explored published papers, we generated a list of criteria for the selection of the best location for temporary sheltering. In the next step, all criteria were presented to a group of experts in Iran and after a scientific discussion, the list was updated. In the last step, the final list of criteria was developed using the Delphi method in three rounds.

Results: Based on our previous systematic review, 27 criteria were presented for sheltering site selection. Expert interviews added 12 more items to them. The Delphi process approved 21 criteria of all proposed ones. These items then grouped into four categories: land suitability, socio-cultural considerations, service availability and disaster risk reduction.

Discussion: After an earthquake, our list of criteria may help the disaster team to select the best locations for temporary sheltering with minimum confusion. The consent of the earthquake victims and cost reduction of the operation would be the minimum benefits of using the appropriate criteria. These criteria also could be used by researchers to make objective and reproducible assessments of temporary sheltering site selection. Key words: Criteria, Earthquake, Model, Site selection, Temporary shelter,

Who Is Worst Off? Developing a Severity-scoring Model of Complex Emergency Affected Countries in Order to Ensure Needs Based Funding

November 3, 2015 · Research Article

Background: Disasters affect close to 400 million people each year. Complex Emergencies (CE) are a category of disaster that affects nearly half of the 400 million and often last for several years. To support the people affected by CE, humanitarian assistance is provided with the aim of saving lives and alleviating suffering. It is widely agreed that funding for this assistance should be needs-based. However, to date, there is no model or set of indicators that quantify and compare needs from one CE to another. In an effort to support needs-based and transparent funding of humanitarian assistance, the aim of this study is to develop a model that distinguishes between levels of severity among countries affected by CE.

Methods: In this study, severity serves as a predictor for level of need. The study focuses on two components of severity: vulnerability and exposure. In a literature and Internet search we identified indicators that characterize vulnerability and exposure to CE. Among the more than 100 indicators identified, a core set of six was selected in an expert ratings exercise. Selection was made based on indicator availability and their ability to characterize preexisting or underlying vulnerabilities (four indicators) or to quantify exposure to a CE (two indicators). CE from 50 countries were then scored using a 3-tiered score (Low-Moderate, High, Critical). 

Results: The developed model builds on the logic of the Utstein template. It scores severity based on the readily available value of four vulnerability and four exposure indicators. These are 1) GNI per capita, PPP, 2) Under-five mortality rate, per 1 000 live births, 3) Adult literacy rate, % of people ages 15 and above, 4) Underweight, % of population under 5 years, and 5) number of persons and proportion of population affected, and 6) number of uprooted persons and proportion of population uprooted.

Conclusion: The model can be used to derive support for transparent, needs-based funding of humanitarian assistance. Further research is needed to determine its validity, the robustness of indicators and to what extent levels of scoring relate to CE outcome.

An Analysis of the Relationship Between the Heat Index and Arrivals in the Emergency Department

October 29, 2015 · Research Article
Figure3-HeatIndex_3

Background: Heatwaves are one of the most deadly weather-related events in the United States and account for more deaths annually than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined. However, there are few statistically rigorous studies of the effect of heatwaves on emergency department (ED) arrivals. A better understanding of this relationship can help hospitals plan better and provide better care for patients during these types of events.

Methods: A retrospective review of all ED patient arrivals that occurred from April 15 through August 15 for the years 2008 through 2013 was performed. Daily patient arrival data were combined with weather data (temperature and humidity) to examine the potential relationships between the heat index and ED arrivals as well as the length of time patients spend in the ED using generalized additive models. In particular the effect the 2012 heat wave that swept across the United States, and which was hypothesized to increase arrivals was examined.

Results: While there was no relationship found between the heat index and arrivals on a single day, a non-linear relationship was found between the mean three-day heat index and the number of daily arrivals. As the mean three-day heat index initially increased, the number of arrivals significantly declined. However, as the heat index continued to increase, the number of arrivals increased. It was estimated that there was approximately a 2% increase in arrivals when the mean heat index for three days approached 100°F. This relationship was strongest for adults aged 18-64, as well as for patients arriving with lower acuity. Additionally, a positive relationship was noted between the mean three-day heat index and the length of stay (LOS) for patients in the ED, but no relationship was found for the time from which a patient was first seen to when a disposition decision was made. No significant relationship was found for the effect of the 2012 heat wave on ED arrivals, though it did have an effect on patient LOS.

Conclusion: A single hot day has only a limited effect on ED arrivals, but continued hot weather has a cumulative effect. When the heat index is high (~90°F) for a number of days in a row, this curtails peoples activities, but if the heat index is very hot (~100°F) this likely results in an exacerbation of underlying conditions as well as heat-related events that drives an increase in ED arrivals. Periods of high heat also affects the length of stay of patients either by complicating care or by making it more difficult to discharge patients.

2011 Joplin, Missouri Tornado Experience, Mental Health Reactions, and Service Utilization: Cross-Sectional Assessments at Approximately 6 Months and 2.5 Years Post-Event

October 26, 2015 · Research Article

Introduction. On May 22, 2011 the deadliest tornado in the United States since 1947 struck Joplin, Missouri killing 161 people, injuring approximately 1,150 individuals, and causing approximately $2.8 billion in economic losses.

Methods. This study examined the mental health effects of this event through a random digit dialing sample (N = 380) of Joplin adults at approximately 6 months post-disaster (Survey 1) and a purposive convenience sample (N = 438) of Joplin adults at approximately 2.5 years post-disaster (Survey 2). For both surveys we assessed tornado experience, posttraumatic stress, depression, mental health service utilization, and sociodemographics. For Survey 2 we also assessed social support and parent report of child strengths and difficulties.

Results. Probable PTSD relevance was 12.63% at Survey 1 and 26.74% at Survey 2, while current depression prevalence was 20.82% at Survey 1 and 13.33% at Survey 2. Less education and more tornado experience was generally related to greater likelihood of experiencing probable PTSD and current depression for both surveys. Men and younger participants were more likely to report current depression at Survey 1. Low levels of social support (assessed only at Survey 2) were related to more probable PTSD and current depression. For both surveys, we observed low rates of mental health service utilization, and these rates were also low for participants reporting probable PTSD and current depression. At Survey 2 we assessed parent report of child (ages 4 to 17) strengths and difficulties and found that child difficulties were more frequent for younger children (ages 4 to 10) than older children (ages 11 to 17), and that parents reporting probable PTSD reported a greater frequency of children with borderline or abnormal difficulties.

Discussion. Overall our results indicate that long-term (multi-year) community disaster mental health monitoring, assessment, referral, outreach, and services are needed following a major disaster like the 2011 Joplin tornado.

Identifying and Describing the Impact of Cyclone, Storm and Flood Related Disasters on Treatment Management, Care and Exacerbations of Non-communicable Diseases and the Implications for Public Health

September 28, 2015 · Research Article

Introduction: Over the last quarter of a century the frequency of natural disasters and the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD) across the globe have been increasing. For individuals susceptible to, or chronically experiencing, NCDs this has become a significant risk. Disasters jeopardize access to essential treatment, care, equipment, water and food, which can result in an exacerbation of existing conditions or even preventable death. Consequently, there is a need to expand the public health focus of disaster management to include NCDs. To provide a platform for this to occur, this article presents the results from a systematic review that identifies and describes the impact of cyclone, flood and storm related disasters on those susceptible to, or experiencing, NCDs. The NCDs researched were: cardiovascular diseases; cancers; chronic respiratory diseases; and diabetes.  

Methods: Four electronic publication databases were searched with a date limit of 31 December 2014. The data was analyzed through an aggregation of individual papers to create an overall data description. The data was then grouped by disease to describe the impact of a disaster on treatment management, exacerbation, and health care of people with NCDs. The PRISMA checklist was used to guide presentation of the research.

Results:  The review identified 48 relevant articles. All studies represented developed country data. Disasters interrupt treatment management and overall care for people with NCDs, which results in an increased risk of exacerbation of their illness or even death. The interruption may be caused by a range of factors, such as damaged transport routes, reduced health services, loss of power and evacuations. The health impact varied according to the NCD. For people with chronic respiratory diseases, a disaster increases the risk of acute exacerbation. Meanwhile, for people with cancer, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes there is an increased risk of their illness exacerbating, which can result in death.   

Conclusion:  Cyclone, flood and storm related disasters impact on treatment management and care for people with NCDs. Possible consequences include exacerbation of illness, complications or even death. There is now a need to expand traditional disaster approaches by public health to incorporate NCDs. This must be guided by the major NCDs identified by the World Health Organization and implemented in-line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: 2015-2030. This includes understanding all the factors that influence both direct and indirect (preventable) morbidity and mortality related to NCDs during and after disasters. Once achieved, disaster planners and public health professionals will be in a position to develop and implement effective mitigation strategies.

Hospital Disaster Preparedness Tools: a Systematic Review

September 14, 2015 · Research Article

Aim: Evaluating hospital disaster preparedness is one the best ways for hospital accreditation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of outcome measure that offer the level of measurement, reliability and validity that are known as the ‘ psychometric properties’ of the current hospital disaster preparedness tools.

Methods: In total, 140 studies were retrieved. Studies which had been published from 2000 to 2014 and had used hospital disaster preparedness tools were appraised by using the PRISMA guideline. The content quality and the quality of the psychometric properties of the retrieved tools were assessed by using the World Health Organization Criteria for Hospital Preparedness as well as the COSMIN criteria.

Findings: Only 33 studies met the inclusion criteria. In total, eleven hospital disaster preparedness tools had been used in these 33 studies. These tools mainly focused on evaluating structural and non-structural aspects of hospital preparedness and paid little attention, if any, to the key functional aspect.

Conclusion: Given the paramount importance of evaluating hospital disaster preparedness and the weaknesses of current preparedness evaluation tools, valid and reliable tools should be developed by using experts’ knowledge and experience through the processes of tool development and psychometric evaluation.

Keywords: Hospital preparedness, Measurement tool, Disaster, Systematic review

Analysis of Landslides Triggered by October 2005, Kashmir Earthquake

August 26, 2015 · Research Article
MKT= Main Karakoram Thrust, MMT= Main Mantle Thrust, MBT= Main Boundary Thrust, SRT= Salt Range Thrust

Introduction: The October 2005, Kashmir earthquake main event was triggered along the Balakot-Bagh Fault which runs from Bagh to Balakot, and caused more damages in and around these areas. Major landslides were activated during and after the earthquake inflicting large damages in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and casualties. These landslides were mainly attributed to the minimum threshold of the earthquake, geology of the area, climatologic and geomorphologic conditions, mudflows, widening of the roads without stability assessment, and heavy rainfall after the earthquake. These landslides were mainly rock and debris falls. Hattian Bala rock avalanche was largest landslide associated with the earthquake which completely destroyed a village and blocked the valley creating a lake.

Discussion: The present study shows that the fault rupture and fault geometry have direct influence on the distribution of landslides and that along the rupture zone a high frequency band of landslides was triggered. There was an increase in number of landslides due to 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks and that most of earthquakes have occurred along faults, rivers and roads. It is observed that the stability of landslide mass is greatly influenced by amplitude, frequency and duration of earthquake induced ground motion. Most of the slope failures along the roads resulted from the alteration of these slopes during widening of the roads, and seepages during the rainy season immediately after the earthquake.

Conclusion: Landslides occurred mostly along weakly cemented and indurated rocks, colluvial sand and cemented soils. It is also worth noting that fissures and ground crack which were induced by main and after shock are still present and they pose a major potential threat for future landslides in case of another earthquake activity or under extreme weather conditions.

Upstream Disaster Management to Support People Experiencing Homelessness

August 18, 2015 · Research Article

The unique context of day-to-day living for people who are chronically homeless or living with housing insecurity puts them at high risk during community disasters. The impacts of extreme events, such as flooding, storms, riots, and other sources of community disruption, underscore the importance of preparedness efforts and fostering community resilience. This study is part of larger initiative focused on enhancing resilience and preparedness among high risk populations. The purpose of this study was to explore critical issues and strategies to promote resilience and disaster preparedness among people who are homeless in Canada. A sample of interviews (n=21) from key informants across Canada was analyzed to explore existing programs and supports for homeless populations. The data was selected from a larger sample of (n=43) interviews focused on programs and supports for people who are at heightened risk for negative impacts during disasters. Qualitative content analysis was used to extract emergent themes and develop a model of multi-level collaboration to support disaster resilience among people who are homeless. The results indicate there is a need for more upstream continuity planning, collaboration and communication between the emergency management sector and community service organizations that support people who are homeless. Prioritization and investment in the social determinants of health and community supports is necessary to promote resilience among this high-risk population. The findings from this study highlight the importance of acknowledging community support organizations as assets in disaster preparedness. Day-to-day resilience is an ongoing theme for people who are chronically homeless or living with housing insecurity. Upstream investment to build adaptive capacity and collaborate with community organizations is an important strategy to enhance community resilience.

Application of Behavioral Theories to Disaster and Emergency Health Preparedness: A Systematic Review

July 1, 2015 · Research Article

Background: Preparedness for disasters and emergencies at individual, community and organizational levels could be more effective tools in mitigating (the growing incidence) of disaster risk and ameliorating their impacts. That is, to play more significant roles in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Preparedness efforts focus on changing human behaviors in ways that reduce people’s risk and increase their ability to cope with hazard consequences. While preparedness initiatives have used behavioral theories to facilitate DRR, many theories have been used and little is known about which behavioral theories are more commonly used, where they have been used, and why they have been preferred over alternative behavioral theories. Given that theories differ with respect to the variables used and the relationship between them, a systematic analysis is an essential first step to answering questions about the relative utility of theories and providing a more robust evidence base for preparedness components of DRR strategies. The goal of this systematic review was to search and summarize evidence by assessing the application of behavioral theories to disaster and emergency health preparedness across the world.

Methods: The protocol was prepared in which the study objectives, questions, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and sensitive search strategies were developed and pilot-tested at the beginning of the study. Using selected keywords, articles were searched mainly in PubMed, Scopus, Mosby’s Index (Nursing Index) and Safetylit databases. Articles were assessed based on their titles, abstracts, and their full texts. The data were extracted from selected articles and results were presented using qualitative and quantitative methods.

Results: In total, 2040 titles, 450 abstracts and 62 full texts of articles were assessed for eligibility criteria, whilst five articles were archived from other sources, and then finally, 33 articles were selected. The Health Belief Model (HBM), Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM), Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Social Cognitive Theories were most commonly applied to influenza (H1N1 and H5N1), floods, and earthquake hazards. Studies were predominantly conducted in USA (13 studies). In Asia, where the annual number of disasters and victims exceeds those in other continents, only three studies were identified. Overall, the main constructs of HBM (perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barriers), EPPM (higher threat and higher efficacy), TPB (attitude and subjective norm), and the majority of the constructs utilized in Social Cognitive Theories were associated with preparedness for diverse hazards. However, while all the theories described above describe the relationships between constituent variables, with the exception of research on Social Cognitive Theories, few studies of other theories and models used path analysis to identify the interdependence relationships between the constructs described in the respective theories/models. Similarly, few identified how other mediating  variables could influence disaster and emergency preparedness. 

Conclusions: The existing evidence on the application of behavioral theories and models to disaster and emergency preparedness is chiefly from developed countries. This raises issues regarding their utility in countries, particularly in Asisa and the Middle East, where cultural characteristics are very different to those prevailing in the Western countries in which theories have been developed and tested. The theories and models discussed here have been applied predominantly to disease outbreaks and natural hazards, and information on their utility as guides to preparedness for man-made hazards is lacking. Hence, future studies related to behavioral theories and models addressing preparedness need to target developing countries where disaster risk  and the consequent need for preparedness is high. A need for additional work on demonstrating the relationships of variables and constructs, including more clearly articulating roles for mediating effects was also identified in this analysis. 

Post Disaster Governance, Complexity and Network Theory

Evidence from Aceh, Indonesia After the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004

July 1, 2015 · Research Article

This research aims to understand the organizational network typology of large­-scale disaster intervention in developing countries and to understand the complexity of post-­disaster intervention, through the use of network theory based on empirical data from post-­tsunami reconstruction in Aceh, Indonesia, during 2005/­2007. The findings suggest that the ‘ degrees of separation’ (or network diameter) between any two organizations in the field is 5, thus reflecting ‘small­ world’ realities and therefore making no significant difference with the real human networks, as found in previous experiments. There are also significant loops in the network reflecting the fact that some actors tend to not cooperate, which challenges post­ disaster coordination. The findings show the landscape of humanitarian actors is not randomly distributed. Many actors were connected to each other through certain hubs, while hundreds of actors make ‘scattered’ single ‘principal-­client’ links. The paper concludes that by understanding the distribution of degree, centrality, ‘degrees of separation’ and visualization of the network, authorities can improve their understanding of the realities of coordination, from macro to micro scales.

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