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Monaghan)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 118.378 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 123.799 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cory W. Morin)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 186.091 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 191.512 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Daniel F. Steinhoff)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 271.716 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.137 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Olga Wilhelmi)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 337.265 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 342.686 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mary Hayden)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.660 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 406.081 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Dale A. Quattrochi)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 485.738 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 491.159 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Michael Reiskind)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 564.840 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Alun L. Lloyd)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 82.615 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 88.036 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kirk Smith)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 132.457 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 137.878 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Chris A. Schmidt)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 210.476 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 215.897 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Paige E. Scalf)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.137 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 282.558 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kacey Ernst)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 639.438 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Monaghan AJ, Morin CW, Steinhoff DF, Wilhelmi O, Hayden M, Quattrochi DA, Reiskind M, Lloyd AL, Smith K, Schmidt CA, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 627.533 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Scalf PE, Ernst K. On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 615.628 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Contiguous United States. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2016 Mar 16 . Edition 1. doi: )] TJ ET BT 26.250 603.723 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(10.1371/currents.outbreaks.50dfc7f46798675fc63e7d7da563da76.)] TJ ET q 15.000 23.815 577.500 577.527 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 574.621 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Abstract)] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Introduction: An ongoing Zika virus pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean has raised concerns that travel-related )] TJ ET BT 26.250 542.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(introduction of Zika virus could initiate local transmission in the United States \(U.S.\) by its primary vector, the mosquito Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 530.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(aegypti.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 511.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Methods: We employed meteorologically driven models for 2006-2015 to simulate the potential seasonal abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 26.250 499.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Aedes aegypti for fifty cities within or near the margins of its known U.S. range. Mosquito abundance results were analyzed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 487.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(alongside travel and socioeconomic factors that are proxies of viral introduction and vulnerability to human-vector contact. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 468.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Results: Meteorological conditions are largely unsuitable for Aedes aegypti over the U.S. during winter months \(December-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 456.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(March\), except in southern Florida and south Texas where comparatively warm conditions can sustain low-to-moderate )] TJ ET BT 26.250 444.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential mosquito abundance. Meteorological conditions are suitable for Aedes aegypti across all fifty cities during peak )] TJ ET BT 26.250 432.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(summer months \(July-September\), though the mosquito has not been documented in all cities. Simulations indicate the highest )] TJ ET BT 26.250 420.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito abundance occurs in the Southeast and south Texas where locally acquired cases of Aedes-transmitted viruses have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 408.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(been reported previously. Cities in southern Florida and south Texas are at the nexus of high seasonal suitability for Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 396.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(aegypti and strong potential for travel-related virus introduction. Higher poverty rates in cities along the U.S.-Mexico border may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 384.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(correlate with factors that increase human exposure to Aedes aegypti. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 365.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Discussion: Our results can inform baseline risk for local Zika virus transmission in the U.S. and the optimal timing of vector )] TJ ET BT 26.250 353.595 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(control activities, and underscore the need for enhanced surveillance for Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-transmitted viruses.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 316.993 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Funding Statement)] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health \(R01 AI091843/AI/NIAID; AI044793/AI/NIAID; R01 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(AI091980/AI/NIAID; P01 AI098670/AI/NIAID\) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration via an Early Career )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Investigator Award \(NNX14AI89G\) and a NASA Postdoctoral Program Fellowship. Funding was also provided by the NASA )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Marshall Space Flight Center Science Innovation Fund and NASA Center Innovation Fund projects. The National Science )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Foundation sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The funders had no role in study design, data collection )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 208.412 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Introduction)] TJ ET BT 26.250 188.458 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Zika virus \(ZIKAV\), a flavivirus, was first isolated from a primate in 1947 in the Zika forest of Uganda and in 1948 from )] TJ ET BT 535.610 188.458 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 176.553 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(\(Ae.\) africanus)] TJ ET BT 89.644 176.553 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitos in the same location)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 226.203 178.061 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 231.022 176.553 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Serological evidence of ZIKAV transmission in humans has been reported )] TJ ET BT 26.250 164.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(since 1951, but until recently, transmission was confined to ecological niches in the equatorial regions of Africa and Asia)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.234 166.156 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 548.053 164.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 152.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2007, an outbreak of ZIKAV in Yap State, Federated States of Micronesia, was the first documented epidemic outside Africa or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Asia)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 45.214 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 50.032 144.727 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 52.442 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.260 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Over 28,000 cases were reported in 2013-2014 in French Polynesia, and nearby island nations followed)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.314 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.132 144.727 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 517.542 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(6)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 522.360 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Introduced )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(into Brazil in 2015, ZIKAV has spread explosively across Latin America and the Caribbean, and is now pandemic, with over 20 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 117.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(countries reporting autochthonous transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 231.088 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 235.906 120.918 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 238.316 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 243.134 120.918 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 245.544 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 250.362 117.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This follows the introduction and subsequent pandemic of chikungunya )] TJ ET BT 26.250 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(virus \(CHIKV\) in the Western Hemisphere in late 2013)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 259.782 106.632 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 269.419 109.013 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 271.829 106.632 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 281.466 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 286.887 105.125 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 314.528 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes transmit ZIKAV and CHIKV, as well as dengue )] TJ ET BT 26.250 93.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(DENV\) and yellow fever \(YFV\) viruses. Over the past several decades the range of )] TJ ET BT 389.847 93.220 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 417.488 93.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes has expanded across )] TJ ET BT 26.250 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the Americas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 83.141 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 92.779 85.204 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 95.188 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 104.825 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Although )] TJ ET BT 151.440 81.315 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 212.680 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is thought to be a competent vector of ZIKAV)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 409.415 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 419.053 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 424.474 81.315 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 473.253 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( has been implicated as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 69.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the primary transmitter of the virus in human populations in the ongoing outbreak in the Americas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 444.057 70.918 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(15)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 453.694 69.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 50.006 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ZIKAV infections are commonly characterized by fever, maculopapular rash, arthralgia or conjunctivitis. Clinical illness is usually )] TJ ET BT 26.250 38.101 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mild, occurs in approximately 20% of people infected with ZIKAV, and symptoms typically last for a week)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.544 39.608 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 481.363 38.101 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. However, in mid-)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 684.354 577.500 53.646 re W n 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 718.042 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus )] TJ ET BT 15.000 693.094 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States)] TJ ET Q 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [(March 16, 2016)] TJ ET BT 82.431 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [()] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 87.306 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [(Research Article)] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Andrew J. Monaghan)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 118.378 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 123.799 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cory W. Morin)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 186.091 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 191.512 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Daniel F. Steinhoff)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 271.716 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.137 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Olga Wilhelmi)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 337.265 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 342.686 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mary Hayden)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.660 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 406.081 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Dale A. Quattrochi)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 485.738 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 491.159 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Michael Reiskind)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 564.840 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Alun L. Lloyd)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 82.615 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 88.036 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kirk Smith)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 132.457 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 137.878 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Chris A. Schmidt)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 210.476 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 215.897 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Paige E. Scalf)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.137 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 282.558 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kacey Ernst)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 639.438 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Monaghan AJ, Morin CW, Steinhoff DF, Wilhelmi O, Hayden M, Quattrochi DA, Reiskind M, Lloyd AL, Smith K, Schmidt CA, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 627.533 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Scalf PE, Ernst K. On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 615.628 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Contiguous United States. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2016 Mar 16 . Edition 1. doi: )] TJ ET BT 26.250 603.723 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(10.1371/currents.outbreaks.50dfc7f46798675fc63e7d7da563da76.)] TJ ET q 15.000 23.815 577.500 577.527 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 574.621 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Abstract)] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Introduction: An ongoing Zika virus pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean has raised concerns that travel-related )] TJ ET BT 26.250 542.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(introduction of Zika virus could initiate local transmission in the United States \(U.S.\) by its primary vector, the mosquito Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 530.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(aegypti.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 511.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Methods: We employed meteorologically driven models for 2006-2015 to simulate the potential seasonal abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 26.250 499.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Aedes aegypti for fifty cities within or near the margins of its known U.S. range. Mosquito abundance results were analyzed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 487.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(alongside travel and socioeconomic factors that are proxies of viral introduction and vulnerability to human-vector contact. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 468.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Results: Meteorological conditions are largely unsuitable for Aedes aegypti over the U.S. during winter months \(December-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 456.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(March\), except in southern Florida and south Texas where comparatively warm conditions can sustain low-to-moderate )] TJ ET BT 26.250 444.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential mosquito abundance. Meteorological conditions are suitable for Aedes aegypti across all fifty cities during peak )] TJ ET BT 26.250 432.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(summer months \(July-September\), though the mosquito has not been documented in all cities. Simulations indicate the highest )] TJ ET BT 26.250 420.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito abundance occurs in the Southeast and south Texas where locally acquired cases of Aedes-transmitted viruses have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 408.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(been reported previously. Cities in southern Florida and south Texas are at the nexus of high seasonal suitability for Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 396.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(aegypti and strong potential for travel-related virus introduction. Higher poverty rates in cities along the U.S.-Mexico border may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 384.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(correlate with factors that increase human exposure to Aedes aegypti. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 365.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Discussion: Our results can inform baseline risk for local Zika virus transmission in the U.S. and the optimal timing of vector )] TJ ET BT 26.250 353.595 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(control activities, and underscore the need for enhanced surveillance for Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-transmitted viruses.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 316.993 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Funding Statement)] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health \(R01 AI091843/AI/NIAID; AI044793/AI/NIAID; R01 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(AI091980/AI/NIAID; P01 AI098670/AI/NIAID\) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration via an Early Career )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Investigator Award \(NNX14AI89G\) and a NASA Postdoctoral Program Fellowship. Funding was also provided by the NASA )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Marshall Space Flight Center Science Innovation Fund and NASA Center Innovation Fund projects. The National Science )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Foundation sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The funders had no role in study design, data collection )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 208.412 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Introduction)] TJ ET BT 26.250 188.458 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Zika virus \(ZIKAV\), a flavivirus, was first isolated from a primate in 1947 in the Zika forest of Uganda and in 1948 from )] TJ ET BT 535.610 188.458 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 176.553 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(\(Ae.\) africanus)] TJ ET BT 89.644 176.553 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitos in the same location)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 226.203 178.061 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 231.022 176.553 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Serological evidence of ZIKAV transmission in humans has been reported )] TJ ET BT 26.250 164.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(since 1951, but until recently, transmission was confined to ecological niches in the equatorial regions of Africa and Asia)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.234 166.156 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 548.053 164.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 152.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2007, an outbreak of ZIKAV in Yap State, Federated States of Micronesia, was the first documented epidemic outside Africa or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Asia)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 45.214 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 50.032 144.727 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 52.442 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.260 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Over 28,000 cases were reported in 2013-2014 in French Polynesia, and nearby island nations followed)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.314 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.132 144.727 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 517.542 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(6)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 522.360 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Introduced )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(into Brazil in 2015, ZIKAV has spread explosively across Latin America and the Caribbean, and is now pandemic, with over 20 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 117.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(countries reporting autochthonous transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 231.088 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 235.906 120.918 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 238.316 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 243.134 120.918 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 245.544 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 250.362 117.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This follows the introduction and subsequent pandemic of chikungunya )] TJ ET BT 26.250 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(virus \(CHIKV\) in the Western Hemisphere in late 2013)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 259.782 106.632 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 269.419 109.013 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 271.829 106.632 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 281.466 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 286.887 105.125 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 314.528 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes transmit ZIKAV and CHIKV, as well as dengue )] TJ ET BT 26.250 93.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(DENV\) and yellow fever \(YFV\) viruses. Over the past several decades the range of )] TJ ET BT 389.847 93.220 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 417.488 93.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes has expanded across )] TJ ET BT 26.250 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the Americas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 83.141 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 92.779 85.204 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 95.188 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 104.825 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Although )] TJ ET BT 151.440 81.315 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 212.680 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is thought to be a competent vector of ZIKAV)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 409.415 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 419.053 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 424.474 81.315 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 473.253 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( has been implicated as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 69.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the primary transmitter of the virus in human populations in the ongoing outbreak in the Americas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 444.057 70.918 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(15)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 453.694 69.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 50.006 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ZIKAV infections are commonly characterized by fever, maculopapular rash, arthralgia or conjunctivitis. Clinical illness is usually )] TJ ET BT 26.250 38.101 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mild, occurs in approximately 20% of people infected with ZIKAV, and symptoms typically last for a week)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.544 39.608 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 481.363 38.101 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. However, in mid-)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 684.354 577.500 53.646 re W n 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 718.042 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus )] TJ ET BT 15.000 693.094 Td /F2 21.0 Tf [(Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States)] TJ ET Q 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 15.000 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [(March 16, 2016)] TJ ET BT 82.431 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [()] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 87.306 675.088 Td /F3 9.8 Tf [(Research Article)] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Andrew J. Monaghan)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 118.378 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 123.799 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cory W. Morin)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 186.091 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 191.512 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Daniel F. Steinhoff)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 271.716 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.137 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Olga Wilhelmi)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 337.265 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 342.686 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mary Hayden)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 400.660 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 406.081 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Dale A. Quattrochi)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 485.738 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 491.159 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Michael Reiskind)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 564.840 663.247 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Alun L. Lloyd)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 82.615 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 88.036 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kirk Smith)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 132.457 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 137.878 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Chris A. Schmidt)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 210.476 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 215.897 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Paige E. Scalf)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.137 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 282.558 651.342 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Kacey Ernst)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 639.438 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Monaghan AJ, Morin CW, Steinhoff DF, Wilhelmi O, Hayden M, Quattrochi DA, Reiskind M, Lloyd AL, Smith K, Schmidt CA, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 627.533 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Scalf PE, Ernst K. On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 615.628 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Contiguous United States. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2016 Mar 16 . Edition 1. doi: )] TJ ET BT 26.250 603.723 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(10.1371/currents.outbreaks.50dfc7f46798675fc63e7d7da563da76.)] TJ ET q 15.000 23.815 577.500 577.527 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 574.621 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Abstract)] TJ ET BT 26.250 554.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Introduction: An ongoing Zika virus pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean has raised concerns that travel-related )] TJ ET BT 26.250 542.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(introduction of Zika virus could initiate local transmission in the United States \(U.S.\) by its primary vector, the mosquito Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 530.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(aegypti.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 511.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Methods: We employed meteorologically driven models for 2006-2015 to simulate the potential seasonal abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 26.250 499.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Aedes aegypti for fifty cities within or near the margins of its known U.S. range. Mosquito abundance results were analyzed )] TJ ET BT 26.250 487.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(alongside travel and socioeconomic factors that are proxies of viral introduction and vulnerability to human-vector contact. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 468.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Results: Meteorological conditions are largely unsuitable for Aedes aegypti over the U.S. during winter months \(December-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 456.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(March\), except in southern Florida and south Texas where comparatively warm conditions can sustain low-to-moderate )] TJ ET BT 26.250 444.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential mosquito abundance. Meteorological conditions are suitable for Aedes aegypti across all fifty cities during peak )] TJ ET BT 26.250 432.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(summer months \(July-September\), though the mosquito has not been documented in all cities. Simulations indicate the highest )] TJ ET BT 26.250 420.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito abundance occurs in the Southeast and south Texas where locally acquired cases of Aedes-transmitted viruses have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 408.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(been reported previously. Cities in southern Florida and south Texas are at the nexus of high seasonal suitability for Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 396.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(aegypti and strong potential for travel-related virus introduction. Higher poverty rates in cities along the U.S.-Mexico border may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 384.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(correlate with factors that increase human exposure to Aedes aegypti. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 365.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Discussion: Our results can inform baseline risk for local Zika virus transmission in the U.S. and the optimal timing of vector )] TJ ET BT 26.250 353.595 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(control activities, and underscore the need for enhanced surveillance for Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-transmitted viruses.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 316.993 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Funding Statement)] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health \(R01 AI091843/AI/NIAID; AI044793/AI/NIAID; R01 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.134 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(AI091980/AI/NIAID; P01 AI098670/AI/NIAID\) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration via an Early Career )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.229 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Investigator Award \(NNX14AI89G\) and a NASA Postdoctoral Program Fellowship. Funding was also provided by the NASA )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Marshall Space Flight Center Science Innovation Fund and NASA Center Innovation Fund projects. The National Science )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.420 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Foundation sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The funders had no role in study design, data collection )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.515 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 208.412 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Introduction)] TJ ET BT 26.250 188.458 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Zika virus \(ZIKAV\), a flavivirus, was first isolated from a primate in 1947 in the Zika forest of Uganda and in 1948 from )] TJ ET BT 535.610 188.458 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 176.553 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(\(Ae.\) africanus)] TJ ET BT 89.644 176.553 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitos in the same location)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 226.203 178.061 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(1)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 231.022 176.553 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Serological evidence of ZIKAV transmission in humans has been reported )] TJ ET BT 26.250 164.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(since 1951, but until recently, transmission was confined to ecological niches in the equatorial regions of Africa and Asia)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.234 166.156 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 548.053 164.649 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 152.744 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(2007, an outbreak of ZIKAV in Yap State, Federated States of Micronesia, was the first documented epidemic outside Africa or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Asia)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 45.214 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 50.032 144.727 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 52.442 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(4)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.260 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Over 28,000 cases were reported in 2013-2014 in French Polynesia, and nearby island nations followed)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.314 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(5)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.132 144.727 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 517.542 142.346 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(6)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 522.360 140.839 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Introduced )] TJ ET BT 26.250 128.934 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(into Brazil in 2015, ZIKAV has spread explosively across Latin America and the Caribbean, and is now pandemic, with over 20 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 117.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(countries reporting autochthonous transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 231.088 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(7)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 235.906 120.918 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 238.316 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 243.134 120.918 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 245.544 118.537 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(9)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 250.362 117.030 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This follows the introduction and subsequent pandemic of chikungunya )] TJ ET BT 26.250 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(virus \(CHIKV\) in the Western Hemisphere in late 2013)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 259.782 106.632 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(10)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 269.419 109.013 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 271.829 106.632 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(11)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 281.466 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 286.887 105.125 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 314.528 105.125 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes transmit ZIKAV and CHIKV, as well as dengue )] TJ ET BT 26.250 93.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(DENV\) and yellow fever \(YFV\) viruses. Over the past several decades the range of )] TJ ET BT 389.847 93.220 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 417.488 93.220 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes has expanded across )] TJ ET BT 26.250 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the Americas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 83.141 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(12)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 92.779 85.204 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 95.188 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(13)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 104.825 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Although )] TJ ET BT 151.440 81.315 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 212.680 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is thought to be a competent vector of ZIKAV)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 409.415 82.823 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 419.053 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 424.474 81.315 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 473.253 81.315 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( has been implicated as )] TJ ET BT 26.250 69.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the primary transmitter of the virus in human populations in the ongoing outbreak in the Americas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 444.057 70.918 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(15)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 453.694 69.411 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 50.006 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ZIKAV infections are commonly characterized by fever, maculopapular rash, arthralgia or conjunctivitis. Clinical illness is usually )] TJ ET BT 26.250 38.101 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mild, occurs in approximately 20% of people infected with ZIKAV, and symptoms typically last for a week)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.544 39.608 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(8)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 481.363 38.101 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. However, in mid-)] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(1)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 8 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F1 /BaseFont /Helvetica /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 9 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F2 /BaseFont /Times-Bold /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 10 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F3 /BaseFont /Times-Italic /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 11 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F4 /BaseFont /Helvetica-Bold /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 12 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Name /F5 /BaseFont /Helvetica-Oblique /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding >> endobj 13 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 500 /Height 52 /Filter /FlateDecode /DecodeParms << /Predictor 15 /Colors 1 /Columns 500 /BitsPerComponent 8>> /ColorSpace /DeviceGray /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 144>> stream x1 0 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stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 45.077 577.500 731.923 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(November 2015, the Pan American Health Organization issued an epidemiological alert)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 403.409 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 413.047 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( based on an unusual increase in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(number of children born with microcephaly in northeast Brazil that coincided with the arrival of ZIKAV)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.291 757.079 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.928 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Although no causal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(links have been established, in the aftermath of a previous outbreak of ZIKAV in French Polynesia during 2014-2015, a notable )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(increase in central nervous system malformations in newborns and infants was also registered)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 432.649 733.269 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 442.287 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, in both Brazil and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(French Polynesia, following recent illnesses with ZIKAV-like symptoms, authorities detected patients with neurological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(syndromes such as Guillain-Barr)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 172.539 709.460 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 182.176 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(As of 22 February 2016, all cases of ZIKAV reported in the contiguous United States were associated with travel or sexual )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 80.967 678.150 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(72)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 90.604 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Given the potential link between exposure to ZIKAV during pregnancy and microcephaly, the U.S. Centers for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Disease Control and Prevention \(CDC\) has recommended pregnant women consider postponing non-essential travel and urges )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(all travelers to take enhanced precautions in areas where ZIKAV is circulating)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 360.597 654.341 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 370.234 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The risk for local transmission of ZIKAV has )] TJ ET BT 26.250 640.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(been discussed widely in the media and scientific and public health communities. Sporadic outbreaks of DENV and CHIKV have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(already occurred in the United States and there is concern that local outbreaks of ZIKAV could follow)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.330 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.967 632.912 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 472.376 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 482.014 632.912 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 484.423 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 494.060 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Prior DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 617.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(outbreak investigations in the U.S.-Mexico border region suggest improved socioeconomic conditions in the United States may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(minimize vector-human contact and reduce the risk of )] TJ ET BT 260.338 605.214 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 287.979 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted arboviruses)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 392.548 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 402.185 609.103 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 404.594 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 414.232 609.103 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.641 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 426.278 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Aside from sexual transmission )] TJ ET BT 26.250 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that has been reported in comparatively few instances)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 259.275 594.817 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 268.912 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, for local transmission to occur ZIKAV would have to be introduced by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(infected travelers or infected mosquitoes and become sustained in local )] TJ ET BT 337.850 581.405 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 365.492 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquito populations. While )] TJ ET BT 492.836 581.405 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 541.616 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 569.500 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 87.490 569.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( are established across much of the southern United States \(Fig. 1\), mosquito populations in many areas are only )] TJ ET BT 26.250 557.595 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present seasonally. This seasonality varies according to local meteorological conditions, and thus can provide one measure of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 545.691 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential for ZIKAV transmission \(i.e., local transmission may not be sustained if competent vector mosquitoes are not present\). )] TJ ET BT 26.250 533.786 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In addition, assuming transmission dynamics are similar to DENV, risk of ZIKAV introduction can be modulated by population )] TJ ET BT 26.250 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(travel patterns, human exposure to )] TJ ET BT 179.618 521.881 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 207.259 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes, and vector control response to travel-associated cases)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.968 523.388 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.605 525.769 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 513.014 523.388 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(27)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 522.652 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. To better )] TJ ET BT 26.250 509.976 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(understand the risk for local ZIKAV transmission in the United States, we simulated the potential abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 528.619 509.976 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquitoes across fifty cities using meteorologically-driven life cycle models, and identified proxies of travel-related introduction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and of human exposure to vectors to provide context for the model results.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 52.577 555.000 423.709 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 476.286 m 581.250 476.286 l 581.250 475.536 l 26.250 475.536 l f 26.250 52.577 m 581.250 52.577 l 581.250 53.327 l 26.250 53.327 l f q 450.000 0 0 348.000 35.250 118.536 cm /I3 Do Q q 35.250 63.827 537.000 48.709 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 101.547 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 1.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 101.547 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( U.S. map showing 1\) )] TJ ET BT 159.338 101.547 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 208.117 101.547 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance for Jan/July \(colored circles\), 2\) approximate maximum known )] TJ ET BT 35.250 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(range of )] TJ ET BT 73.733 87.811 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 122.512 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(shaded regions\) and )] TJ ET BT 220.061 87.811 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 281.301 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(gray dashed lines\), and 3\) monthly average number arrivals to )] TJ ET BT 35.250 74.074 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the U.S. by air and land from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory. Additional details can be found in the text.)] TJ ET Q Q q 15.000 45.077 577.500 731.923 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(November 2015, the Pan American Health Organization issued an epidemiological alert)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 403.409 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 413.047 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( based on an unusual increase in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(number of children born with microcephaly in northeast Brazil that coincided with the arrival of ZIKAV)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.291 757.079 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.928 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Although no causal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(links have been established, in the aftermath of a previous outbreak of ZIKAV in French Polynesia during 2014-2015, a notable )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(increase in central nervous system malformations in newborns and infants was also registered)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 432.649 733.269 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 442.287 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, in both Brazil and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(French Polynesia, following recent illnesses with ZIKAV-like symptoms, authorities detected patients with neurological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(syndromes such as Guillain-Barr)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 172.539 709.460 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 182.176 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(As of 22 February 2016, all cases of ZIKAV reported in the contiguous United States were associated with travel or sexual )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 80.967 678.150 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(72)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 90.604 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Given the potential link between exposure to ZIKAV during pregnancy and microcephaly, the U.S. Centers for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Disease Control and Prevention \(CDC\) has recommended pregnant women consider postponing non-essential travel and urges )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(all travelers to take enhanced precautions in areas where ZIKAV is circulating)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 360.597 654.341 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 370.234 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The risk for local transmission of ZIKAV has )] TJ ET BT 26.250 640.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(been discussed widely in the media and scientific and public health communities. Sporadic outbreaks of DENV and CHIKV have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(already occurred in the United States and there is concern that local outbreaks of ZIKAV could follow)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.330 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.967 632.912 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 472.376 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 482.014 632.912 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 484.423 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 494.060 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Prior DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 617.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(outbreak investigations in the U.S.-Mexico border region suggest improved socioeconomic conditions in the United States may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(minimize vector-human contact and reduce the risk of )] TJ ET BT 260.338 605.214 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 287.979 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted arboviruses)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 392.548 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 402.185 609.103 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 404.594 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 414.232 609.103 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.641 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 426.278 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Aside from sexual transmission )] TJ ET BT 26.250 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that has been reported in comparatively few instances)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 259.275 594.817 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 268.912 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, for local transmission to occur ZIKAV would have to be introduced by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(infected travelers or infected mosquitoes and become sustained in local )] TJ ET BT 337.850 581.405 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 365.492 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquito populations. While )] TJ ET BT 492.836 581.405 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 541.616 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 569.500 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 87.490 569.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( are established across much of the southern United States \(Fig. 1\), mosquito populations in many areas are only )] TJ ET BT 26.250 557.595 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present seasonally. This seasonality varies according to local meteorological conditions, and thus can provide one measure of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 545.691 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential for ZIKAV transmission \(i.e., local transmission may not be sustained if competent vector mosquitoes are not present\). )] TJ ET BT 26.250 533.786 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In addition, assuming transmission dynamics are similar to DENV, risk of ZIKAV introduction can be modulated by population )] TJ ET BT 26.250 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(travel patterns, human exposure to )] TJ ET BT 179.618 521.881 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 207.259 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes, and vector control response to travel-associated cases)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.968 523.388 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.605 525.769 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 513.014 523.388 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(27)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 522.652 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. To better )] TJ ET BT 26.250 509.976 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(understand the risk for local ZIKAV transmission in the United States, we simulated the potential abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 528.619 509.976 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquitoes across fifty cities using meteorologically-driven life cycle models, and identified proxies of travel-related introduction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and of human exposure to vectors to provide context for the model results.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 52.577 555.000 423.709 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 476.286 m 581.250 476.286 l 581.250 475.536 l 26.250 475.536 l f 26.250 52.577 m 581.250 52.577 l 581.250 53.327 l 26.250 53.327 l f q 450.000 0 0 348.000 35.250 118.536 cm /I3 Do Q q 35.250 63.827 537.000 48.709 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 101.547 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 1.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 101.547 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( U.S. map showing 1\) )] TJ ET BT 159.338 101.547 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 208.117 101.547 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance for Jan/July \(colored circles\), 2\) approximate maximum known )] TJ ET BT 35.250 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(range of )] TJ ET BT 73.733 87.811 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 122.512 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(shaded regions\) and )] TJ ET BT 220.061 87.811 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 281.301 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(gray dashed lines\), and 3\) monthly average number arrivals to )] TJ ET BT 35.250 74.074 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the U.S. by air and land from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory. Additional details can be found in the text.)] TJ ET Q Q q 15.000 45.077 577.500 731.923 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(November 2015, the Pan American Health Organization issued an epidemiological alert)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 403.409 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(16)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 413.047 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( based on an unusual increase in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(number of children born with microcephaly in northeast Brazil that coincided with the arrival of ZIKAV)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.291 757.079 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(17)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.928 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Although no causal )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(links have been established, in the aftermath of a previous outbreak of ZIKAV in French Polynesia during 2014-2015, a notable )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(increase in central nervous system malformations in newborns and infants was also registered)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 432.649 733.269 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 442.287 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, in both Brazil and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(French Polynesia, following recent illnesses with ZIKAV-like symptoms, authorities detected patients with neurological )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(syndromes such as Guillain-Barr)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 172.539 709.460 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(18)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 182.176 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(As of 22 February 2016, all cases of ZIKAV reported in the contiguous United States were associated with travel or sexual )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 80.967 678.150 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(72)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 90.604 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Given the potential link between exposure to ZIKAV during pregnancy and microcephaly, the U.S. Centers for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Disease Control and Prevention \(CDC\) has recommended pregnant women consider postponing non-essential travel and urges )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(all travelers to take enhanced precautions in areas where ZIKAV is circulating)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 360.597 654.341 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(19)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 370.234 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The risk for local transmission of ZIKAV has )] TJ ET BT 26.250 640.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(been discussed widely in the media and scientific and public health communities. Sporadic outbreaks of DENV and CHIKV have )] TJ ET BT 26.250 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(already occurred in the United States and there is concern that local outbreaks of ZIKAV could follow)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 460.330 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.967 632.912 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 472.376 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(21)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 482.014 632.912 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 484.423 630.531 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(22)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 494.060 629.024 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Prior DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 617.119 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(outbreak investigations in the U.S.-Mexico border region suggest improved socioeconomic conditions in the United States may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(minimize vector-human contact and reduce the risk of )] TJ ET BT 260.338 605.214 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 287.979 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted arboviruses)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 392.548 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(20)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 402.185 609.103 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 404.594 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 414.232 609.103 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.641 606.722 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(24)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 426.278 605.214 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Aside from sexual transmission )] TJ ET BT 26.250 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(that has been reported in comparatively few instances)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 259.275 594.817 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(25)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 268.912 593.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, for local transmission to occur ZIKAV would have to be introduced by )] TJ ET BT 26.250 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(infected travelers or infected mosquitoes and become sustained in local )] TJ ET BT 337.850 581.405 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 365.492 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquito populations. While )] TJ ET BT 492.836 581.405 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 541.616 581.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 569.500 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 87.490 569.500 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( are established across much of the southern United States \(Fig. 1\), mosquito populations in many areas are only )] TJ ET BT 26.250 557.595 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present seasonally. This seasonality varies according to local meteorological conditions, and thus can provide one measure of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 545.691 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential for ZIKAV transmission \(i.e., local transmission may not be sustained if competent vector mosquitoes are not present\). )] TJ ET BT 26.250 533.786 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(In addition, assuming transmission dynamics are similar to DENV, risk of ZIKAV introduction can be modulated by population )] TJ ET BT 26.250 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(travel patterns, human exposure to )] TJ ET BT 179.618 521.881 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 207.259 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes, and vector control response to travel-associated cases)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.968 523.388 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(26)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.605 525.769 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 513.014 523.388 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(27)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 522.652 521.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. To better )] TJ ET BT 26.250 509.976 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(understand the risk for local ZIKAV transmission in the United States, we simulated the potential abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 528.619 509.976 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquitoes across fifty cities using meteorologically-driven life cycle models, and identified proxies of travel-related introduction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and of human exposure to vectors to provide context for the model results.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 52.577 555.000 423.709 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 476.286 m 581.250 476.286 l 581.250 475.536 l 26.250 475.536 l f 26.250 52.577 m 581.250 52.577 l 581.250 53.327 l 26.250 53.327 l f q 450.000 0 0 348.000 35.250 118.536 cm /I3 Do Q q 35.250 63.827 537.000 48.709 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 101.547 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 1.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 101.547 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( U.S. map showing 1\) )] TJ ET BT 159.338 101.547 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 208.117 101.547 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance for Jan/July \(colored circles\), 2\) approximate maximum known )] TJ ET BT 35.250 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(range of )] TJ ET BT 73.733 87.811 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 122.512 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(shaded regions\) and )] TJ ET BT 220.061 87.811 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 281.301 87.811 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(gray dashed lines\), and 3\) monthly average number arrivals to )] TJ ET BT 35.250 74.074 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the U.S. by air and land from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory. 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37.669 577.500 739.331 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 750.278 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Data and Methods)] TJ ET BT 26.250 730.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cities)] TJ ET BT 26.250 710.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We chose fifty U.S. cities within and near the known range of )] TJ ET BT 291.245 710.919 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 340.024 710.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(Fig. 1, Table 1\). These cities were selected because )] TJ ET BT 26.250 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(they may be meteorologically suitable for )] TJ ET BT 205.611 699.015 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 254.390 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for at least part of the year, though not all have recorded the presence of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 687.110 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 687.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( to date. In general, seasonal and annual temperatures within the study cities decrease from south-to-north, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(precipitation decreases from east-to-west. These gradients are modified in the vicinity of the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and by proximity to the ocean.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 37.669 555.000 615.750 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 653.419 m 581.250 653.419 l 581.250 652.669 l 26.250 652.669 l f q 450.000 0 0 600.000 35.250 43.669 cm /I4 Do Q q 35.250 37.669 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 15.000 37.669 577.500 739.331 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 750.278 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Data and Methods)] TJ ET BT 26.250 730.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cities)] TJ ET BT 26.250 710.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We chose fifty U.S. cities within and near the known range of )] TJ ET BT 291.245 710.919 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 340.024 710.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(Fig. 1, Table 1\). These cities were selected because )] TJ ET BT 26.250 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(they may be meteorologically suitable for )] TJ ET BT 205.611 699.015 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 254.390 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for at least part of the year, though not all have recorded the presence of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 687.110 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 687.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( to date. In general, seasonal and annual temperatures within the study cities decrease from south-to-north, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(precipitation decreases from east-to-west. These gradients are modified in the vicinity of the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 663.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and by proximity to the ocean.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 37.669 555.000 615.750 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 653.419 m 581.250 653.419 l 581.250 652.669 l 26.250 652.669 l f q 450.000 0 0 600.000 35.250 43.669 cm /I4 Do Q q 35.250 37.669 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 15.000 37.669 577.500 739.331 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 750.278 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Data and Methods)] TJ ET BT 26.250 730.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Cities)] TJ ET BT 26.250 710.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We chose fifty U.S. cities within and near the known range of )] TJ ET BT 291.245 710.919 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 340.024 710.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(Fig. 1, Table 1\). These cities were selected because )] TJ ET BT 26.250 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(they may be meteorologically suitable for )] TJ ET BT 205.611 699.015 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 254.390 699.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for at least part of the year, though not all have recorded the presence of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 687.110 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 687.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( to date. In general, seasonal and annual temperatures within the study cities decrease from south-to-north, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 675.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(precipitation decreases from east-to-west. 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G=1Z?DŸ(k &=;Ώz/G_k &eL|)?>8ďv"ӛGsgig_o>qM,89YUL\cqj_+Ώdžu_]d{˦7A"#Xk{0,$}r@ᖾ1 hZ?DŸ(NG=1[?DŸ(k &=@ {Rw9KF4]>JWdvqrNGd֍QEb(( endstream endobj 305 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 306 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 43.6695 485.2500 643.6695 ] >> endobj 306 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Table1-1.jpg) >> endobj 307 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 308 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 43.6695 485.2500 643.6695 ] >> endobj 308 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Table1-1.jpg) >> endobj 309 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 311 0 R 313 0 R 315 0 R 317 0 R 319 0 R 321 0 R 323 0 R 325 0 R 327 0 R 329 0 R 331 0 R 333 0 R 335 0 R 337 0 R 339 0 R 341 0 R 343 0 R 345 0 R 347 0 R 349 0 R 351 0 R 353 0 R 355 0 R 357 0 R 359 0 R 361 0 R 363 0 R 365 0 R 367 0 R 369 0 R 371 0 R 373 0 R 375 0 R 377 0 R 379 0 R 381 0 R 383 0 R 385 0 R 387 0 R 389 0 R 391 0 R 393 0 R 395 0 R 397 0 R 399 0 R 401 0 R 403 0 R 405 0 R 407 0 R 409 0 R 411 0 R 413 0 R 415 0 R 417 0 R 419 0 R 421 0 R 423 0 R ] /Contents 310 0 R >> endobj 310 0 obj << /Length 42001 >> stream q 15.000 25.348 577.500 751.652 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 744.514 555.000 32.486 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 744.514 m 581.250 744.514 l 581.250 745.264 l 26.250 745.264 l f q 35.250 755.764 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Table 1.)] TJ ET BT 71.559 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Coordinates, population)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 177.239 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(28)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 186.877 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and climate characteristics)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 304.452 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(30)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 314.089 771.731 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 316.499 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(31)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 326.136 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for the 50 study cities.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 727.490 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 727.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( life cycle modeling)] TJ ET BT 26.250 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To estimate the seasonal abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 223.531 708.085 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 272.311 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( we employed two life cycle models, Skeeter Buster)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 494.474 709.592 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(32)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.112 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and DyMSiM)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 562.621 709.592 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(33)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 572.259 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.180 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Both models simulate the egg, larval, pupal and adult life stages as a function of daily meteorological inputs and user specified )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.276 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(information about container habitats. Using two models enabled the quantification and reduction of model uncertainty; previous )] TJ ET BT 26.250 672.371 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(studies have shown that model ensembles provide a more accurate result than those from individual models)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 492.281 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(34)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 501.918 676.259 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.327 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(35)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 513.965 676.259 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 516.374 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(36)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 526.011 672.371 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Both )] TJ ET BT 26.250 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(models simulated daily counts of adult )] TJ ET BT 193.696 660.466 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 242.476 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes per 1 m)] TJ ET BT 330.801 664.354 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 335.620 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( of water surface for a multi-year period, as described )] TJ ET BT 26.250 648.561 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(below. The amount of water in containers was modulated primarily by rainfall and evaporation, but a fraction of water )] TJ ET BT 26.250 636.657 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(representing about 5-10% of the maximum due to rainfall was made available in containers year-round to account for the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 624.752 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(possibility that water may be available even during periods of little or no rainfall due to humans filling containers intentionally )] TJ ET BT 26.250 612.847 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(e.g., via birdbaths, kiddie pools, etc.\) or unintentionally \(e.g., during lawn irrigation\). Human-filled containers can represent an )] TJ ET BT 26.250 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(important source of water for )] TJ ET BT 153.049 600.942 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 201.828 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( habitat in arid and semi-arid regions)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 359.515 602.450 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(73)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 369.152 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. For both models, releasing new cohorts of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 589.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(eggs each month prevented extinction of mosquitoes, or \(in the case of DyMSiM\) when the population of any life stage reduced )] TJ ET BT 26.250 577.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to zero. Releases ranged from 80-100 eggs per container. This choice essentially assumes that )] TJ ET BT 440.264 577.133 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 467.906 577.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs are frequently )] TJ ET BT 26.250 565.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reintroduced into areas through transportation networks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 265.778 566.735 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(37)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 275.416 565.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( or that eggs are able to survive through periods when weather is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.323 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unfavorable for development. There is strong evidence that )] TJ ET BT 283.670 553.323 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 332.449 553.323 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs are capable of surviving even in harsh winter )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(conditions as a result of being laid in favorable cryptic environments such as subterranean habitats)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 451.652 542.926 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(38)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 461.290 541.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 522.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The DyMSiM and Skeeter Buster models differ primarily in their treatments of containers and stochasticity. DyMSiM assumes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(one large water-filled container per city)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 193.687 511.616 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(33)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 203.324 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; in this study a surface area of 1 m)] TJ ET BT 355.063 513.997 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 359.882 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was specified for each DyMSiM container, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(water volume fluctuated as a function of rainfall and evaporation but did not drop below 0.001 m)] TJ ET BT 438.675 502.093 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 443.494 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( or rise above 0.02 m)] TJ ET BT 535.075 502.093 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 539.894 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Skeeter Buster operates at the level of individual containers, and therefore was configured to simulate 10 adjacent households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(per city, each having numerous containers with a surface area totaling 1 m)] TJ ET BT 347.600 478.283 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 352.419 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Each container had a surface area of 0.01 m)] TJ ET BT 550.237 478.283 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 555.055 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(could be filled to a maximum depth of 0.2 m. As with DyMSiM, Skeeter Buster water depth was allowed to vary as a function of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rainfall and evaporation, and manual filling was performed randomly for 5% of containers on average every 7 days. The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(resulting simulated )] TJ ET BT 110.237 438.681 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 159.016 438.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( adult counts were then averaged over the 10 homes. In this manner, the initial adult mosquito )] TJ ET BT 26.250 426.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance results for both DyMSiM and Skeeter Buster were expressed for each 1 m)] TJ ET BT 395.824 430.664 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 400.642 426.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( of water surface area per city; these )] TJ ET BT 26.250 414.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(values were then normalized for presentation, as described below. Sheltering of containers \(via shading\) was also considered )] TJ ET BT 26.250 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for both models because )] TJ ET BT 135.723 402.966 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 184.502 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( prefers shaded environments)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 313.475 404.474 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(29)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 323.113 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. DyMSiM treated sheltering by reducing evaporation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 391.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(among 50% of containers and limiting the maximum water temperature to <34)] TJ ET BT 361.952 394.950 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(o)] TJ ET BT 366.771 391.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(C. Skeeter Buster assumed a sun exposure of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 379.157 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(0.1 \(i.e., 90% shade\) for containers. Additional descriptions of both models can be found in the publications cited above, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 367.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(model inputs and other study-specific details are described below.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 347.847 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Simulations were conducted with both models for the most recent eleven years, 2005-2015. The meteorological fields needed to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 335.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(drive the models daily precipitation, humidity and maximum and minimum near-surface temperature were derived from the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1/8)] TJ ET BT 39.803 327.926 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(th)] TJ ET BT 47.031 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( degree hourly meteorological forcing dataset for the North American Land Data Assimilation Phase 2 \(NLDAS-2\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 534.179 325.545 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(30)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.817 327.926 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 546.226 325.545 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(31)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 555.864 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 312.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(widely used NLDAS-2 forcing data have been employed for numerous health-related applications over North America requiring )] TJ ET BT 26.250 300.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high fidelity meteorological data)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 162.809 301.736 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(39)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 172.446 304.117 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 174.855 301.736 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(40)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 184.493 300.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The NLDAS-2 data were bilinearly interpolated to the coordinates of each city from the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 288.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(four nearest grid points.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 268.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Once the simulations were complete, the results for year 2005 were discarded to allow for model burn-in. Then, for each city )] TJ ET BT 26.250 257.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(n=50\) and each day of the year \(n=365\) the mean adult )] TJ ET BT 271.228 257.014 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 320.008 257.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance was computed from the remaining 10-year )] TJ ET BT 26.250 245.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sample \(2006-2015\) for each model. Ensemble mean values were computed by taking the geometric mean of the daily )] TJ ET BT 26.250 233.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito abundance values from both models. Using a geometric mean rather than an arithmetic mean allows the two models )] TJ ET BT 26.250 221.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to be weighted equally despite having different mean )] TJ ET BT 256.584 221.300 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 305.363 221.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance values. Next, the average daily abundance was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 209.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(computed for Miami for May-October \(Julian days 121-304\) for both models and the ensemble mean, and then the mean daily )] TJ ET BT 26.250 197.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance for each city and day of year was expressed as a percentage of this average. In this manner, the potential )] TJ ET BT 26.250 185.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance patterns across cities and for each day were normalized with respect to the average warm season conditions for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 173.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Miami. Finally, these normalized daily values were averaged for each month and city for both models and the ensemble mean. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 161.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We chose Miami and the May-October period because it is the warmest and wettest time of year in south Florida, a time when )] TJ ET BT 26.250 149.871 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is known to be abundant)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 183.430 151.379 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 193.067 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and when most transmission of )] TJ ET BT 332.872 149.871 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 381.652 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-borne viruses has occurred in the past)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 550.180 151.379 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 559.818 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 137.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(May-October in Miami thus represents high environmental suitability for )] TJ ET BT 336.183 137.967 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 384.962 137.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 118.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The normalized daily values of adult )] TJ ET BT 184.483 118.562 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 233.262 118.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance were placed into four categories to facilitate comparison )] TJ ET BT 26.250 106.657 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(across space and time: 1\) None to low for normalized abundances <2% the value of the May-Oct Miami mean; 2\) Low to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 94.752 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(moderate \(2-25%\); 3\) Moderate to high \(25-75%\); and 4\) High \(>75%\). These cut points were chosen to provide a proxy of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 82.848 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the lower quartile, the interquartile range, and the upper quartile with respect to Miami values. The None to low cut-point of 2% )] TJ ET BT 26.250 70.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rules out extremely low abundance values that are unlikely to be sufficient to generate substantial risk for human contact.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 51.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Results of simulations of adult )] TJ ET BT 158.470 51.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 207.249 51.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations are referred to in terms of potential abundance in order to emphasize that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 39.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(they indicate meteorological suitability for the mosquito but not necessarily that it is present or will occur in a given location. For )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 25.348 577.500 751.652 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 744.514 555.000 32.486 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 744.514 m 581.250 744.514 l 581.250 745.264 l 26.250 745.264 l f q 35.250 755.764 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Table 1.)] TJ ET BT 71.559 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Coordinates, population)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 177.239 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(28)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 186.877 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and climate characteristics)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 304.452 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(30)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 314.089 771.731 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 316.499 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(31)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 326.136 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for the 50 study cities.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 727.490 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 727.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( life cycle modeling)] TJ ET BT 26.250 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To estimate the seasonal abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 223.531 708.085 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 272.311 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( we employed two life cycle models, Skeeter Buster)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 494.474 709.592 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(32)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.112 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and DyMSiM)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 562.621 709.592 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(33)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 572.259 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.180 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Both models simulate the egg, larval, pupal and adult life stages as a function of daily meteorological inputs and user specified )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.276 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(information about container habitats. Using two models enabled the quantification and reduction of model uncertainty; previous )] TJ ET BT 26.250 672.371 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(studies have shown that model ensembles provide a more accurate result than those from individual models)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 492.281 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(34)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 501.918 676.259 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.327 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(35)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 513.965 676.259 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 516.374 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(36)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 526.011 672.371 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Both )] TJ ET BT 26.250 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(models simulated daily counts of adult )] TJ ET BT 193.696 660.466 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 242.476 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes per 1 m)] TJ ET BT 330.801 664.354 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 335.620 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( of water surface for a multi-year period, as described )] TJ ET BT 26.250 648.561 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(below. The amount of water in containers was modulated primarily by rainfall and evaporation, but a fraction of water )] TJ ET BT 26.250 636.657 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(representing about 5-10% of the maximum due to rainfall was made available in containers year-round to account for the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 624.752 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(possibility that water may be available even during periods of little or no rainfall due to humans filling containers intentionally )] TJ ET BT 26.250 612.847 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(e.g., via birdbaths, kiddie pools, etc.\) or unintentionally \(e.g., during lawn irrigation\). Human-filled containers can represent an )] TJ ET BT 26.250 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(important source of water for )] TJ ET BT 153.049 600.942 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 201.828 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( habitat in arid and semi-arid regions)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 359.515 602.450 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(73)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 369.152 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. For both models, releasing new cohorts of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 589.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(eggs each month prevented extinction of mosquitoes, or \(in the case of DyMSiM\) when the population of any life stage reduced )] TJ ET BT 26.250 577.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to zero. Releases ranged from 80-100 eggs per container. This choice essentially assumes that )] TJ ET BT 440.264 577.133 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 467.906 577.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs are frequently )] TJ ET BT 26.250 565.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reintroduced into areas through transportation networks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 265.778 566.735 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(37)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 275.416 565.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( or that eggs are able to survive through periods when weather is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.323 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unfavorable for development. There is strong evidence that )] TJ ET BT 283.670 553.323 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 332.449 553.323 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs are capable of surviving even in harsh winter )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(conditions as a result of being laid in favorable cryptic environments such as subterranean habitats)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 451.652 542.926 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(38)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 461.290 541.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 522.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The DyMSiM and Skeeter Buster models differ primarily in their treatments of containers and stochasticity. DyMSiM assumes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(one large water-filled container per city)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 193.687 511.616 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(33)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 203.324 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; in this study a surface area of 1 m)] TJ ET BT 355.063 513.997 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 359.882 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was specified for each DyMSiM container, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(water volume fluctuated as a function of rainfall and evaporation but did not drop below 0.001 m)] TJ ET BT 438.675 502.093 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 443.494 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( or rise above 0.02 m)] TJ ET BT 535.075 502.093 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 539.894 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Skeeter Buster operates at the level of individual containers, and therefore was configured to simulate 10 adjacent households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(per city, each having numerous containers with a surface area totaling 1 m)] TJ ET BT 347.600 478.283 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 352.419 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Each container had a surface area of 0.01 m)] TJ ET BT 550.237 478.283 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 555.055 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(could be filled to a maximum depth of 0.2 m. As with DyMSiM, Skeeter Buster water depth was allowed to vary as a function of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rainfall and evaporation, and manual filling was performed randomly for 5% of containers on average every 7 days. The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(resulting simulated )] TJ ET BT 110.237 438.681 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 159.016 438.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( adult counts were then averaged over the 10 homes. In this manner, the initial adult mosquito )] TJ ET BT 26.250 426.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance results for both DyMSiM and Skeeter Buster were expressed for each 1 m)] TJ ET BT 395.824 430.664 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 400.642 426.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( of water surface area per city; these )] TJ ET BT 26.250 414.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(values were then normalized for presentation, as described below. Sheltering of containers \(via shading\) was also considered )] TJ ET BT 26.250 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for both models because )] TJ ET BT 135.723 402.966 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 184.502 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( prefers shaded environments)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 313.475 404.474 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(29)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 323.113 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. DyMSiM treated sheltering by reducing evaporation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 391.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(among 50% of containers and limiting the maximum water temperature to <34)] TJ ET BT 361.952 394.950 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(o)] TJ ET BT 366.771 391.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(C. Skeeter Buster assumed a sun exposure of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 379.157 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(0.1 \(i.e., 90% shade\) for containers. Additional descriptions of both models can be found in the publications cited above, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 367.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(model inputs and other study-specific details are described below.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 347.847 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Simulations were conducted with both models for the most recent eleven years, 2005-2015. The meteorological fields needed to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 335.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(drive the models daily precipitation, humidity and maximum and minimum near-surface temperature were derived from the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1/8)] TJ ET BT 39.803 327.926 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(th)] TJ ET BT 47.031 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( degree hourly meteorological forcing dataset for the North American Land Data Assimilation Phase 2 \(NLDAS-2\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 534.179 325.545 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(30)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.817 327.926 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 546.226 325.545 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(31)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 555.864 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 312.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(widely used NLDAS-2 forcing data have been employed for numerous health-related applications over North America requiring )] TJ ET BT 26.250 300.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high fidelity meteorological data)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 162.809 301.736 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(39)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 172.446 304.117 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 174.855 301.736 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(40)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 184.493 300.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The NLDAS-2 data were bilinearly interpolated to the coordinates of each city from the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 288.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(four nearest grid points.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 268.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Once the simulations were complete, the results for year 2005 were discarded to allow for model burn-in. Then, for each city )] TJ ET BT 26.250 257.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(n=50\) and each day of the year \(n=365\) the mean adult )] TJ ET BT 271.228 257.014 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 320.008 257.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance was computed from the remaining 10-year )] TJ ET BT 26.250 245.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sample \(2006-2015\) for each model. Ensemble mean values were computed by taking the geometric mean of the daily )] TJ ET BT 26.250 233.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito abundance values from both models. Using a geometric mean rather than an arithmetic mean allows the two models )] TJ ET BT 26.250 221.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to be weighted equally despite having different mean )] TJ ET BT 256.584 221.300 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 305.363 221.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance values. Next, the average daily abundance was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 209.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(computed for Miami for May-October \(Julian days 121-304\) for both models and the ensemble mean, and then the mean daily )] TJ ET BT 26.250 197.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance for each city and day of year was expressed as a percentage of this average. In this manner, the potential )] TJ ET BT 26.250 185.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance patterns across cities and for each day were normalized with respect to the average warm season conditions for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 173.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Miami. Finally, these normalized daily values were averaged for each month and city for both models and the ensemble mean. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 161.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We chose Miami and the May-October period because it is the warmest and wettest time of year in south Florida, a time when )] TJ ET BT 26.250 149.871 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is known to be abundant)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 183.430 151.379 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 193.067 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and when most transmission of )] TJ ET BT 332.872 149.871 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 381.652 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-borne viruses has occurred in the past)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 550.180 151.379 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 559.818 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 137.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(May-October in Miami thus represents high environmental suitability for )] TJ ET BT 336.183 137.967 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 384.962 137.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 118.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The normalized daily values of adult )] TJ ET BT 184.483 118.562 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 233.262 118.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance were placed into four categories to facilitate comparison )] TJ ET BT 26.250 106.657 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(across space and time: 1\) None to low for normalized abundances <2% the value of the May-Oct Miami mean; 2\) Low to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 94.752 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(moderate \(2-25%\); 3\) Moderate to high \(25-75%\); and 4\) High \(>75%\). These cut points were chosen to provide a proxy of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 82.848 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the lower quartile, the interquartile range, and the upper quartile with respect to Miami values. The None to low cut-point of 2% )] TJ ET BT 26.250 70.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rules out extremely low abundance values that are unlikely to be sufficient to generate substantial risk for human contact.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 51.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Results of simulations of adult )] TJ ET BT 158.470 51.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 207.249 51.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations are referred to in terms of potential abundance in order to emphasize that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 39.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(they indicate meteorological suitability for the mosquito but not necessarily that it is present or will occur in a given location. For )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 25.348 577.500 751.652 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 744.514 555.000 32.486 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 744.514 m 581.250 744.514 l 581.250 745.264 l 26.250 745.264 l f q 35.250 755.764 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Table 1.)] TJ ET BT 71.559 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( Coordinates, population)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 177.239 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(28)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 186.877 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and climate characteristics)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 304.452 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(30)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 314.089 771.731 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 316.499 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(31)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 326.136 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for the 50 study cities.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 727.490 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 727.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( life cycle modeling)] TJ ET BT 26.250 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To estimate the seasonal abundance of adult )] TJ ET BT 223.531 708.085 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 272.311 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( we employed two life cycle models, Skeeter Buster)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 494.474 709.592 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(32)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.112 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and DyMSiM)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 562.621 709.592 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(33)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 572.259 708.085 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 696.180 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Both models simulate the egg, larval, pupal and adult life stages as a function of daily meteorological inputs and user specified )] TJ ET BT 26.250 684.276 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(information about container habitats. Using two models enabled the quantification and reduction of model uncertainty; previous )] TJ ET BT 26.250 672.371 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(studies have shown that model ensembles provide a more accurate result than those from individual models)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 492.281 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(34)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 501.918 676.259 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.327 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(35)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 513.965 676.259 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 516.374 673.878 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(36)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 526.011 672.371 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Both )] TJ ET BT 26.250 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(models simulated daily counts of adult )] TJ ET BT 193.696 660.466 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 242.476 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes per 1 m)] TJ ET BT 330.801 664.354 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 335.620 660.466 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( of water surface for a multi-year period, as described )] TJ ET BT 26.250 648.561 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(below. The amount of water in containers was modulated primarily by rainfall and evaporation, but a fraction of water )] TJ ET BT 26.250 636.657 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(representing about 5-10% of the maximum due to rainfall was made available in containers year-round to account for the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 624.752 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(possibility that water may be available even during periods of little or no rainfall due to humans filling containers intentionally )] TJ ET BT 26.250 612.847 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(e.g., via birdbaths, kiddie pools, etc.\) or unintentionally \(e.g., during lawn irrigation\). Human-filled containers can represent an )] TJ ET BT 26.250 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(important source of water for )] TJ ET BT 153.049 600.942 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 201.828 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( habitat in arid and semi-arid regions)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 359.515 602.450 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(73)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 369.152 600.942 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. For both models, releasing new cohorts of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 589.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(eggs each month prevented extinction of mosquitoes, or \(in the case of DyMSiM\) when the population of any life stage reduced )] TJ ET BT 26.250 577.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to zero. Releases ranged from 80-100 eggs per container. This choice essentially assumes that )] TJ ET BT 440.264 577.133 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 467.906 577.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs are frequently )] TJ ET BT 26.250 565.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reintroduced into areas through transportation networks)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 265.778 566.735 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(37)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 275.416 565.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( or that eggs are able to survive through periods when weather is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 553.323 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unfavorable for development. There is strong evidence that )] TJ ET BT 283.670 553.323 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 332.449 553.323 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs are capable of surviving even in harsh winter )] TJ ET BT 26.250 541.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(conditions as a result of being laid in favorable cryptic environments such as subterranean habitats)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 451.652 542.926 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(38)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 461.290 541.419 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 522.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The DyMSiM and Skeeter Buster models differ primarily in their treatments of containers and stochasticity. DyMSiM assumes )] TJ ET BT 26.250 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(one large water-filled container per city)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 193.687 511.616 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(33)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 203.324 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; in this study a surface area of 1 m)] TJ ET BT 355.063 513.997 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 359.882 510.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was specified for each DyMSiM container, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(water volume fluctuated as a function of rainfall and evaporation but did not drop below 0.001 m)] TJ ET BT 438.675 502.093 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 443.494 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( or rise above 0.02 m)] TJ ET BT 535.075 502.093 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(3)] TJ ET BT 539.894 498.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 486.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Skeeter Buster operates at the level of individual containers, and therefore was configured to simulate 10 adjacent households )] TJ ET BT 26.250 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(per city, each having numerous containers with a surface area totaling 1 m)] TJ ET BT 347.600 478.283 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 352.419 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Each container had a surface area of 0.01 m)] TJ ET BT 550.237 478.283 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 555.055 474.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 462.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(could be filled to a maximum depth of 0.2 m. As with DyMSiM, Skeeter Buster water depth was allowed to vary as a function of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 450.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rainfall and evaporation, and manual filling was performed randomly for 5% of containers on average every 7 days. The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 438.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(resulting simulated )] TJ ET BT 110.237 438.681 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 159.016 438.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( adult counts were then averaged over the 10 homes. In this manner, the initial adult mosquito )] TJ ET BT 26.250 426.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance results for both DyMSiM and Skeeter Buster were expressed for each 1 m)] TJ ET BT 395.824 430.664 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 400.642 426.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( of water surface area per city; these )] TJ ET BT 26.250 414.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(values were then normalized for presentation, as described below. Sheltering of containers \(via shading\) was also considered )] TJ ET BT 26.250 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for both models because )] TJ ET BT 135.723 402.966 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 184.502 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( prefers shaded environments)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 313.475 404.474 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(29)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 323.113 402.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. DyMSiM treated sheltering by reducing evaporation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 391.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(among 50% of containers and limiting the maximum water temperature to <34)] TJ ET BT 361.952 394.950 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(o)] TJ ET BT 366.771 391.062 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(C. Skeeter Buster assumed a sun exposure of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 379.157 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(0.1 \(i.e., 90% shade\) for containers. Additional descriptions of both models can be found in the publications cited above, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 367.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(model inputs and other study-specific details are described below.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 347.847 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Simulations were conducted with both models for the most recent eleven years, 2005-2015. The meteorological fields needed to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 335.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(drive the models daily precipitation, humidity and maximum and minimum near-surface temperature were derived from the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(1/8)] TJ ET BT 39.803 327.926 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(th)] TJ ET BT 47.031 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( degree hourly meteorological forcing dataset for the North American Land Data Assimilation Phase 2 \(NLDAS-2\))] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 534.179 325.545 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(30)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 543.817 327.926 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 546.226 325.545 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(31)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 555.864 324.038 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The )] TJ ET BT 26.250 312.133 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(widely used NLDAS-2 forcing data have been employed for numerous health-related applications over North America requiring )] TJ ET BT 26.250 300.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high fidelity meteorological data)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 162.809 301.736 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(39)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 172.446 304.117 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 174.855 301.736 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(40)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 184.493 300.228 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The NLDAS-2 data were bilinearly interpolated to the coordinates of each city from the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 288.324 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(four nearest grid points.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 268.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Once the simulations were complete, the results for year 2005 were discarded to allow for model burn-in. Then, for each city )] TJ ET BT 26.250 257.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(n=50\) and each day of the year \(n=365\) the mean adult )] TJ ET BT 271.228 257.014 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 320.008 257.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance was computed from the remaining 10-year )] TJ ET BT 26.250 245.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sample \(2006-2015\) for each model. Ensemble mean values were computed by taking the geometric mean of the daily )] TJ ET BT 26.250 233.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito abundance values from both models. Using a geometric mean rather than an arithmetic mean allows the two models )] TJ ET BT 26.250 221.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to be weighted equally despite having different mean )] TJ ET BT 256.584 221.300 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 305.363 221.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance values. Next, the average daily abundance was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 209.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(computed for Miami for May-October \(Julian days 121-304\) for both models and the ensemble mean, and then the mean daily )] TJ ET BT 26.250 197.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance for each city and day of year was expressed as a percentage of this average. In this manner, the potential )] TJ ET BT 26.250 185.586 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance patterns across cities and for each day were normalized with respect to the average warm season conditions for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 173.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Miami. Finally, these normalized daily values were averaged for each month and city for both models and the ensemble mean. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 161.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We chose Miami and the May-October period because it is the warmest and wettest time of year in south Florida, a time when )] TJ ET BT 26.250 149.871 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is known to be abundant)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 183.430 151.379 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 193.067 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and when most transmission of )] TJ ET BT 332.872 149.871 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 381.652 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-borne viruses has occurred in the past)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 550.180 151.379 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 559.818 149.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 137.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(May-October in Miami thus represents high environmental suitability for )] TJ ET BT 336.183 137.967 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 384.962 137.967 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 118.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The normalized daily values of adult )] TJ ET BT 184.483 118.562 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 233.262 118.562 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance were placed into four categories to facilitate comparison )] TJ ET BT 26.250 106.657 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(across space and time: 1\) None to low for normalized abundances <2% the value of the May-Oct Miami mean; 2\) Low to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 94.752 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(moderate \(2-25%\); 3\) Moderate to high \(25-75%\); and 4\) High \(>75%\). These cut points were chosen to provide a proxy of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 82.848 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the lower quartile, the interquartile range, and the upper quartile with respect to Miami values. The None to low cut-point of 2% )] TJ ET BT 26.250 70.943 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rules out extremely low abundance values that are unlikely to be sufficient to generate substantial risk for human contact.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 51.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Results of simulations of adult )] TJ ET BT 158.470 51.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 207.249 51.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations are referred to in terms of potential abundance in order to emphasize that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 39.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(they indicate meteorological suitability for the mosquito but not necessarily that it is present or will occur in a given location. For )] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(4)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 311 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 312 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 177.2392 768.1817 186.8766 777.0000 ] >> endobj 312 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 313 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 314 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 304.4518 768.1817 314.0892 777.0000 ] >> endobj 314 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 315 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 316 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 316.4985 768.1817 326.1358 777.0000 ] >> endobj 316 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 317 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 318 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 494.4742 708.7907 504.1116 717.6090 ] >> endobj 318 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 319 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 320 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 562.6213 708.7907 572.2587 717.6090 ] >> endobj 320 0 obj << /Type /Action >> 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487 0 R 489 0 R 491 0 R 493 0 R 495 0 R 497 0 R 499 0 R 501 0 R 503 0 R 505 0 R 507 0 R 509 0 R 511 0 R 513 0 R 515 0 R ] /Contents 426 0 R >> endobj 426 0 obj << /Length 34369 >> stream 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg q 15.000 23.429 577.500 753.571 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(example, we find that Denver, CO has low-to-moderate potential abundance for the mosquito during the summer months, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(however as of this writing presence of the mosquito has not been detected there. Possible reasons that )] TJ ET BT 473.356 755.571 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 522.135 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( does not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(occur in some cities that exhibit meteorological suitability during part of the year include a lack of eggs being introduced during )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the warm months, or a lack of water availability \(particularly in western U.S. cities\).)] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Model validation data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 692.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Validating the simulations of potential seasonal abundance of )] TJ ET BT 293.439 692.952 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 342.218 692.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was challenging because there are few observational )] TJ ET BT 26.250 681.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(records of seasonally-resolved )] TJ ET BT 161.171 681.048 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 209.950 681.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance \(for any life stage\) that can provide comparative benchmarks. Focks et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.887 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( present graphical records of weekly ovitrap accumulations of )] TJ ET BT 302.491 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 351.271 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs for 1981-1985 from a number of southeastern )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. cities, based on unpublished data from CDC. We were unable to obtain the ovitrap data from Focks et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 499.339 658.745 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 508.977 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( at the time this )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(manuscript was submitted, which limited us to a qualitative comparison of our simulated adult abundance to the ovitrap data. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(However, we did find quantitative seasonal records for two cities, in two different climatic settings and compared the seasonality )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of observed vs. modeled )] TJ ET BT 135.177 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 183.956 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance. The first dataset contains )] TJ ET BT 351.968 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 400.748 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( immature abundance collected from 30 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sites covering a 675 km)] TJ ET BT 128.664 613.507 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 133.483 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( area of Palm Beach, FL, collected over 27 four-week periods from 2006-2008)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.468 611.126 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 479.105 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 484.526 609.619 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(immature abundance was determined from samples collected in the field from ovitraps \(eggs\) or from water in containers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(larvae\), and reared in a laboratory to fourth-instar larvae or pupal stages for identification to species. A comparison of results )] TJ ET BT 26.250 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from a variety of adult and egg trapping methods for )] TJ ET BT 252.781 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 301.561 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(44)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 311.198 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( showed that the seasonal cycle of abundance for trapped )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults versus trapped eggs was similar, suggesting that validating our normalized simulated adult abundance results to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(normalized egg/larval abundance results)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 201.282 551.603 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 210.919 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is a reasonable approach. Palm Beach is located just north of Miami, FL and has )] TJ ET BT 26.250 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(similar climatic conditions; therefore we consider this dataset to be representative of Miami. The second dataset contains )] TJ ET BT 26.250 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unpublished monthly adult abundance for 750 trapping sites across Phoenix, AZ collected over 10 years from 2006-2015 by co-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 514.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(author KAS and colleagues. Samples were collected with CDC light traps baited with CO2 and laboratory-identified to species. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Miami has a warm humid climate, and Phoenix has a warm desert climate. Both cities have distinct wet and dry seasons.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 483.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Transportation data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 463.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To understand the potential for human introduction of ZIKAV, we determined the number of air travelers arriving in the U.S. from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 451.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(airports in Latin American countries and territories listed on the CDC Zika travel advisory as of 29 January 2016)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.350 453.269 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(45)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.987 451.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. These )] TJ ET BT 26.250 439.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(countries and territories included the U.S. Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Barbados, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 427.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Martinique, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 416.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Martin, Suriname, and Venezuela. We did not include Cape Verde and Samoa, two countries )] TJ ET BT 26.250 404.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(not in Latin America that account for a very small fraction of passengers into the United States. Monthly estimated passenger )] TJ ET BT 26.250 392.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(counts on outbound international flights to airports in these countries originating from the U.S. were obtained for year 2014 from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a database maintained by the U.S. Department of Transportation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 305.890 381.841 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(46)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 315.527 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Inbound passenger counts were not available, however the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 368.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data curator confirmed that they are approximately equal to outbound counts \(personal communication, Michael Lane, USDOT\); )] TJ ET BT 26.250 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we confirmed this by analyzing international flight data for domestic carriers only \(for which both inbound and outbound counts )] TJ ET BT 26.250 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(exist\) and found that inbound and outbound passenger counts differ by <1% for monthly and longer timescales)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 502.362 346.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(47)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 511.999 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Passenger )] TJ ET BT 26.250 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data were only available for the international leg of each flight and therefore do not indicate the number of passengers traveling )] TJ ET BT 26.250 320.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(on to secondary and tertiary U.S. destinations. Therefore, it is likely that passenger numbers are overestimated for large )] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(international hubs \(e.g., Miami, Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles\) and underestimated for smaller airports that primarily serve )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(domestic passengers \(e.g., New Orleans, Nashville, Jacksonville\). Additionally, it is probable that some passengers were from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Latin American countries not on the CDC ZIKAV travel advisory \(e.g., Argentina, Chile\) who had traveled through major )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(international airports in countries on the advisory.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 253.786 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Because Mexico shares a border with the U.S. and is on the CDC ZIKAV travel advisory, we also obtained year 2014 estimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 241.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of the monthly number of persons crossing into the U.S. from Mexico along the land border by passenger vehicle, bus, train or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 229.977 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(as pedestrians)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 89.654 231.484 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(48)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 99.292 229.977 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 210.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We did not obtain data for cruise ship arrivals, though a number of ports along the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern seaboard )] TJ ET BT 26.250 198.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(depart to areas of the Caribbean with ongoing Zika transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 302.623 200.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(49)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 312.261 198.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 179.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(DENV and CHIKV transmission data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 159.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To provide information about the location of )] TJ ET BT 216.472 159.858 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 244.114 159.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted virus outbreaks we mapped counties with confirmed local DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 147.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and CHIKV transmission in the contiguous U.S. from 1 January 20106 February 2016. Data were obtained from The Florida )] TJ ET BT 26.250 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Department of Health)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 118.914 137.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 128.551 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and from the CDC ArboNET via the United States Geological Survey Disease Mapper)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.816 137.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(50)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.453 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. It is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 124.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(noteworthy that DENV transmission occurred in the contiguous U.S. prior to 2010, however those reported cases were more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 112.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(difficult to confirm and additionally were mainly from counties in Florida and Texas already identified as having DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 100.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission using the \(more reliable\) data from 2010 onward.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 80.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Human exposure data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Vector-human contact is likely modulated by socioeconomic factors. Impoverished communities are at higher risk of introduction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of infectious diseases)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 119.460 51.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(51)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 129.097 49.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Poverty has been linked to a number of indicators of elevated exposure to mosquitoes such as lower )] TJ ET BT 26.250 37.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(usage rates of air conditioning and less efficient cooling options)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 299.387 39.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(52)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 309.024 37.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, poorer housing infrastructure such as screening of windows)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 571.299 39.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(53)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 23.429 577.500 753.571 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(example, we find that Denver, CO has low-to-moderate potential abundance for the mosquito during the summer months, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(however as of this writing presence of the mosquito has not been detected there. Possible reasons that )] TJ ET BT 473.356 755.571 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 522.135 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( does not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(occur in some cities that exhibit meteorological suitability during part of the year include a lack of eggs being introduced during )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the warm months, or a lack of water availability \(particularly in western U.S. cities\).)] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Model validation data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 692.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Validating the simulations of potential seasonal abundance of )] TJ ET BT 293.439 692.952 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 342.218 692.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was challenging because there are few observational )] TJ ET BT 26.250 681.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(records of seasonally-resolved )] TJ ET BT 161.171 681.048 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 209.950 681.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance \(for any life stage\) that can provide comparative benchmarks. Focks et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.887 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( present graphical records of weekly ovitrap accumulations of )] TJ ET BT 302.491 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 351.271 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs for 1981-1985 from a number of southeastern )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. cities, based on unpublished data from CDC. We were unable to obtain the ovitrap data from Focks et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 499.339 658.745 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 508.977 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( at the time this )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(manuscript was submitted, which limited us to a qualitative comparison of our simulated adult abundance to the ovitrap data. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(However, we did find quantitative seasonal records for two cities, in two different climatic settings and compared the seasonality )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of observed vs. modeled )] TJ ET BT 135.177 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 183.956 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance. The first dataset contains )] TJ ET BT 351.968 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 400.748 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( immature abundance collected from 30 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sites covering a 675 km)] TJ ET BT 128.664 613.507 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 133.483 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( area of Palm Beach, FL, collected over 27 four-week periods from 2006-2008)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.468 611.126 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 479.105 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 484.526 609.619 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(immature abundance was determined from samples collected in the field from ovitraps \(eggs\) or from water in containers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(larvae\), and reared in a laboratory to fourth-instar larvae or pupal stages for identification to species. A comparison of results )] TJ ET BT 26.250 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from a variety of adult and egg trapping methods for )] TJ ET BT 252.781 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 301.561 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(44)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 311.198 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( showed that the seasonal cycle of abundance for trapped )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults versus trapped eggs was similar, suggesting that validating our normalized simulated adult abundance results to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(normalized egg/larval abundance results)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 201.282 551.603 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 210.919 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is a reasonable approach. Palm Beach is located just north of Miami, FL and has )] TJ ET BT 26.250 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(similar climatic conditions; therefore we consider this dataset to be representative of Miami. The second dataset contains )] TJ ET BT 26.250 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unpublished monthly adult abundance for 750 trapping sites across Phoenix, AZ collected over 10 years from 2006-2015 by co-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 514.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(author KAS and colleagues. Samples were collected with CDC light traps baited with CO2 and laboratory-identified to species. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Miami has a warm humid climate, and Phoenix has a warm desert climate. Both cities have distinct wet and dry seasons.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 483.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Transportation data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 463.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To understand the potential for human introduction of ZIKAV, we determined the number of air travelers arriving in the U.S. from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 451.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(airports in Latin American countries and territories listed on the CDC Zika travel advisory as of 29 January 2016)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.350 453.269 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(45)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.987 451.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. These )] TJ ET BT 26.250 439.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(countries and territories included the U.S. Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Barbados, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 427.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Martinique, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 416.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Martin, Suriname, and Venezuela. We did not include Cape Verde and Samoa, two countries )] TJ ET BT 26.250 404.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(not in Latin America that account for a very small fraction of passengers into the United States. Monthly estimated passenger )] TJ ET BT 26.250 392.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(counts on outbound international flights to airports in these countries originating from the U.S. were obtained for year 2014 from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a database maintained by the U.S. Department of Transportation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 305.890 381.841 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(46)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 315.527 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Inbound passenger counts were not available, however the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 368.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data curator confirmed that they are approximately equal to outbound counts \(personal communication, Michael Lane, USDOT\); )] TJ ET BT 26.250 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we confirmed this by analyzing international flight data for domestic carriers only \(for which both inbound and outbound counts )] TJ ET BT 26.250 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(exist\) and found that inbound and outbound passenger counts differ by <1% for monthly and longer timescales)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 502.362 346.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(47)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 511.999 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Passenger )] TJ ET BT 26.250 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data were only available for the international leg of each flight and therefore do not indicate the number of passengers traveling )] TJ ET BT 26.250 320.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(on to secondary and tertiary U.S. destinations. Therefore, it is likely that passenger numbers are overestimated for large )] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(international hubs \(e.g., Miami, Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles\) and underestimated for smaller airports that primarily serve )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(domestic passengers \(e.g., New Orleans, Nashville, Jacksonville\). Additionally, it is probable that some passengers were from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Latin American countries not on the CDC ZIKAV travel advisory \(e.g., Argentina, Chile\) who had traveled through major )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(international airports in countries on the advisory.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 253.786 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Because Mexico shares a border with the U.S. and is on the CDC ZIKAV travel advisory, we also obtained year 2014 estimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 241.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of the monthly number of persons crossing into the U.S. from Mexico along the land border by passenger vehicle, bus, train or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 229.977 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(as pedestrians)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 89.654 231.484 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(48)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 99.292 229.977 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 210.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We did not obtain data for cruise ship arrivals, though a number of ports along the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern seaboard )] TJ ET BT 26.250 198.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(depart to areas of the Caribbean with ongoing Zika transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 302.623 200.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(49)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 312.261 198.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 179.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(DENV and CHIKV transmission data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 159.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To provide information about the location of )] TJ ET BT 216.472 159.858 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 244.114 159.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted virus outbreaks we mapped counties with confirmed local DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 147.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and CHIKV transmission in the contiguous U.S. from 1 January 20106 February 2016. Data were obtained from The Florida )] TJ ET BT 26.250 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Department of Health)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 118.914 137.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 128.551 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and from the CDC ArboNET via the United States Geological Survey Disease Mapper)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.816 137.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(50)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.453 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. It is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 124.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(noteworthy that DENV transmission occurred in the contiguous U.S. prior to 2010, however those reported cases were more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 112.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(difficult to confirm and additionally were mainly from counties in Florida and Texas already identified as having DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 100.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission using the \(more reliable\) data from 2010 onward.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 80.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Human exposure data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Vector-human contact is likely modulated by socioeconomic factors. Impoverished communities are at higher risk of introduction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of infectious diseases)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 119.460 51.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(51)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 129.097 49.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Poverty has been linked to a number of indicators of elevated exposure to mosquitoes such as lower )] TJ ET BT 26.250 37.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(usage rates of air conditioning and less efficient cooling options)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 299.387 39.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(52)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 309.024 37.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, poorer housing infrastructure such as screening of windows)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 571.299 39.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(53)] TJ ET Q q 15.000 23.429 577.500 753.571 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(example, we find that Denver, CO has low-to-moderate potential abundance for the mosquito during the summer months, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(however as of this writing presence of the mosquito has not been detected there. Possible reasons that )] TJ ET BT 473.356 755.571 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 522.135 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( does not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(occur in some cities that exhibit meteorological suitability during part of the year include a lack of eggs being introduced during )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the warm months, or a lack of water availability \(particularly in western U.S. cities\).)] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Model validation data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 692.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Validating the simulations of potential seasonal abundance of )] TJ ET BT 293.439 692.952 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 342.218 692.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was challenging because there are few observational )] TJ ET BT 26.250 681.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(records of seasonally-resolved )] TJ ET BT 161.171 681.048 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 209.950 681.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance \(for any life stage\) that can provide comparative benchmarks. Focks et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.887 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( present graphical records of weekly ovitrap accumulations of )] TJ ET BT 302.491 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 351.271 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( eggs for 1981-1985 from a number of southeastern )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. cities, based on unpublished data from CDC. We were unable to obtain the ovitrap data from Focks et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 499.339 658.745 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 508.977 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( at the time this )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(manuscript was submitted, which limited us to a qualitative comparison of our simulated adult abundance to the ovitrap data. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(However, we did find quantitative seasonal records for two cities, in two different climatic settings and compared the seasonality )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of observed vs. modeled )] TJ ET BT 135.177 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 183.956 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance. The first dataset contains )] TJ ET BT 351.968 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 400.748 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( immature abundance collected from 30 )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sites covering a 675 km)] TJ ET BT 128.664 613.507 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(2)] TJ ET BT 133.483 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( area of Palm Beach, FL, collected over 27 four-week periods from 2006-2008)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 469.468 611.126 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 479.105 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 484.526 609.619 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(immature abundance was determined from samples collected in the field from ovitraps \(eggs\) or from water in containers )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(larvae\), and reared in a laboratory to fourth-instar larvae or pupal stages for identification to species. A comparison of results )] TJ ET BT 26.250 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(from a variety of adult and egg trapping methods for )] TJ ET BT 252.781 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 301.561 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(44)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 311.198 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( showed that the seasonal cycle of abundance for trapped )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(adults versus trapped eggs was similar, suggesting that validating our normalized simulated adult abundance results to )] TJ ET BT 26.250 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(normalized egg/larval abundance results)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 201.282 551.603 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 210.919 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is a reasonable approach. Palm Beach is located just north of Miami, FL and has )] TJ ET BT 26.250 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(similar climatic conditions; therefore we consider this dataset to be representative of Miami. The second dataset contains )] TJ ET BT 26.250 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unpublished monthly adult abundance for 750 trapping sites across Phoenix, AZ collected over 10 years from 2006-2015 by co-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 514.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(author KAS and colleagues. Samples were collected with CDC light traps baited with CO2 and laboratory-identified to species. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Miami has a warm humid climate, and Phoenix has a warm desert climate. Both cities have distinct wet and dry seasons.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 483.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Transportation data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 463.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To understand the potential for human introduction of ZIKAV, we determined the number of air travelers arriving in the U.S. from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 451.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(airports in Latin American countries and territories listed on the CDC Zika travel advisory as of 29 January 2016)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.350 453.269 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(45)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 515.987 451.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. These )] TJ ET BT 26.250 439.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(countries and territories included the U.S. Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Barbados, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 427.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Martinique, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 416.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Martin, Suriname, and Venezuela. We did not include Cape Verde and Samoa, two countries )] TJ ET BT 26.250 404.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(not in Latin America that account for a very small fraction of passengers into the United States. Monthly estimated passenger )] TJ ET BT 26.250 392.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(counts on outbound international flights to airports in these countries originating from the U.S. were obtained for year 2014 from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(a database maintained by the U.S. Department of Transportation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 305.890 381.841 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(46)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 315.527 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Inbound passenger counts were not available, however the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 368.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data curator confirmed that they are approximately equal to outbound counts \(personal communication, Michael Lane, USDOT\); )] TJ ET BT 26.250 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(we confirmed this by analyzing international flight data for domestic carriers only \(for which both inbound and outbound counts )] TJ ET BT 26.250 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(exist\) and found that inbound and outbound passenger counts differ by <1% for monthly and longer timescales)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 502.362 346.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(47)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 511.999 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Passenger )] TJ ET BT 26.250 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(data were only available for the international leg of each flight and therefore do not indicate the number of passengers traveling )] TJ ET BT 26.250 320.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(on to secondary and tertiary U.S. destinations. Therefore, it is likely that passenger numbers are overestimated for large )] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(international hubs \(e.g., Miami, Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles\) and underestimated for smaller airports that primarily serve )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(domestic passengers \(e.g., New Orleans, Nashville, Jacksonville\). Additionally, it is probable that some passengers were from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Latin American countries not on the CDC ZIKAV travel advisory \(e.g., Argentina, Chile\) who had traveled through major )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(international airports in countries on the advisory.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 253.786 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Because Mexico shares a border with the U.S. and is on the CDC ZIKAV travel advisory, we also obtained year 2014 estimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 241.881 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of the monthly number of persons crossing into the U.S. from Mexico along the land border by passenger vehicle, bus, train or )] TJ ET BT 26.250 229.977 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(as pedestrians)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 89.654 231.484 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(48)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 99.292 229.977 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 210.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We did not obtain data for cruise ship arrivals, though a number of ports along the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern seaboard )] TJ ET BT 26.250 198.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(depart to areas of the Caribbean with ongoing Zika transmission)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 302.623 200.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(49)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 312.261 198.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 179.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(DENV and CHIKV transmission data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 159.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(To provide information about the location of )] TJ ET BT 216.472 159.858 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 244.114 159.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted virus outbreaks we mapped counties with confirmed local DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 147.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and CHIKV transmission in the contiguous U.S. from 1 January 20106 February 2016. Data were obtained from The Florida )] TJ ET BT 26.250 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Department of Health)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 118.914 137.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 128.551 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and from the CDC ArboNET via the United States Geological Survey Disease Mapper)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.816 137.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(50)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 510.453 136.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. It is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 124.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(noteworthy that DENV transmission occurred in the contiguous U.S. prior to 2010, however those reported cases were more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 112.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(difficult to confirm and additionally were mainly from counties in Florida and Texas already identified as having DENV )] TJ ET BT 26.250 100.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission using the \(more reliable\) data from 2010 onward.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 80.929 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Human exposure data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 61.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Vector-human contact is likely modulated by socioeconomic factors. Impoverished communities are at higher risk of introduction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 49.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of infectious diseases)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 119.460 51.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(51)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 129.097 49.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Poverty has been linked to a number of indicators of elevated exposure to mosquitoes such as lower )] TJ ET BT 26.250 37.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(usage rates of air conditioning and less efficient cooling options)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 299.387 39.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(52)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 309.024 37.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, poorer housing infrastructure such as screening of windows)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 571.299 39.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(53)] TJ ET Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(5)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 427 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 428 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 669.8484 35.8873 678.6667 ] >> endobj 428 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 429 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 430 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 499.3395 657.9437 508.9768 666.7620 ] >> endobj 430 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 431 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link 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To better understand potential human exposure to adult )] TJ ET BT 535.565 767.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(aegypti)] TJ ET BT 57.684 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, we obtained and mapped 2014 county-level data for the percentage of households living below the poverty line from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the U.S. Census Bureau)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 131.384 745.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(55)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 141.022 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The poverty line varies according to the size of a family and ages of its members. Thresholds do not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(vary geographically but they are updated annually for inflation. In 2014, the poverty line was \(for example\) defined by an annual )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income of $12,316 for a household with a single adult under 65 years, and $24,008 for a household with two adults and two )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children under 18 years.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Maximum)] TJ ET BT 68.497 688.548 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 96.138 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( geographic range data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(A recent compendium of observed )] TJ ET BT 177.443 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 226.222 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 247.906 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 309.146 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( presence locations collected between 1960-2014)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 523.217 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(56)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 532.855 673.031 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 535.264 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(57)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 544.901 673.031 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 547.311 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(58)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 556.948 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(used to provide background information on the maximum known geographic range of both mosquitoes in the U.S. \(Fig. S1\). )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These data were augmented by surveillance data of both )] TJ ET BT 274.466 645.333 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 302.107 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( species across southern and central California)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.770 646.841 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(59)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 514.408 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Known )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ranges for both species were then established by outlining areas in which presence locations were recorded \(Fig. 1\). Such )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(information is useful for placing our results for simulated seasonal potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 413.179 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 461.958 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( into context, as the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito may not exist in some cities where seasonally suitable meteorological conditions exist, for example because eggs are )] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unable to overwinter)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 114.039 599.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(60)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 123.676 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, mapping known occurrences of )] TJ ET BT 322.011 597.714 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 349.652 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes enables comparison of the simulated )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential range of )] TJ ET BT 104.299 585.810 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 153.078 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( to the known range of )] TJ ET BT 252.265 585.810 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 313.505 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, which is also a competent vector of ZIKAV in some regions)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.887 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This is important because )] TJ ET BT 155.101 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 216.340 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(which was not simulated in this study\) has greater cold tolerance than )] TJ ET BT 525.220 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 574.000 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and therefore could facilitate seasonal ZIKAV transmission risk in more northerly U.S. cities where )] TJ ET BT 451.067 562.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 499.846 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is not found)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 552.965 563.507 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(61)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 562.602 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 525.398 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Results)] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Simulated potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 173.670 505.443 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 222.449 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( adults is zero or near-zero throughout the U.S. in January except in southern )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Florida and Texas \(Fig. 1\). By mid-July, all fifty cities are meteorologically suitable for )] TJ ET BT 394.693 493.539 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 443.472 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, with far southeastern cities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(being suitable for high abundance, and other eastern cities being suitable for moderate-to-high abundance. Cities in the western )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. are suitable for low-to-moderate abundance of )] TJ ET BT 250.061 469.729 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 298.841 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Some cities that are suitable in mid-summer are not within the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present known range for )] TJ ET BT 134.095 457.824 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 182.874 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(e.g., Denver, Albuquerque, Louisville\). As the season progresses from winter to summer )] TJ ET BT 26.250 445.920 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 445.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance begins to increase in April in the southeastern U.S. and some cities in Arizona \(Fig. 2\). By June )] TJ ET BT 26.250 434.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(nearly all cities exhibit the potential for at least low-to-moderate abundance, and most eastern cities are suitable for moderate-to-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 422.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high abundance. Conditions are most suitable in July, August and September during the warmest \(and in many cities wettest\) )] TJ ET BT 26.250 410.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(time of year. Conditions in the southern and western states remain suitable through November, and by December are largely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 398.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unsuitable again, except for southern Florida and Texas.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 -64.580 555.000 453.000 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 388.420 m 581.250 388.420 l 581.250 387.670 l 26.250 387.670 l f q 450.000 0 0 437.250 35.250 -58.580 cm /I5 Do Q q 35.250 -64.580 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 15.000 -64.580 577.500 841.580 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, as well as decreased access to safe water and sanitation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.702 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(54)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 287.340 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. To better understand potential human exposure to adult )] TJ ET BT 535.565 767.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(aegypti)] TJ ET BT 57.684 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, we obtained and mapped 2014 county-level data for the percentage of households living below the poverty line from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the U.S. Census Bureau)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 131.384 745.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(55)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 141.022 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The poverty line varies according to the size of a family and ages of its members. Thresholds do not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(vary geographically but they are updated annually for inflation. In 2014, the poverty line was \(for example\) defined by an annual )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income of $12,316 for a household with a single adult under 65 years, and $24,008 for a household with two adults and two )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children under 18 years.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Maximum)] TJ ET BT 68.497 688.548 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 96.138 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( geographic range data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(A recent compendium of observed )] TJ ET BT 177.443 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 226.222 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 247.906 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 309.146 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( presence locations collected between 1960-2014)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 523.217 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(56)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 532.855 673.031 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 535.264 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(57)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 544.901 673.031 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 547.311 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(58)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 556.948 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(used to provide background information on the maximum known geographic range of both mosquitoes in the U.S. \(Fig. S1\). )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These data were augmented by surveillance data of both )] TJ ET BT 274.466 645.333 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 302.107 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( species across southern and central California)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.770 646.841 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(59)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 514.408 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Known )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ranges for both species were then established by outlining areas in which presence locations were recorded \(Fig. 1\). Such )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(information is useful for placing our results for simulated seasonal potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 413.179 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 461.958 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( into context, as the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito may not exist in some cities where seasonally suitable meteorological conditions exist, for example because eggs are )] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unable to overwinter)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 114.039 599.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(60)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 123.676 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, mapping known occurrences of )] TJ ET BT 322.011 597.714 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 349.652 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes enables comparison of the simulated )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential range of )] TJ ET BT 104.299 585.810 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 153.078 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( to the known range of )] TJ ET BT 252.265 585.810 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 313.505 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, which is also a competent vector of ZIKAV in some regions)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.887 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This is important because )] TJ ET BT 155.101 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 216.340 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(which was not simulated in this study\) has greater cold tolerance than )] TJ ET BT 525.220 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 574.000 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and therefore could facilitate seasonal ZIKAV transmission risk in more northerly U.S. cities where )] TJ ET BT 451.067 562.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 499.846 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is not found)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 552.965 563.507 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(61)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 562.602 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 525.398 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Results)] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Simulated potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 173.670 505.443 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 222.449 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( adults is zero or near-zero throughout the U.S. in January except in southern )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Florida and Texas \(Fig. 1\). By mid-July, all fifty cities are meteorologically suitable for )] TJ ET BT 394.693 493.539 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 443.472 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, with far southeastern cities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(being suitable for high abundance, and other eastern cities being suitable for moderate-to-high abundance. Cities in the western )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. are suitable for low-to-moderate abundance of )] TJ ET BT 250.061 469.729 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 298.841 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Some cities that are suitable in mid-summer are not within the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present known range for )] TJ ET BT 134.095 457.824 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 182.874 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(e.g., Denver, Albuquerque, Louisville\). As the season progresses from winter to summer )] TJ ET BT 26.250 445.920 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 445.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance begins to increase in April in the southeastern U.S. and some cities in Arizona \(Fig. 2\). By June )] TJ ET BT 26.250 434.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(nearly all cities exhibit the potential for at least low-to-moderate abundance, and most eastern cities are suitable for moderate-to-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 422.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high abundance. Conditions are most suitable in July, August and September during the warmest \(and in many cities wettest\) )] TJ ET BT 26.250 410.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(time of year. Conditions in the southern and western states remain suitable through November, and by December are largely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 398.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unsuitable again, except for southern Florida and Texas.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 -64.580 555.000 453.000 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 388.420 m 581.250 388.420 l 581.250 387.670 l 26.250 387.670 l f q 450.000 0 0 437.250 35.250 -58.580 cm /I5 Do Q q 35.250 -64.580 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 15.000 -64.580 577.500 841.580 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, as well as decreased access to safe water and sanitation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 277.702 768.983 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(54)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 287.340 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. To better understand potential human exposure to adult )] TJ ET BT 535.565 767.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(aegypti)] TJ ET BT 57.684 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, we obtained and mapped 2014 county-level data for the percentage of households living below the poverty line from )] TJ ET BT 26.250 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the U.S. Census Bureau)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 131.384 745.174 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(55)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 141.022 743.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The poverty line varies according to the size of a family and ages of its members. Thresholds do not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(vary geographically but they are updated annually for inflation. In 2014, the poverty line was \(for example\) defined by an annual )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income of $12,316 for a household with a single adult under 65 years, and $24,008 for a household with two adults and two )] TJ ET BT 26.250 707.952 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(children under 18 years.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Maximum)] TJ ET BT 68.497 688.548 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 96.138 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( geographic range data)] TJ ET BT 26.250 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(A recent compendium of observed )] TJ ET BT 177.443 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 226.222 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 247.906 669.143 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 309.146 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( presence locations collected between 1960-2014)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 523.217 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(56)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 532.855 673.031 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 535.264 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(57)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 544.901 673.031 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 547.311 670.650 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(58)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 556.948 669.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( was )] TJ ET BT 26.250 657.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(used to provide background information on the maximum known geographic range of both mosquitoes in the U.S. \(Fig. S1\). )] TJ ET BT 26.250 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(These data were augmented by surveillance data of both )] TJ ET BT 274.466 645.333 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 302.107 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( species across southern and central California)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 504.770 646.841 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(59)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 514.408 645.333 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Known )] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ranges for both species were then established by outlining areas in which presence locations were recorded \(Fig. 1\). Such )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(information is useful for placing our results for simulated seasonal potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 413.179 621.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 461.958 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( into context, as the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mosquito may not exist in some cities where seasonally suitable meteorological conditions exist, for example because eggs are )] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unable to overwinter)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 114.039 599.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(60)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 123.676 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, mapping known occurrences of )] TJ ET BT 322.011 597.714 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 349.652 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes enables comparison of the simulated )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(potential range of )] TJ ET BT 104.299 585.810 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 153.078 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( to the known range of )] TJ ET BT 252.265 585.810 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 313.505 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, which is also a competent vector of ZIKAV in some regions)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.887 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This is important because )] TJ ET BT 155.101 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 216.340 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(which was not simulated in this study\) has greater cold tolerance than )] TJ ET BT 525.220 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 574.000 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and therefore could facilitate seasonal ZIKAV transmission risk in more northerly U.S. cities where )] TJ ET BT 451.067 562.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 499.846 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is not found)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 552.965 563.507 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(61)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 562.602 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 525.398 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Results)] TJ ET BT 26.250 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Simulated potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 173.670 505.443 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 222.449 505.443 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( adults is zero or near-zero throughout the U.S. in January except in southern )] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Florida and Texas \(Fig. 1\). By mid-July, all fifty cities are meteorologically suitable for )] TJ ET BT 394.693 493.539 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 443.472 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, with far southeastern cities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 481.634 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(being suitable for high abundance, and other eastern cities being suitable for moderate-to-high abundance. Cities in the western )] TJ ET BT 26.250 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. are suitable for low-to-moderate abundance of )] TJ ET BT 250.061 469.729 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 298.841 469.729 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Some cities that are suitable in mid-summer are not within the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(present known range for )] TJ ET BT 134.095 457.824 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 182.874 457.824 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(e.g., Denver, Albuquerque, Louisville\). As the season progresses from winter to summer )] TJ ET BT 26.250 445.920 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 445.920 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance begins to increase in April in the southeastern U.S. and some cities in Arizona \(Fig. 2\). By June )] TJ ET BT 26.250 434.015 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(nearly all cities exhibit the potential for at least low-to-moderate abundance, and most eastern cities are suitable for moderate-to-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 422.110 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(high abundance. Conditions are most suitable in July, August and September during the warmest \(and in many cities wettest\) )] TJ ET BT 26.250 410.205 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(time of year. Conditions in the southern and western states remain suitable through November, and by December are largely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 398.301 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(unsuitable again, except for southern Florida and Texas.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 -64.580 555.000 453.000 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 388.420 m 581.250 388.420 l 581.250 387.670 l 26.250 387.670 l f q 450.000 0 0 437.250 35.250 -58.580 cm /I5 Do Q q 35.250 -64.580 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 450.000 0 0 437.250 35.250 -58.580 cm /I5 Do Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(6)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 519 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 520 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 277.7025 768.1817 287.3398 777.0000 ] >> endobj 520 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 521 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 522 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 131.3843 744.3722 141.0216 753.1905 ] >> endobj 522 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 523 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 524 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 523.2173 669.8484 532.8546 678.6667 ] >> endobj 524 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 525 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 526 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 535.2639 669.8484 544.9013 678.6667 ] >> endobj 526 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 527 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 528 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 547.3106 669.8484 556.9479 678.6667 ] >> endobj 528 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 529 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 530 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 504.7702 646.0389 514.4076 654.8573 ] >> endobj 530 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 531 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 532 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 114.0390 598.4199 123.6763 607.2382 ] >> endobj 532 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 533 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 534 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 26.2500 574.6104 35.8873 583.4287 ] >> endobj 534 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 535 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 536 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 552.9645 562.7057 562.6018 571.5240 ] >> endobj 536 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 537 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 538 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 -58.5802 485.2500 378.6698 ] >> endobj 538 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Fig2-2.jpg) >> endobj 539 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 600 /Height 583 /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /Filter /DCTDecode /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 97531>> stream JFIF``;CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v80), quality = 90 C     C   GX" }!1AQa"q2#BR$3br %&'()*456789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz w!1AQaq"2B #3Rbr $4%&'()*56789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz ?R( QE;EPE4RRP((PE%-b EP(EQF=QڌPEQ? 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However, in Miami the observed onset and cessation of peak summer abundance in June-July occurs more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 703.680 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rapidly than in the simulations, which have a broader peak that extends later into the summer. Interestingly, our climate data )] TJ ET BT 26.250 691.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(indicate that daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall in August-September are similar to June-July conditions, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 679.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(suggesting that very high abundance might otherwise be expected to extend into these later summer months. The difference )] TJ ET BT 26.250 667.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(between peak and off-season abundance in Miami is also more pronounced in the observations. A qualitative comparison of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 656.061 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated adult abundance to observed average weekly ovitrap accumulations in Tampa)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 407.212 657.569 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.849 656.061 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(not shown\) similarly indicates a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 644.157 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(more pronounced difference between peak and off-season abundance than is simulated. However, for Southeast cities with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 632.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(somewhat cooler winters like Jacksonville and New Orleans the seasonal cycle of simulated adult )] TJ ET BT 448.903 632.252 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 497.682 632.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 620.347 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(similar to the observed ovitrap accumulations. It is possible that the broader, lower amplitude seasonality of )] TJ ET BT 490.652 620.347 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.442 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance that is simulated in the warmer Southeast cities like Miami and Tampa occurs because the models do not account )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for interspecies competition between )] TJ ET BT 187.193 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 235.972 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 257.656 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 318.896 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, which may favor )] TJ ET BT 397.462 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 458.702 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in areas with longer warm )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and wet periods)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 95.075 586.140 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 104.713 584.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Or, it is also possible that monthly egg introductions specified in the model simulations may lead to broader )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.728 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(peaks in adult )] TJ ET BT 89.118 572.728 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 137.897 572.728 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance \(i.e., more eggs may be available in the models compared to reality\). In Phoenix the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.823 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(observed peak abundance in August, during the monsoon season, is resolved by the simulations, as is the substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 548.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(difference between peak and off-season abundance \(off-season abundance is basically zero in both the observations and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 537.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations\). An early-season peak in the simulations during April-May, which is not observed, is due to the small amount of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 525.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(water maintained in the simulated containers during dry periods to accommodate the potential for manual filling of containers. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 513.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reality manually filled containers may be relatively uncommon in Phoenix, though allowing for a modest amount of human-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 501.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mediated water availability in simulations during the dry season can be useful for determining when conditions are warm enough )] TJ ET BT 26.250 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for )] TJ ET BT 40.339 489.395 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 89.118 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( development and survival. )] TJ ET BT 207.795 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Additionally, the models may underestimate the effects of low humidity \(i.e., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 477.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(desiccation\) during the dry season on adult survival, which may be particularly important in arid environments)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 496.590 478.997 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(62)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.227 477.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Vector control )] TJ ET BT 26.250 465.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(activities likely also lead to differences between observed and simulated )] TJ ET BT 339.469 465.585 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 388.248 465.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations in both cities \(the simulations )] TJ ET BT 26.250 453.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(do not account for mosquito control\). Given the uncertainty in the observations and the limitations of the models, the objective of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 441.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the comparison in Fig. 3 is to evaluate whether the models can simulate the general seasonal cycle including higher )] TJ ET BT 26.250 429.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundances during observed peak months, and lower abundances during observed off-peak months, for these two cities that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 417.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(represent different climatic settings; we conclude that the model simulations meet this basic objective.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 -130.415 555.000 538.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 408.085 m 581.250 408.085 l 581.250 407.335 l 26.250 407.335 l f q 450.000 0 0 522.750 35.250 -124.415 cm /I6 Do Q q 35.250 -130.415 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 15.000 -130.415 577.500 907.415 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 744.514 555.000 32.486 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 744.514 m 581.250 744.514 l 581.250 745.264 l 26.250 745.264 l f q 35.250 755.764 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 2.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The 2006-2015 ensemble mean monthly average )] TJ ET BT 279.117 766.011 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 327.896 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 727.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Model results demonstrated a similar seasonal cycle compared to the observed )] TJ ET BT 370.883 727.490 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 419.662 727.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance at our two validation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 715.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sites \(Fig. 3\). However, in Miami the observed onset and cessation of peak summer abundance in June-July occurs more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 703.680 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rapidly than in the simulations, which have a broader peak that extends later into the summer. Interestingly, our climate data )] TJ ET BT 26.250 691.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(indicate that daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall in August-September are similar to June-July conditions, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 679.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(suggesting that very high abundance might otherwise be expected to extend into these later summer months. The difference )] TJ ET BT 26.250 667.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(between peak and off-season abundance in Miami is also more pronounced in the observations. A qualitative comparison of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 656.061 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated adult abundance to observed average weekly ovitrap accumulations in Tampa)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 407.212 657.569 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.849 656.061 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(not shown\) similarly indicates a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 644.157 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(more pronounced difference between peak and off-season abundance than is simulated. However, for Southeast cities with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 632.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(somewhat cooler winters like Jacksonville and New Orleans the seasonal cycle of simulated adult )] TJ ET BT 448.903 632.252 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 497.682 632.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 620.347 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(similar to the observed ovitrap accumulations. It is possible that the broader, lower amplitude seasonality of )] TJ ET BT 490.652 620.347 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.442 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance that is simulated in the warmer Southeast cities like Miami and Tampa occurs because the models do not account )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for interspecies competition between )] TJ ET BT 187.193 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 235.972 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 257.656 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 318.896 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, which may favor )] TJ ET BT 397.462 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 458.702 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in areas with longer warm )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and wet periods)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 95.075 586.140 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 104.713 584.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Or, it is also possible that monthly egg introductions specified in the model simulations may lead to broader )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.728 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(peaks in adult )] TJ ET BT 89.118 572.728 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 137.897 572.728 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance \(i.e., more eggs may be available in the models compared to reality\). In Phoenix the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.823 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(observed peak abundance in August, during the monsoon season, is resolved by the simulations, as is the substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 548.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(difference between peak and off-season abundance \(off-season abundance is basically zero in both the observations and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 537.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations\). An early-season peak in the simulations during April-May, which is not observed, is due to the small amount of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 525.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(water maintained in the simulated containers during dry periods to accommodate the potential for manual filling of containers. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 513.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reality manually filled containers may be relatively uncommon in Phoenix, though allowing for a modest amount of human-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 501.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mediated water availability in simulations during the dry season can be useful for determining when conditions are warm enough )] TJ ET BT 26.250 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for )] TJ ET BT 40.339 489.395 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 89.118 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( development and survival. )] TJ ET BT 207.795 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Additionally, the models may underestimate the effects of low humidity \(i.e., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 477.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(desiccation\) during the dry season on adult survival, which may be particularly important in arid environments)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 496.590 478.997 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(62)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.227 477.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Vector control )] TJ ET BT 26.250 465.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(activities likely also lead to differences between observed and simulated )] TJ ET BT 339.469 465.585 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 388.248 465.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations in both cities \(the simulations )] TJ ET BT 26.250 453.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(do not account for mosquito control\). Given the uncertainty in the observations and the limitations of the models, the objective of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 441.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the comparison in Fig. 3 is to evaluate whether the models can simulate the general seasonal cycle including higher )] TJ ET BT 26.250 429.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundances during observed peak months, and lower abundances during observed off-peak months, for these two cities that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 417.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(represent different climatic settings; we conclude that the model simulations meet this basic objective.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 -130.415 555.000 538.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 408.085 m 581.250 408.085 l 581.250 407.335 l 26.250 407.335 l f q 450.000 0 0 522.750 35.250 -124.415 cm /I6 Do Q q 35.250 -130.415 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 15.000 -130.415 577.500 907.415 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 744.514 555.000 32.486 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 744.514 m 581.250 744.514 l 581.250 745.264 l 26.250 745.264 l f q 35.250 755.764 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 2.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The 2006-2015 ensemble mean monthly average )] TJ ET BT 279.117 766.011 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 327.896 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 727.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Model results demonstrated a similar seasonal cycle compared to the observed )] TJ ET BT 370.883 727.490 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 419.662 727.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance at our two validation )] TJ ET BT 26.250 715.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sites \(Fig. 3\). However, in Miami the observed onset and cessation of peak summer abundance in June-July occurs more )] TJ ET BT 26.250 703.680 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rapidly than in the simulations, which have a broader peak that extends later into the summer. Interestingly, our climate data )] TJ ET BT 26.250 691.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(indicate that daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall in August-September are similar to June-July conditions, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 679.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(suggesting that very high abundance might otherwise be expected to extend into these later summer months. The difference )] TJ ET BT 26.250 667.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(between peak and off-season abundance in Miami is also more pronounced in the observations. A qualitative comparison of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 656.061 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated adult abundance to observed average weekly ovitrap accumulations in Tampa)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 407.212 657.569 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(43)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.849 656.061 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( \(not shown\) similarly indicates a )] TJ ET BT 26.250 644.157 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(more pronounced difference between peak and off-season abundance than is simulated. However, for Southeast cities with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 632.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(somewhat cooler winters like Jacksonville and New Orleans the seasonal cycle of simulated adult )] TJ ET BT 448.903 632.252 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 497.682 632.252 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance is )] TJ ET BT 26.250 620.347 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(similar to the observed ovitrap accumulations. It is possible that the broader, lower amplitude seasonality of )] TJ ET BT 490.652 620.347 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 608.442 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance that is simulated in the warmer Southeast cities like Miami and Tampa occurs because the models do not account )] TJ ET BT 26.250 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for interspecies competition between )] TJ ET BT 187.193 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 235.972 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 257.656 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 318.896 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, which may favor )] TJ ET BT 397.462 596.538 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 458.702 596.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in areas with longer warm )] TJ ET BT 26.250 584.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and wet periods)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 95.075 586.140 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 104.713 584.633 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Or, it is also possible that monthly egg introductions specified in the model simulations may lead to broader )] TJ ET BT 26.250 572.728 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(peaks in adult )] TJ ET BT 89.118 572.728 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 137.897 572.728 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance \(i.e., more eggs may be available in the models compared to reality\). In Phoenix the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 560.823 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(observed peak abundance in August, during the monsoon season, is resolved by the simulations, as is the substantial )] TJ ET BT 26.250 548.919 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(difference between peak and off-season abundance \(off-season abundance is basically zero in both the observations and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 537.014 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations\). An early-season peak in the simulations during April-May, which is not observed, is due to the small amount of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 525.109 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(water maintained in the simulated containers during dry periods to accommodate the potential for manual filling of containers. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 513.204 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(reality manually filled containers may be relatively uncommon in Phoenix, though allowing for a modest amount of human-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 501.300 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(mediated water availability in simulations during the dry season can be useful for determining when conditions are warm enough )] TJ ET BT 26.250 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(for )] TJ ET BT 40.339 489.395 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 89.118 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( development and survival. )] TJ ET BT 207.795 489.395 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Additionally, the models may underestimate the effects of low humidity \(i.e., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 477.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(desiccation\) during the dry season on adult survival, which may be particularly important in arid environments)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 496.590 478.997 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(62)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 506.227 477.490 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Vector control )] TJ ET BT 26.250 465.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(activities likely also lead to differences between observed and simulated )] TJ ET BT 339.469 465.585 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 388.248 465.585 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations in both cities \(the simulations )] TJ ET BT 26.250 453.681 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(do not account for mosquito control\). Given the uncertainty in the observations and the limitations of the models, the objective of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 441.776 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the comparison in Fig. 3 is to evaluate whether the models can simulate the general seasonal cycle including higher )] TJ ET BT 26.250 429.871 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundances during observed peak months, and lower abundances during observed off-peak months, for these two cities that )] TJ ET BT 26.250 417.966 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(represent different climatic settings; we conclude that the model simulations meet this basic objective.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 -130.415 555.000 538.500 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 408.085 m 581.250 408.085 l 581.250 407.335 l 26.250 407.335 l f q 450.000 0 0 522.750 35.250 -124.415 cm /I6 Do Q q 35.250 -130.415 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 450.000 0 0 522.750 35.250 -124.415 cm /I6 Do Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(7)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 582 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 583 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 407.2117 656.7669 416.8491 665.5852 ] >> endobj 583 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 584 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 585 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 95.0752 585.3384 104.7126 594.1567 ] >> endobj 585 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 586 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 587 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 496.5900 478.1957 506.2273 487.0140 ] >> endobj 587 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 588 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 589 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 -124.4145 485.2500 398.3355 ] >> endobj 589 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Fig3-1.jpg) >> endobj 590 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 600 /Height 697 /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /Filter /DCTDecode /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 95539>> stream JFIF``;CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v80), quality = 90 C     C   X" }!1AQa"q2#BR$3br %&'()*456789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz w!1AQaq"2B #3Rbr $4%&'()*56789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz ?R ( ( ( J((((RPE-襠J\RR Z):PJZJ)h▊(PGQ@'PG~t`EPREQE (f.(1F(()h (qEPqKEQ4P֊1EQIڀ)h}hGZ(PEPE|jƿ~QM:; \KuZ9'c^I~"kX5 'Xֵ/AMLƒHp [2FA( iOZ|CмK; xC.!9" %T.aRU@;z /뚟潵m !|(PAEs`g $z_xg $z('6I?xg $z('.I?[~& {N򡲧s4ъi4w OGi4>i4j#-Ki-f1VltšL@ W=LKL@g $z>i4-^"ִK4M=aeA&##8W>4g $z>4Eso?IMEx4|Ip57Zh5}?i'#?i'#AEsn?In?It=[>"Ѵ]9p ~⭮r1aI?: Zi4AVMG~{i!X̑ ,@l4xH_ ra{"–~63 9\zmhJ NKq{)A<8:fxjuo?Jҁ_w_TiԿgSJf"9o m#һ MCNW<u^ۢNxݏ5WjM&{.s*~Hv exX~h\ Y_S3]| y+v sObq=MV K~mpf+x:b\ӂ~]?kLx\k-?} ~AIfF?*|4u(%m:j1J9m/ݩ| ,%̻G~5?ाHu OMѤ饉O"-iTe+z4s:p+~IBd]-xOxkt:߅31EYd{pӸsǚxu=6GVeW]a dBGoZ#RWLpKd ({ÿ |84, Js䳻K1$?FkW?5j? n)Sr-<gHWĖG)(LjONvҀ?UIgQ[FJk՜Ÿ-Y>i~eaKk)JMfN@F[G5i6%Ok8Ҵ DuꘙJӭ~q_9xGOYcCaWT-}^aKP:zt(ɾ'fˋȒ4e9[;sg|?^*<#]9 KN@K}g@6pHd|_7u|:~Utşh'zlKL GWoi@36Fq'5jUk_ hG^:P?D}Eo}">^Q" ? 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Results are expressed as a fraction of the maximum monthly )] TJ ET BT 35.250 738.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance for each dataset in order to facilitate comparison \(otherwise abundance measures will vary widely due to how )] TJ ET BT 35.250 724.802 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated versus observed mosquitoes are quantified and the areal extents they represent\).)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 686.281 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The estimated monthly average number of persons arriving by air from countries on the CDC Zika virus travel advisory which )] TJ ET BT 26.250 674.376 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(provides a proxy for the potential for virus introduction is greatest in large cities with major international airports \(Fig. 1\). Cities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 662.472 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(having both high potential )] TJ ET BT 140.072 662.472 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 188.851 662.472 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance and large volumes of air passengers include Miami, Houston and Orlando. It )] TJ ET BT 26.250 650.567 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is also noteworthy that nearly five times as many persons cross the U.S.-Mexico border per month than arrive by air in all fifty )] TJ ET BT 26.250 638.662 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cities combined.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 619.257 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Travel patterns fluctuate seasonally \(Fig. 4\). Importantly, July and August are the two months with the highest estimated number )] TJ ET BT 26.250 607.353 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of passengers arriving by air from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory. These months fall within the season of highest )] TJ ET BT 26.250 595.448 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(meteorological suitability for )] TJ ET BT 149.246 595.448 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 198.025 595.448 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( across the fifty cities. These months also have comparatively high traffic across the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 583.543 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S.-Mexico border. 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Results are expressed as a fraction of the maximum monthly )] TJ ET BT 35.250 738.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance for each dataset in order to facilitate comparison \(otherwise abundance measures will vary widely due to how )] TJ ET BT 35.250 724.802 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated versus observed mosquitoes are quantified and the areal extents they represent\).)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 686.281 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The estimated monthly average number of persons arriving by air from countries on the CDC Zika virus travel advisory which )] TJ ET BT 26.250 674.376 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(provides a proxy for the potential for virus introduction is greatest in large cities with major international airports \(Fig. 1\). Cities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 662.472 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(having both high potential )] TJ ET BT 140.072 662.472 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 188.851 662.472 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance and large volumes of air passengers include Miami, Houston and Orlando. It )] TJ ET BT 26.250 650.567 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is also noteworthy that nearly five times as many persons cross the U.S.-Mexico border per month than arrive by air in all fifty )] TJ ET BT 26.250 638.662 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cities combined.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 619.257 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Travel patterns fluctuate seasonally \(Fig. 4\). Importantly, July and August are the two months with the highest estimated number )] TJ ET BT 26.250 607.353 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of passengers arriving by air from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory. These months fall within the season of highest )] TJ ET BT 26.250 595.448 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(meteorological suitability for )] TJ ET BT 149.246 595.448 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 198.025 595.448 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( across the fifty cities. These months also have comparatively high traffic across the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 583.543 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S.-Mexico border. The holiday months of December and January also have relatively high estimated numbers of persons )] TJ ET BT 26.250 571.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(arriving both by air and across the U.S.-Mexico border; these are months having no-to-low )] TJ ET BT 417.488 571.638 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 466.267 571.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 559.734 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(most cities, although there may be low-to-moderate potential abundance in cities like Brownsville, Miami and Orlando. Although )] TJ ET BT 26.250 547.829 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rare in winter, one case of locally-acquired DENV was reported in January 2011 in Miami-Dade county)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 466.784 549.336 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.422 547.829 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, indicating that in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 535.924 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(some years off-season )] TJ ET BT 127.582 535.924 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 155.223 535.924 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations may be abundant enough in these cities to enable virus transmission.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 52.793 555.000 473.250 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 526.043 m 581.250 526.043 l 581.250 525.293 l 26.250 525.293 l f q 450.000 0 0 457.500 35.250 58.793 cm /I7 Do Q q 35.250 52.793 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 15.000 52.793 577.500 724.207 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 703.305 555.000 73.695 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 703.305 m 581.250 703.305 l 581.250 704.055 l 26.250 704.055 l f q 35.250 714.555 537.000 62.445 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 3.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( 2006-2015 average simulated monthly )] TJ ET BT 234.677 766.011 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 283.456 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance versus average observed abundance for )] TJ ET BT 35.250 752.275 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Miami \(2006-2008; top\) and Phoenix \(2006-2015; bottom\). Results are expressed as a fraction of the maximum monthly )] TJ ET BT 35.250 738.538 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance for each dataset in order to facilitate comparison \(otherwise abundance measures will vary widely due to how )] TJ ET BT 35.250 724.802 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated versus observed mosquitoes are quantified and the areal extents they represent\).)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 686.281 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The estimated monthly average number of persons arriving by air from countries on the CDC Zika virus travel advisory which )] TJ ET BT 26.250 674.376 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(provides a proxy for the potential for virus introduction is greatest in large cities with major international airports \(Fig. 1\). Cities )] TJ ET BT 26.250 662.472 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(having both high potential )] TJ ET BT 140.072 662.472 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 188.851 662.472 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance and large volumes of air passengers include Miami, Houston and Orlando. It )] TJ ET BT 26.250 650.567 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is also noteworthy that nearly five times as many persons cross the U.S.-Mexico border per month than arrive by air in all fifty )] TJ ET BT 26.250 638.662 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cities combined.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 619.257 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Travel patterns fluctuate seasonally \(Fig. 4\). Importantly, July and August are the two months with the highest estimated number )] TJ ET BT 26.250 607.353 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of passengers arriving by air from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory. These months fall within the season of highest )] TJ ET BT 26.250 595.448 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(meteorological suitability for )] TJ ET BT 149.246 595.448 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 198.025 595.448 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( across the fifty cities. These months also have comparatively high traffic across the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 583.543 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S.-Mexico border. The holiday months of December and January also have relatively high estimated numbers of persons )] TJ ET BT 26.250 571.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(arriving both by air and across the U.S.-Mexico border; these are months having no-to-low )] TJ ET BT 417.488 571.638 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 466.267 571.638 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 559.734 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(most cities, although there may be low-to-moderate potential abundance in cities like Brownsville, Miami and Orlando. Although )] TJ ET BT 26.250 547.829 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(rare in winter, one case of locally-acquired DENV was reported in January 2011 in Miami-Dade county)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 466.784 549.336 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(42)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 476.422 547.829 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, indicating that in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 535.924 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(some years off-season )] TJ ET BT 127.582 535.924 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 155.223 535.924 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations may be abundant enough in these cities to enable virus transmission.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 52.793 555.000 473.250 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 526.043 m 581.250 526.043 l 581.250 525.293 l 26.250 525.293 l f q 450.000 0 0 457.500 35.250 58.793 cm /I7 Do Q q 35.250 52.793 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 450.000 0 0 457.500 35.250 58.793 cm /I7 Do Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(8)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 609 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 610 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 466.7842 548.5344 476.4216 557.3527 ] >> endobj 610 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 611 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 612 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 58.7932 485.2500 516.2932 ] >> endobj 612 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Fig4-1.jpg) >> endobj 613 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 600 /Height 610 /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /Filter /DCTDecode /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 99474>> stream JFIF``;CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v80), quality = 90 C     C   bX" }!1AQa"q2#BR$3br %&'()*456789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz w!1AQaq"2B #3Rbr $4%&'()*56789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz ?L̹;xURGו~:H隵]x9.E*<2[_ xcP4KVShG dž?UX4M#ޓO?H+DLFڈ\Iz@ 6A[ Om_^{a2:ׇ<#oi޾s4 d++LXBؒ&|5{u D5-R7AoBW f@;IH=G 6A[ O͟ ӏ &fτN8 hlMD*m_G$?%?ƸfτN|/?>9 hG 6Ak/ O7 &fτN|/?&-e)4MZSklMD*7 &;I YJh>9 hlMD*m_G$?%?ƸfτN|/?>9 hG 6Ak/ O7 &fτN|/?&-c)4h?>9 i?>8 hG' 6A[O? &fτN8 hlOD*m?I 6A[O? &fτN8 hG'MVklOD*? &;I Bh>8 hlOD*m?K 6A[O? &fτN8 hlOD*m?G$?l!?ƸofτN8 hG'MVklOD*? &;I Bh>8 i>8 hG 6Ak/ O7 &fτN|/?&-e)4MZSklMD*7 &;I YJh>9 hlMD*m_G$?%?ƸfτN|/?>9 hG 6Ak/ O7 &fτN|/?&-e)4MZSklMD*7 &;I YJh>9 hlMD*m_G$?%?ƸfτN|/?>9 hG 6Ak/ O1qC߳ge?<.ҡhG 6Ak/ OT:d>Z? &;I YJh?8 hjOD*m_A6Ak/ O#? &fM1+KmB#%W1p>W~<-|]}>Kmi"ii(np8(|)Ik֫~?CO_Os^@yg߀v_tm>\Դ)ky {]2X=ww)uqHʋ]1ui05Mv/=YXgGUQΏ@OG}czlZI~}IY,aeG HU]x0%r >,kM]%~MU5۳}O!ei(#$FtX: t _~:xLxku|Imgu[[>G(%Ǵm?{8}S[I2pX,,-WO=:ʤep t CNc>7|s}:RmkZڞwV_Cb1DH 28$W_OR\k:樰|TMN ~cy@Q?Uc;R3*+? 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ZtC_5u,?'O:?@_Y"NtWֿ|E?f:!P:ou,'O:3^A YtCE/@| /OO m0ŭj /c P(\l?=y4PkڔZ(KEQEQEQEQEQEQފ((EPGz((-PEPEPEPEPEPEPEPEPEPEPEPEPQEQ@-PQEQ@-PQEQ@-PQEQ@-PQE endstream endobj 614 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 615 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 466.7842 548.5344 476.4216 557.3527 ] >> endobj 615 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 616 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 617 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 58.7932 485.2500 516.2932 ] >> endobj 617 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Fig4-1.jpg) >> endobj 618 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 619 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 466.7842 548.5344 476.4216 557.3527 ] >> endobj 619 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 620 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 621 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 58.7932 485.2500 516.2932 ] >> endobj 621 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Fig4-1.jpg) >> endobj 622 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 3 0 R /Annots [ 624 0 R 626 0 R 628 0 R 631 0 R 633 0 R 635 0 R 637 0 R 639 0 R 641 0 R 643 0 R 645 0 R 647 0 R 649 0 R 651 0 R 653 0 R 655 0 R 657 0 R 659 0 R 661 0 R 663 0 R 665 0 R ] /Contents 623 0 R >> endobj 623 0 obj << /Length 18510 >> stream q 15.000 29.294 577.500 747.706 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 730.777 555.000 46.223 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 730.777 m 581.250 730.777 l 581.250 731.527 l 26.250 731.527 l f q 35.250 742.027 537.000 34.973 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 4.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( 2014 monthly number of persons arriving by air from Latin American countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory \(top\), )] TJ ET BT 35.250 752.275 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and by land from Mexico \(bottom\). Sources for data can be found in the text.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 713.754 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(High poverty rates, an indicator of potential vector-human contact, are particularly prevalent in the southern U.S. where )] TJ ET BT 26.250 701.849 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(seasonal abundance of )] TJ ET BT 129.775 701.849 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 178.555 701.849 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is simulated to be highest \(Fig. 5\). Many of the poorest counties across the geographic area )] TJ ET BT 26.250 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(under study are rural and unlikely to be inhabited by )] TJ ET BT 252.781 689.944 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 301.561 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( given its proclivity for urban areas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 449.488 691.451 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(55)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 459.125 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 464.546 689.944 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 525.786 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, however, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 678.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is present across the rural South \(Fig. S1\) and may be a competent vector of Zika virus)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 401.235 679.547 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 410.872 678.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The poorest urban areas include the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 666.135 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(counties that encompass Laredo, TX and Brownsville, TX, where poverty rates are >30%, as well as Yuma, AZ and Miami, FL )] TJ ET BT 26.250 654.230 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(>20%\). A number of other southern cities in this study are situated within counties having poverty rates > 15%.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 248.113 555.000 396.236 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 644.349 m 581.250 644.349 l 581.250 643.599 l 26.250 643.599 l f 26.250 248.113 m 581.250 248.113 l 581.250 248.863 l 26.250 248.863 l f q 450.000 0 0 348.000 35.250 286.599 cm /I8 Do Q q 35.250 259.363 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 269.610 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 5.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 269.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( 2014 percentage of households below the poverty line by U.S. county. Source of data can be found in text.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 213.891 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Discussion)] TJ ET BT 26.250 193.937 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Numerous studies have produced global maps of general climatic suitability for )] TJ ET BT 368.173 193.937 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.952 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(56)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 426.589 197.825 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.999 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(63)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 438.636 197.825 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 441.045 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(64)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 450.683 193.937 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Our results for peak warm )] TJ ET BT 26.250 182.032 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(season )] TJ ET BT 60.395 182.032 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 109.174 182.032 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance over the U.S. compare reasonably with the maps published in these previous studies. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Fewer studies have explored seasonal suitability for )] TJ ET BT 252.216 170.127 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 300.995 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Brady et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 355.732 171.635 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(60)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 365.369 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mapped weekly temperature-based suitability for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 158.223 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 158.223 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 96.713 158.223 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 157.953 158.223 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( oviposition globally \(they also examined weekly temperature suitability for introduction and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 146.318 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(persistence of DENV transmission for both mosquitoes\). Here, we employ temperature, precipitation and humidity fields to drive )] TJ ET BT 26.250 134.413 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(two process-based life cycle models and simulate the daily potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 383.373 134.413 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 432.152 134.413 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for the most recent ten years at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 122.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fifty cities across the U.S. While these simulations are subject to limitations as discussed below, they are an important step )] TJ ET BT 26.250 110.604 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(toward improved understanding of the spatial and seasonal variability of )] TJ ET BT 338.396 110.604 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 387.175 110.604 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in the U.S. and the periods of higher risk of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 98.699 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ZIKAV introduction.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 79.294 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We find that meteorological conditions are largely unsuitable for )] TJ ET BT 303.160 79.294 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 351.939 79.294 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( over the U.S. during winter months \(December-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 67.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(March\), except in southern portions of Florida and Texas that can sustain low-to-moderate potential mosquito abundance )] TJ ET BT 26.250 55.485 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(compared to summer \(Fig. 2\). Meteorological conditions are suitable for )] TJ ET BT 337.275 55.485 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 386.054 55.485 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( across all fifty cities during peak summer )] TJ ET BT 26.250 43.580 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(months \(July-September\), though the mosquito has not been observed in all cities. Highest potential mosquito abundances is )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 29.294 577.500 747.706 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 730.777 555.000 46.223 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 730.777 m 581.250 730.777 l 581.250 731.527 l 26.250 731.527 l f q 35.250 742.027 537.000 34.973 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 4.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( 2014 monthly number of persons arriving by air from Latin American countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory \(top\), )] TJ ET BT 35.250 752.275 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and by land from Mexico \(bottom\). Sources for data can be found in the text.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 713.754 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(High poverty rates, an indicator of potential vector-human contact, are particularly prevalent in the southern U.S. where )] TJ ET BT 26.250 701.849 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(seasonal abundance of )] TJ ET BT 129.775 701.849 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 178.555 701.849 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is simulated to be highest \(Fig. 5\). Many of the poorest counties across the geographic area )] TJ ET BT 26.250 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(under study are rural and unlikely to be inhabited by )] TJ ET BT 252.781 689.944 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 301.561 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( given its proclivity for urban areas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 449.488 691.451 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(55)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 459.125 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 464.546 689.944 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 525.786 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, however, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 678.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is present across the rural South \(Fig. S1\) and may be a competent vector of Zika virus)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 401.235 679.547 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 410.872 678.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The poorest urban areas include the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 666.135 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(counties that encompass Laredo, TX and Brownsville, TX, where poverty rates are >30%, as well as Yuma, AZ and Miami, FL )] TJ ET BT 26.250 654.230 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(>20%\). A number of other southern cities in this study are situated within counties having poverty rates > 15%.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 248.113 555.000 396.236 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 644.349 m 581.250 644.349 l 581.250 643.599 l 26.250 643.599 l f 26.250 248.113 m 581.250 248.113 l 581.250 248.863 l 26.250 248.863 l f q 450.000 0 0 348.000 35.250 286.599 cm /I8 Do Q q 35.250 259.363 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 269.610 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 5.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 269.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( 2014 percentage of households below the poverty line by U.S. county. Source of data can be found in text.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 213.891 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Discussion)] TJ ET BT 26.250 193.937 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Numerous studies have produced global maps of general climatic suitability for )] TJ ET BT 368.173 193.937 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.952 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(56)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 426.589 197.825 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.999 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(63)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 438.636 197.825 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 441.045 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(64)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 450.683 193.937 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Our results for peak warm )] TJ ET BT 26.250 182.032 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(season )] TJ ET BT 60.395 182.032 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 109.174 182.032 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance over the U.S. compare reasonably with the maps published in these previous studies. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Fewer studies have explored seasonal suitability for )] TJ ET BT 252.216 170.127 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 300.995 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Brady et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 355.732 171.635 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(60)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 365.369 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mapped weekly temperature-based suitability for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 158.223 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 158.223 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 96.713 158.223 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 157.953 158.223 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( oviposition globally \(they also examined weekly temperature suitability for introduction and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 146.318 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(persistence of DENV transmission for both mosquitoes\). Here, we employ temperature, precipitation and humidity fields to drive )] TJ ET BT 26.250 134.413 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(two process-based life cycle models and simulate the daily potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 383.373 134.413 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 432.152 134.413 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for the most recent ten years at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 122.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fifty cities across the U.S. While these simulations are subject to limitations as discussed below, they are an important step )] TJ ET BT 26.250 110.604 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(toward improved understanding of the spatial and seasonal variability of )] TJ ET BT 338.396 110.604 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 387.175 110.604 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in the U.S. and the periods of higher risk of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 98.699 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ZIKAV introduction.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 79.294 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We find that meteorological conditions are largely unsuitable for )] TJ ET BT 303.160 79.294 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 351.939 79.294 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( over the U.S. during winter months \(December-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 67.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(March\), except in southern portions of Florida and Texas that can sustain low-to-moderate potential mosquito abundance )] TJ ET BT 26.250 55.485 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(compared to summer \(Fig. 2\). Meteorological conditions are suitable for )] TJ ET BT 337.275 55.485 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 386.054 55.485 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( across all fifty cities during peak summer )] TJ ET BT 26.250 43.580 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(months \(July-September\), though the mosquito has not been observed in all cities. Highest potential mosquito abundances is )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 29.294 577.500 747.706 re W n 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 730.777 555.000 46.223 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 730.777 m 581.250 730.777 l 581.250 731.527 l 26.250 731.527 l f q 35.250 742.027 537.000 34.973 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 766.011 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 4.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 766.011 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( 2014 monthly number of persons arriving by air from Latin American countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory \(top\), )] TJ ET BT 35.250 752.275 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and by land from Mexico \(bottom\). Sources for data can be found in the text.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 713.754 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(High poverty rates, an indicator of potential vector-human contact, are particularly prevalent in the southern U.S. where )] TJ ET BT 26.250 701.849 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(seasonal abundance of )] TJ ET BT 129.775 701.849 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 178.555 701.849 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( is simulated to be highest \(Fig. 5\). Many of the poorest counties across the geographic area )] TJ ET BT 26.250 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(under study are rural and unlikely to be inhabited by )] TJ ET BT 252.781 689.944 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 301.561 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( given its proclivity for urban areas)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 449.488 691.451 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(55)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 459.125 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. )] TJ ET BT 464.546 689.944 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 525.786 689.944 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, however, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 678.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is present across the rural South \(Fig. S1\) and may be a competent vector of Zika virus)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 401.235 679.547 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(14)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 410.872 678.039 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The poorest urban areas include the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 666.135 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(counties that encompass Laredo, TX and Brownsville, TX, where poverty rates are >30%, as well as Yuma, AZ and Miami, FL )] TJ ET BT 26.250 654.230 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(\(>20%\). A number of other southern cities in this study are situated within counties having poverty rates > 15%.)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 248.113 555.000 396.236 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 644.349 m 581.250 644.349 l 581.250 643.599 l 26.250 643.599 l f 26.250 248.113 m 581.250 248.113 l 581.250 248.863 l 26.250 248.863 l f q 450.000 0 0 348.000 35.250 286.599 cm /I8 Do Q q 35.250 259.363 537.000 21.236 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 35.250 269.610 Td /F4 9.8 Tf [(Fig. 5.)] TJ ET BT 63.427 269.610 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( 2014 percentage of households below the poverty line by U.S. county. Source of data can be found in text.)] TJ ET Q BT 26.250 213.891 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Discussion)] TJ ET BT 26.250 193.937 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Numerous studies have produced global maps of general climatic suitability for )] TJ ET BT 368.173 193.937 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 416.952 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(56)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 426.589 197.825 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 428.999 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(63)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 438.636 197.825 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 441.045 195.444 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(64)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 450.683 193.937 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Our results for peak warm )] TJ ET BT 26.250 182.032 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(season )] TJ ET BT 60.395 182.032 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 109.174 182.032 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( potential abundance over the U.S. compare reasonably with the maps published in these previous studies. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Fewer studies have explored seasonal suitability for )] TJ ET BT 252.216 170.127 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 300.995 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Brady et al.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 355.732 171.635 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(60)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 365.369 170.127 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mapped weekly temperature-based suitability for )] TJ ET BT 26.250 158.223 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 158.223 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and )] TJ ET BT 96.713 158.223 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 157.953 158.223 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( oviposition globally \(they also examined weekly temperature suitability for introduction and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 146.318 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(persistence of DENV transmission for both mosquitoes\). Here, we employ temperature, precipitation and humidity fields to drive )] TJ ET BT 26.250 134.413 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(two process-based life cycle models and simulate the daily potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 383.373 134.413 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 432.152 134.413 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( for the most recent ten years at )] TJ ET BT 26.250 122.508 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fifty cities across the U.S. While these simulations are subject to limitations as discussed below, they are an important step )] TJ ET BT 26.250 110.604 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(toward improved understanding of the spatial and seasonal variability of )] TJ ET BT 338.396 110.604 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 387.175 110.604 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in the U.S. and the periods of higher risk of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 98.699 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(ZIKAV introduction.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 79.294 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(We find that meteorological conditions are largely unsuitable for )] TJ ET BT 303.160 79.294 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 351.939 79.294 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( over the U.S. during winter months \(December-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 67.389 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(March\), except in southern portions of Florida and Texas that can sustain low-to-moderate potential mosquito abundance )] TJ ET BT 26.250 55.485 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(compared to summer \(Fig. 2\). Meteorological conditions are suitable for )] TJ ET BT 337.275 55.485 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 386.054 55.485 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( across all fifty cities during peak summer )] TJ ET BT 26.250 43.580 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(months \(July-September\), though the mosquito has not been observed in all cities. Highest potential mosquito abundances is )] TJ ET Q q 450.000 0 0 348.000 35.250 286.599 cm /I8 Do Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(9)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 624 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 625 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 449.4878 690.6497 459.1251 699.4680 ] >> endobj 625 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 626 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 627 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 401.2350 678.7449 410.8723 687.5632 ] >> endobj 627 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 628 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 629 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 286.5990 485.2500 634.5990 ] >> endobj 629 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/Fig5-1.jpg) >> endobj 630 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 600 /Height 464 /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /Filter /DCTDecode /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 75451>> stream JFIF``;CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v80), quality = 90 C     C   X" }!1AQa"q2#BR$3br %&'()*456789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz w!1AQaq"2B #3Rbr $4%&'()*56789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz ?Ryō>UG[ho-ijn0"2^'G/<7*o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o[/&?o+W-"W6:6ep$k{Xp5ꟍp?Lf[/;GEHORO_ eA*F(=(=( 7ZIHHߞqӧ_ά Ȭ V }U;Ļw>Xy,0~=OƹeUOhjרY|ˌ:VC$PpGr*Da/; ;r?ǽfh?$ӦY'V%~C'TK4flrӬЈS_O<\V8(ߡ_"^ug̺F@?|z*.Kiescc1[vf+l*JTI=^sϒ E9P#sym''|C?h:~]H6+ UT>[ Kv^^O̭hث1=YRƬR77sWɟ2w~lșc-]g Q(#Ÿf>]\ğ7oT~t~t~t~tĢ y$=Kt`9Wm?x55͍djZC+ȋA,?NN=;0妛 YJ=+q/{d=iis~N(o_֠dѯT=G2_UVWYFSnZv ;Vt*=U)|?qjV˲Uum%}<~B cx꿇-40{r jI쿕Vayyma,.6Qktr&4gd1by$K(,Qʞ_α/,%#~ *#VMt(P%TQt 5kG>NXjt{lɁbg[vMc w R8~ζjxXSW*ziO D0+[$v].,B4j'W6+z[v]|]51^G>7ff;@ {ȱ;FI_56{8`8zsԚu*(8ҋ+WաG梒oV_SUZdG\ !?_V_ ǁo%[cڪryȮXӧ =*r,BJͲž.='xiOu,8f$gҢ I-{$UЮĘ*z?=xoVf9|Sn4g+x7U:v,p]!FA'p<[xͦ9 Fr*q*Su4՝ERSS<[kĚ5[bx/,Ux5h@0u8Ez/oq>{cWWZnk^+hkHá*8yؚXjnw=\%l^%*[|"RH"EʰL%dۜq+诈5A r 5y_~|.uup5l_pmMxgzeo66 [BCs_!Y5_Eӱ8mJ.)6iInֲ#Wz?ڷRyZݴ흆8S>'='j*'N}T261}1B# _TQ*/O;_k;m%э/4Ndn08|_F|=\:!g6 qC%ݖ/Wz-ټ%vuvd󞟍nW26¬99kWkfǜ-׮?ʸqKT}*sp\~uZʮL_=Zi%*27V!}xcSbGUgUYW}*dbȌA5Eqq-,αƼ5$ @g\a)l t~u^ "ȾGvKVܤΏΏҏҐ% LKcEtor1z+e; d#GrzLR  _ּv=\fs.8$Y *'w/ ?,ÑfRxIecK zEpQdzU{}=ɟ2s |Lu rGҸo&e3Ҋ?Z~$YϩW{|IO?2w'g ^( Tܑhj94q$!gPy+NUШv)Ou cds^? 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Poverty is associated with lower air-conditioning use and less efficient cooling )] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(options)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.684 599.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(52)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 67.321 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; such conditions can lead to open windows and doors and raise the probability of human-vector contact. Disparities in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income have been associated with intermittent or no access to piped water in unregulated communities \(colonias\) in the U.S.-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico border region)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 117.822 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(65)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 127.459 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; such conditions can necessitate water storage that in turn provides oviposition opportunities for )] TJ ET BT 544.740 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(aegypti)] TJ ET BT 57.684 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Intermittent garbage collection may also contribute to the provision of important oviposition sites along the U.S.-Mexico )] TJ ET BT 26.250 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(border. For example, discarded tires provide ideal habitat for )] TJ ET BT 289.607 550.095 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 338.387 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( due to their dark color, water holding capacity, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(thermal insulation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 102.651 539.698 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(66)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 112.288 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, the condition of housing infrastructure such as door and window screens may be lower in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(impoverished communities)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 141.651 527.793 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(53)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 151.288 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Areas in the southern parts of Texas demonstrated higher rates of poverty than some other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 514.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regions under study \(Fig. 3\). Coupled with the higher levels of travel from areas where transmission is occurring and the history )] TJ ET BT 26.250 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of )] TJ ET BT 37.092 502.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 85.871 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( borne virus outbreaks, this suggests that southern Texas may be a vulnerable region for Zika transmission.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 483.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Even if Zika virus arrives in the United States, transmission can be mitigated and reduced through the use of vector control )] TJ ET BT 26.250 471.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(strategies. As part of our investigation we initially undertook a review of all vector control activities being conducted within these )] TJ ET BT 26.250 459.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fifty cities. Due to the lack of standardization of reporting of )] TJ ET BT 282.041 459.262 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 330.820 459.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-related activities in each jurisdiction we have not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 447.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(presented those results in this paper. It is clear, however, that vector control and public health interventions should consider )] TJ ET BT 26.250 435.453 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(tailoring their messages to the local communities. The provision of geographically referenced )] TJ ET BT 428.866 435.453 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 477.646 435.453 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( data to the public )] TJ ET BT 26.250 423.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(could assist in raising public awareness about the vector and motivate action when neighboring communities have )] TJ ET BT 520.468 423.548 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 411.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(activity)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 56.046 413.150 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(67)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 65.683 411.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 392.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This study has numerous limitations related to the model simulations. We do not account for vector control practices in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations and thus abundance may be overestimated \(as suggested during the off-peak months in Miami and Phoenix in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 368.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(validation\). There is incomplete understanding of how temperature may limit population dynamics at the geographic margins of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 356.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( survival)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 110.782 358.031 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(68)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 120.420 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, where sensitivity to poorly-constrained meteorological thresholds may hamper model performance. For )] TJ ET BT 26.250 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(example, because knowledge of egg survival during winter in marginal areas is limited)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 396.887 346.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(68)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 406.524 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, we artificially introduce eggs into the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations each month, which keeps eggs from becoming extinct in cities that have seasonal )] TJ ET BT 432.133 332.715 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 480.912 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations, but likely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 320.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(causes egg availability/viability to be overestimated. Cryptic habitats that are not represented in models may enhance )] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(environmental suitability during winter; an overwintering )] TJ ET BT 268.459 308.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 317.239 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( population was recently found in Washington, D.C.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 538.340 310.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(38)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 547.977 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(suggesting that )] TJ ET BT 95.085 297.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 122.726 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes are adept at ovipositing in semi-concealed places that stay relatively warm year-round \(e.g., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(subterranean habitats\). Likewise, during the warm season it is likely that mosquitoes are adept at finding suitable microclimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(in sheltered areas that arent explicitly accounted for in the models)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 311.837 274.698 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(29)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 321.475 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, particularly in challenging environments such as desert )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cities where high temperatures and low humidity may otherwise inhibit mosquito survival. The influence of humidity in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations may not be adequately represented, which could be an important issue in arid regions where desiccation may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(substantially impact adult survival)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.921 238.984 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(62)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 180.558 237.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Little is known of the geographic distribution of container characteristics such as type, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 225.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(quantity and degree of shading, all factors that regulate water temperature and amount available for immature development. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 213.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Additionally, the degree and frequency of manual filling of potential container habitats by humans is virtually unknown and may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 201.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be over- or understated in the models. Intra-city climatic variability is not accounted for, which may be important in cites with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 189.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sharp elevation gradients or heterogeneous urban land use patterns. Furthermore, the models do not allow for interaction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(between )] TJ ET BT 65.816 177.953 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 114.595 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and other container dwelling invertebrates, including the competitor )] TJ ET BT 409.396 177.953 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 470.636 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This competitive )] TJ ET BT 26.250 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(interaction has been shown to determine the distribution of )] TJ ET BT 281.505 166.048 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 330.284 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in Florida at scales of less than 5km)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.971 167.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 497.608 169.936 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.018 167.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(69)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 509.655 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, and suggests )] TJ ET BT 26.250 154.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the importance of understanding the local distribution of these mosquitoes in assessing risk. The competitive interaction may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(also affect the seasonality of )] TJ ET BT 151.986 142.239 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 200.765 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( due to increased competition late in the wet season)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 425.132 143.746 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 434.770 146.127 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 437.179 143.746 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(70)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 446.816 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The limitations noted here )] TJ ET BT 26.250 130.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are the primary reason we refer to simulated )] TJ ET BT 220.236 130.334 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 269.015 130.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance as potential abundance. Despite these limitations, our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 118.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(validation indicates that overall the Skeeter Buster and DyMSiM simulations, as well as their ensemble mean, resolve the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 106.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(seasonal cycle of )] TJ ET BT 103.743 106.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 152.522 106.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance in Phoenix and Miami. Importantly, the simulations capture the months of peak )] TJ ET BT 26.250 94.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance in both cities. We also find that Skeeter Buster and DyMSiM have similar seasonal cycles of abundance at most )] TJ ET BT 26.250 82.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. cities \(Figs. S2 and S3\).)] TJ ET BT 26.250 63.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Study limitations not related to the model simulations include incomplete information about travel from areas of ongoing Zika )] TJ ET BT 26.250 51.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission. In particular, our air travel data set does not provide information on thru-travelers proceeding on to secondary )] TJ ET BT 26.250 39.501 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and tertiary destinations from their U.S. port-of-entry. This likely leads to overestimated numbers for large international airports )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 25.215 577.500 751.785 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated in the Southeast and south Texas where local cases of other )] TJ ET BT 334.613 767.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 362.255 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted viruses have been reported )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(previously, a result that is consistent with the suitability mapping studies noted above.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Introduction of the virus into local )] TJ ET BT 171.486 736.167 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 220.265 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations is more likely in cities with high volumes of people arriving from areas )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(where transmission is ongoing \(Fig. 1\). This could include introduction by persons arriving in the U.S. by air, land \(cross-border )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(traffic by vehicles or walking\) and sea \(cruise ship passengers\). Higher risk is thus implied for U.S.-Mexico border cities and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(neighboring areas, where population movement is high, and larger air traffic hubs such as Houston, Los Angeles or Miami. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico, most reported Zika cases are in southern states, however cases have been reported further north in Sinaloa and Nuevo )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Leon by the Health Ministry of Mexico as of 22 February 2016. The potential for introduction in the U.S. may be highest during )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(summer months when )] TJ ET BT 124.862 664.738 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 173.641 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations are abundant, particularly if Zika transmission increases in the northern Mexican )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(states.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Multiple factors determine when and where arboviruses emerge; vector presence is only one factor that needs to be evaluated )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to assess the potential for disease emergence. Socioeconomic conditions that modulate human exposure to vectors play a role )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(in population vulnerability to arboviruses)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 199.654 611.126 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 209.291 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Poverty is associated with lower air-conditioning use and less efficient cooling )] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(options)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.684 599.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(52)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 67.321 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; such conditions can lead to open windows and doors and raise the probability of human-vector contact. Disparities in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income have been associated with intermittent or no access to piped water in unregulated communities \(colonias\) in the U.S.-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico border region)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 117.822 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(65)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 127.459 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; such conditions can necessitate water storage that in turn provides oviposition opportunities for )] TJ ET BT 544.740 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(aegypti)] TJ ET BT 57.684 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Intermittent garbage collection may also contribute to the provision of important oviposition sites along the U.S.-Mexico )] TJ ET BT 26.250 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(border. For example, discarded tires provide ideal habitat for )] TJ ET BT 289.607 550.095 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 338.387 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( due to their dark color, water holding capacity, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(thermal insulation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 102.651 539.698 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(66)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 112.288 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, the condition of housing infrastructure such as door and window screens may be lower in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(impoverished communities)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 141.651 527.793 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(53)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 151.288 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Areas in the southern parts of Texas demonstrated higher rates of poverty than some other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 514.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regions under study \(Fig. 3\). Coupled with the higher levels of travel from areas where transmission is occurring and the history )] TJ ET BT 26.250 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of )] TJ ET BT 37.092 502.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 85.871 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( borne virus outbreaks, this suggests that southern Texas may be a vulnerable region for Zika transmission.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 483.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Even if Zika virus arrives in the United States, transmission can be mitigated and reduced through the use of vector control )] TJ ET BT 26.250 471.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(strategies. As part of our investigation we initially undertook a review of all vector control activities being conducted within these )] TJ ET BT 26.250 459.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fifty cities. Due to the lack of standardization of reporting of )] TJ ET BT 282.041 459.262 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 330.820 459.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-related activities in each jurisdiction we have not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 447.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(presented those results in this paper. It is clear, however, that vector control and public health interventions should consider )] TJ ET BT 26.250 435.453 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(tailoring their messages to the local communities. The provision of geographically referenced )] TJ ET BT 428.866 435.453 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 477.646 435.453 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( data to the public )] TJ ET BT 26.250 423.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(could assist in raising public awareness about the vector and motivate action when neighboring communities have )] TJ ET BT 520.468 423.548 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 411.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(activity)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 56.046 413.150 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(67)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 65.683 411.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 392.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This study has numerous limitations related to the model simulations. We do not account for vector control practices in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations and thus abundance may be overestimated \(as suggested during the off-peak months in Miami and Phoenix in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 368.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(validation\). There is incomplete understanding of how temperature may limit population dynamics at the geographic margins of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 356.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( survival)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 110.782 358.031 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(68)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 120.420 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, where sensitivity to poorly-constrained meteorological thresholds may hamper model performance. For )] TJ ET BT 26.250 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(example, because knowledge of egg survival during winter in marginal areas is limited)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 396.887 346.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(68)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 406.524 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, we artificially introduce eggs into the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations each month, which keeps eggs from becoming extinct in cities that have seasonal )] TJ ET BT 432.133 332.715 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 480.912 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations, but likely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 320.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(causes egg availability/viability to be overestimated. Cryptic habitats that are not represented in models may enhance )] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(environmental suitability during winter; an overwintering )] TJ ET BT 268.459 308.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 317.239 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( population was recently found in Washington, D.C.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 538.340 310.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(38)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 547.977 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(suggesting that )] TJ ET BT 95.085 297.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 122.726 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes are adept at ovipositing in semi-concealed places that stay relatively warm year-round \(e.g., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(subterranean habitats\). Likewise, during the warm season it is likely that mosquitoes are adept at finding suitable microclimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(in sheltered areas that arent explicitly accounted for in the models)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 311.837 274.698 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(29)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 321.475 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, particularly in challenging environments such as desert )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cities where high temperatures and low humidity may otherwise inhibit mosquito survival. The influence of humidity in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations may not be adequately represented, which could be an important issue in arid regions where desiccation may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(substantially impact adult survival)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.921 238.984 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(62)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 180.558 237.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Little is known of the geographic distribution of container characteristics such as type, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 225.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(quantity and degree of shading, all factors that regulate water temperature and amount available for immature development. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 213.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Additionally, the degree and frequency of manual filling of potential container habitats by humans is virtually unknown and may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 201.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be over- or understated in the models. Intra-city climatic variability is not accounted for, which may be important in cites with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 189.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sharp elevation gradients or heterogeneous urban land use patterns. Furthermore, the models do not allow for interaction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(between )] TJ ET BT 65.816 177.953 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 114.595 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and other container dwelling invertebrates, including the competitor )] TJ ET BT 409.396 177.953 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 470.636 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This competitive )] TJ ET BT 26.250 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(interaction has been shown to determine the distribution of )] TJ ET BT 281.505 166.048 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 330.284 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in Florida at scales of less than 5km)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.971 167.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 497.608 169.936 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.018 167.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(69)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 509.655 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, and suggests )] TJ ET BT 26.250 154.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the importance of understanding the local distribution of these mosquitoes in assessing risk. The competitive interaction may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(also affect the seasonality of )] TJ ET BT 151.986 142.239 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 200.765 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( due to increased competition late in the wet season)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 425.132 143.746 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 434.770 146.127 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 437.179 143.746 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(70)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 446.816 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The limitations noted here )] TJ ET BT 26.250 130.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are the primary reason we refer to simulated )] TJ ET BT 220.236 130.334 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 269.015 130.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance as potential abundance. Despite these limitations, our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 118.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(validation indicates that overall the Skeeter Buster and DyMSiM simulations, as well as their ensemble mean, resolve the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 106.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(seasonal cycle of )] TJ ET BT 103.743 106.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 152.522 106.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance in Phoenix and Miami. Importantly, the simulations capture the months of peak )] TJ ET BT 26.250 94.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance in both cities. We also find that Skeeter Buster and DyMSiM have similar seasonal cycles of abundance at most )] TJ ET BT 26.250 82.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. cities \(Figs. S2 and S3\).)] TJ ET BT 26.250 63.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Study limitations not related to the model simulations include incomplete information about travel from areas of ongoing Zika )] TJ ET BT 26.250 51.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission. In particular, our air travel data set does not provide information on thru-travelers proceeding on to secondary )] TJ ET BT 26.250 39.501 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and tertiary destinations from their U.S. port-of-entry. This likely leads to overestimated numbers for large international airports )] TJ ET Q q 15.000 25.215 577.500 751.785 re W n 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 26.250 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulated in the Southeast and south Texas where local cases of other )] TJ ET BT 334.613 767.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 362.255 767.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted viruses have been reported )] TJ ET BT 26.250 755.571 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(previously, a result that is consistent with the suitability mapping studies noted above.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Introduction of the virus into local )] TJ ET BT 171.486 736.167 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 220.265 736.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations is more likely in cities with high volumes of people arriving from areas )] TJ ET BT 26.250 724.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(where transmission is ongoing \(Fig. 1\). This could include introduction by persons arriving in the U.S. by air, land \(cross-border )] TJ ET BT 26.250 712.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(traffic by vehicles or walking\) and sea \(cruise ship passengers\). Higher risk is thus implied for U.S.-Mexico border cities and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(neighboring areas, where population movement is high, and larger air traffic hubs such as Houston, Los Angeles or Miami. In )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico, most reported Zika cases are in southern states, however cases have been reported further north in Sinaloa and Nuevo )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Leon by the Health Ministry of Mexico as of 22 February 2016. The potential for introduction in the U.S. may be highest during )] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(summer months when )] TJ ET BT 124.862 664.738 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 173.641 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations are abundant, particularly if Zika transmission increases in the northern Mexican )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(states.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 633.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Multiple factors determine when and where arboviruses emerge; vector presence is only one factor that needs to be evaluated )] TJ ET BT 26.250 621.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(to assess the potential for disease emergence. Socioeconomic conditions that modulate human exposure to vectors play a role )] TJ ET BT 26.250 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(in population vulnerability to arboviruses)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 199.654 611.126 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(23)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 209.291 609.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Poverty is associated with lower air-conditioning use and less efficient cooling )] TJ ET BT 26.250 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(options)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 57.684 599.222 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(52)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 67.321 597.714 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; such conditions can lead to open windows and doors and raise the probability of human-vector contact. Disparities in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 585.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(income have been associated with intermittent or no access to piped water in unregulated communities \(colonias\) in the U.S.-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Mexico border region)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 117.822 575.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(65)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 127.459 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(; such conditions can necessitate water storage that in turn provides oviposition opportunities for )] TJ ET BT 544.740 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(aegypti)] TJ ET BT 57.684 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Intermittent garbage collection may also contribute to the provision of important oviposition sites along the U.S.-Mexico )] TJ ET BT 26.250 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(border. For example, discarded tires provide ideal habitat for )] TJ ET BT 289.607 550.095 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 338.387 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( due to their dark color, water holding capacity, and )] TJ ET BT 26.250 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(thermal insulation)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 102.651 539.698 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(66)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 112.288 538.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Additionally, the condition of housing infrastructure such as door and window screens may be lower in )] TJ ET BT 26.250 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(impoverished communities)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 141.651 527.793 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(53)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 151.288 526.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Areas in the southern parts of Texas demonstrated higher rates of poverty than some other )] TJ ET BT 26.250 514.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(regions under study \(Fig. 3\). Coupled with the higher levels of travel from areas where transmission is occurring and the history )] TJ ET BT 26.250 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(of )] TJ ET BT 37.092 502.476 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 85.871 502.476 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( borne virus outbreaks, this suggests that southern Texas may be a vulnerable region for Zika transmission.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 483.072 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Even if Zika virus arrives in the United States, transmission can be mitigated and reduced through the use of vector control )] TJ ET BT 26.250 471.167 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(strategies. As part of our investigation we initially undertook a review of all vector control activities being conducted within these )] TJ ET BT 26.250 459.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(fifty cities. Due to the lack of standardization of reporting of )] TJ ET BT 282.041 459.262 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 330.820 459.262 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-related activities in each jurisdiction we have not )] TJ ET BT 26.250 447.357 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(presented those results in this paper. It is clear, however, that vector control and public health interventions should consider )] TJ ET BT 26.250 435.453 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(tailoring their messages to the local communities. The provision of geographically referenced )] TJ ET BT 428.866 435.453 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 477.646 435.453 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( data to the public )] TJ ET BT 26.250 423.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(could assist in raising public awareness about the vector and motivate action when neighboring communities have )] TJ ET BT 520.468 423.548 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 26.250 411.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(activity)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 56.046 413.150 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(67)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 65.683 411.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 392.238 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(This study has numerous limitations related to the model simulations. We do not account for vector control practices in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 380.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations and thus abundance may be overestimated \(as suggested during the off-peak months in Miami and Phoenix in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 368.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(validation\). There is incomplete understanding of how temperature may limit population dynamics at the geographic margins of )] TJ ET BT 26.250 356.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 75.029 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( survival)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 110.782 358.031 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(68)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 120.420 356.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, where sensitivity to poorly-constrained meteorological thresholds may hamper model performance. For )] TJ ET BT 26.250 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(example, because knowledge of egg survival during winter in marginal areas is limited)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 396.887 346.127 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(68)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 406.524 344.619 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, we artificially introduce eggs into the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations each month, which keeps eggs from becoming extinct in cities that have seasonal )] TJ ET BT 432.133 332.715 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 480.912 332.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations, but likely )] TJ ET BT 26.250 320.810 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(causes egg availability/viability to be overestimated. Cryptic habitats that are not represented in models may enhance )] TJ ET BT 26.250 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(environmental suitability during winter; an overwintering )] TJ ET BT 268.459 308.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 317.239 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( population was recently found in Washington, D.C.)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 538.340 310.412 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(38)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 547.977 308.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(suggesting that )] TJ ET BT 95.085 297.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 122.726 297.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes are adept at ovipositing in semi-concealed places that stay relatively warm year-round \(e.g., )] TJ ET BT 26.250 285.096 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(subterranean habitats\). Likewise, during the warm season it is likely that mosquitoes are adept at finding suitable microclimates )] TJ ET BT 26.250 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(in sheltered areas that arent explicitly accounted for in the models)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 311.837 274.698 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(29)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 321.475 273.191 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, particularly in challenging environments such as desert )] TJ ET BT 26.250 261.286 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(cities where high temperatures and low humidity may otherwise inhibit mosquito survival. The influence of humidity in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 249.381 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(simulations may not be adequately represented, which could be an important issue in arid regions where desiccation may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 237.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(substantially impact adult survival)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 170.921 238.984 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(62)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 180.558 237.477 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. Little is known of the geographic distribution of container characteristics such as type, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 225.572 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(quantity and degree of shading, all factors that regulate water temperature and amount available for immature development. )] TJ ET BT 26.250 213.667 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Additionally, the degree and frequency of manual filling of potential container habitats by humans is virtually unknown and may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 201.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(be over- or understated in the models. Intra-city climatic variability is not accounted for, which may be important in cites with )] TJ ET BT 26.250 189.858 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(sharp elevation gradients or heterogeneous urban land use patterns. Furthermore, the models do not allow for interaction )] TJ ET BT 26.250 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(between )] TJ ET BT 65.816 177.953 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 114.595 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( and other container dwelling invertebrates, including the competitor )] TJ ET BT 409.396 177.953 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. albopictus)] TJ ET BT 470.636 177.953 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. This competitive )] TJ ET BT 26.250 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(interaction has been shown to determine the distribution of )] TJ ET BT 281.505 166.048 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 330.284 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( in Florida at scales of less than 5km)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 487.971 167.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 497.608 169.936 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 500.018 167.555 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(69)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 509.655 166.048 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(, and suggests )] TJ ET BT 26.250 154.143 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(the importance of understanding the local distribution of these mosquitoes in assessing risk. The competitive interaction may )] TJ ET BT 26.250 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(also affect the seasonality of )] TJ ET BT 151.986 142.239 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 200.765 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( due to increased competition late in the wet season)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 425.132 143.746 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(41)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 434.770 146.127 Td /F1 8.7 Tf [(,)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 437.179 143.746 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(70)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 446.816 142.239 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. The limitations noted here )] TJ ET BT 26.250 130.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(are the primary reason we refer to simulated )] TJ ET BT 220.236 130.334 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 269.015 130.334 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance as potential abundance. Despite these limitations, our )] TJ ET BT 26.250 118.429 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(validation indicates that overall the Skeeter Buster and DyMSiM simulations, as well as their ensemble mean, resolve the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 106.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(seasonal cycle of )] TJ ET BT 103.743 106.524 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 152.522 106.524 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( abundance in Phoenix and Miami. Importantly, the simulations capture the months of peak )] TJ ET BT 26.250 94.620 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(abundance in both cities. We also find that Skeeter Buster and DyMSiM have similar seasonal cycles of abundance at most )] TJ ET BT 26.250 82.715 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(U.S. cities \(Figs. S2 and S3\).)] TJ ET BT 26.250 63.310 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Study limitations not related to the model simulations include incomplete information about travel from areas of ongoing Zika )] TJ ET BT 26.250 51.405 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(transmission. In particular, our air travel data set does not provide information on thru-travelers proceeding on to secondary )] TJ ET BT 26.250 39.501 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(and tertiary destinations from their U.S. port-of-entry. 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Finally, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(our study region does not include non-contiguous U.S. states and territories where risk for transmission of )] TJ ET BT 484.149 731.762 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 511.790 731.762 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted )] TJ ET BT 26.250 719.857 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(viruses is high: Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and areas in the South Pacific.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(Though we do not explicitly address whether the potential abundance of )] TJ ET BT 338.962 700.452 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 387.741 700.452 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( may be lower or higher than normal in the )] TJ ET BT 26.250 688.548 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(forthcoming months of 2016 due to anomalous meteorological conditions \(perhaps linked to the strong El Nio conditions )] TJ ET BT 26.250 676.643 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(occurring at the time of writing\), it is noteworthy that a seasonal climate forecast initialized in February 2016 and valid for June-)] TJ ET BT 26.250 664.738 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(August 2016 suggests a 40-45% probability of above-normal temperatures over the entire contiguous U.S. for the upcoming )] TJ ET BT 26.250 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(summer of 2016)] TJ ET 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg BT 96.694 654.341 Td /F4 8.7 Tf [(71)] TJ ET 0.271 0.267 0.267 rg BT 106.331 652.833 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(. 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There is a need for enhanced, long-term, nationally-coordinated, )] TJ ET BT 26.250 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(local-level surveillance of both )] TJ ET BT 159.006 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 186.647 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( mosquitoes and )] TJ ET BT 260.894 573.905 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Aedes)] TJ ET BT 288.535 573.905 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(-transmitted viruses, particularly in areas where simulations )] TJ ET BT 26.250 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(indicate )] TJ ET BT 62.559 562.000 Td /F5 9.8 Tf [(Ae. aegypti)] TJ ET BT 111.338 562.000 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [( populations may be high and coincide with more frequent travel between the U.S. and countries where Zika )] TJ ET BT 26.250 550.095 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(is circulating.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 513.493 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Competing Interests)] TJ ET BT 26.250 493.539 Td /F1 9.8 Tf [(The authors declare no competing interests.)] TJ ET BT 26.250 456.936 Td /F4 12.0 Tf [(Appendix)] TJ ET 0.965 0.965 0.965 rg 26.250 -169.244 555.000 615.750 re f 0.267 0.267 0.267 rg 0.267 0.267 0.267 RG 26.250 446.506 m 581.250 446.506 l 581.250 445.756 l 26.250 445.756 l f q 450.000 0 0 600.000 35.250 -163.244 cm /I9 Do Q q 35.250 -169.244 537.000 0.000 re W n Q Q q 450.000 0 0 600.000 35.250 -163.244 cm /I9 Do Q q 0.000 0.000 0.000 rg BT 291.710 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(11)] TJ ET BT 25.000 19.825 Td /F1 11.0 Tf [(PLOS Currents Outbreaks)] TJ ET Q endstream endobj 761 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 762 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 96.6937 653.5389 106.3311 662.3573 ] >> endobj 762 0 obj << /Type /Action >> endobj 763 0 obj << /Type /Annot /Subtype /Link /A 764 0 R /Border [0 0 0] /H /I /Rect [ 35.2500 -163.2443 485.2500 436.7557 ] >> endobj 764 0 obj << /Type /Action /S /URI /URI (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2016/02/FigS1-1.jpg) >> endobj 765 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 600 /Height 800 /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /Filter /DCTDecode /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 57972>> stream JFIF``;CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v80), quality = 90 C     C    X" }!1AQa"q2#BR$3br %&'()*456789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz w!1AQaq"2B #3Rbr $4%&'()*56789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz ?Qϵ Rړ9ϵ.hϵ-jZ(2)sIZLQj\њLQj\@ j3KFh3F}sI@ jLR3GFsGj(4f (4~~Q@Q@E4f( Eњ3@Q(4g(3@E4QI\ (~Q(())s@J(4f QҌњ()3K? ? 3Fh((~~fE4~Q(3Fhϥ4fLњ)}h3FzQ@ 3G/&h-@ 3KE&h-4P~~f((QQFhϵ4f FyŒE (4P~Q3@h(Fhњ3Fh.hњ(4gڌM>Q3@h4f QFh)sFhњLQj\њJZ3E%-4R3Fi2)s@RdQ@ E&h-ZZJ3FE/E&is@hȥf"ȥ4dQ@4f EfGQFEQEQEPEPEq@dQҀ (QAEdQPqEdQGf83ERq@ Fh((4f(3GdPA4(QPEf (Ҋ2("2(88ZLQE-&E N9qGQ@qEqGZN(ZN((((( ( 88(((w((( ( 2( 8(ȣ4Q@hȢ(3KEdQ? 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