Author Profile

Edbert B. Hsu

Affiliation: Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Recent Posts

Comparing Two Epidemiologic Surveillance Methods to Assess Underestimation of Human Stampedes in India

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Background: Two separate but complementary epidemiologic surveillance methods for human stampedes have emerged since the publication of the topic in 2009. The objective of this study is to estimate the degree of underreporting in India.

Method: The Ngai Search Method was compared to the Roy Search Method for human stampede events occurring in India between 2001 and 2010.

Results: A total of 40 stampedes were identified by both search methods. Using the Ngai method, 34 human stampedes were identified. Using a previously defined stampede scale: 2 events were class I, 21 events were class II, 8 events were class III, and 3 events were class IV. The median deaths were 5.5 per event and median injuries were 13.5 per event. Using the Roy method, 27 events were identified, including 9 events that were not identified by the Ngai method. After excluding events based on exclusion criteria, six additional events identified by the Roy’s method had a median of 4 deaths and 30 injuries. In multivariate analysis using the Ngai method, religious (6.52, 95%CI 1.73-24.66, p=0.006) and political (277.09, 95%CI 5.12-15,001.96, p=0.006) events had higher relative number of deaths.

Conclusion: Many causes accounting for the global increase in human stampede events can only be elucidated through systematic epidemiological investigation. Focusing on a country with a high recurrence of human stampedes, we compare two independent methods of data abstraction in an effort to improve the existing database and to identify pertinent risk factors. We concluded that our previous publication underestimated stampede events in India by approximately 18% and an international standardized database to systematically record occurrence of human stampedes is needed to facilitate understanding of the epidemiology of human stampedes.

State of Virtual Reality Based Disaster Preparedness and Response Training

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The advent of technologically-based approaches to disaster response training through Virtual Reality (VR) environments appears promising in its ability to bridge the gaps of other commonly established training formats. Specifically, the immersive and participatory nature of VR training offers a unique realistic quality that is not generally present in classroom-based or web-based training, yet retains considerable cost advantages over large-scale real-life exercises and other modalities and is gaining increasing acceptance. Currently, numerous government departments and agencies including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as academic institutions are exploring the unique advantages of VR-based training for disaster preparedness and response. Growing implementation of VR-based training for disaster preparedness and response, conducted either independently or combined with other training formats, is anticipated. This paper reviews several applications of VR-based training in the United States, and reveals advantages as well as potential drawbacks and challenges associated with the implementation of such training platform.