We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.
West Nile Virus (WNV) infection has been reported in over 300 species of birds and mammals. Raptors such as eagles, hawks and falcons are remarkably susceptible, but reports of WNV infection in Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are rare and reports of WNV infection in grebes (Podicipediformes) even rarer. We report an unusually large wild bird mortality event involving between 15,000-20,000 Eared Grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) and over 40 Bald Eagles around the Great Salt Lake, Utah, in November-December 2013. Mortality in grebes was first reported in early November during a period when the area was unseasonably warm and the grebes were beginning to gather and stage prior to migration. Ten out of ten Eared Grebes collected during this period were WNV RT-PCR and/or isolation positive. This is the first report of WNV infection in Eared Grebes and the associated mortality event is matched in scale only by the combined outbreaks in American White Pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) colonies in the north central states in 2002-2003. We cannot be sure that all of the grebes were infected by mosquito transmission; some may have become infected through contact with WNV shed orally or cloacally from other infected grebes. Beginning in early December, Bald Eagles in the Great Salt Lake area were observed to display neurological signs such as body tremors, limb paralysis and lethargy. At least 43 Bald Eagles had died by the end of the month. Nine of nine Bald Eagles examined were infected with WNV. To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest single raptor mortality event since WNV became endemic in the USA. Because the majority of the eagles affected were found after onset of below-freezing temperatures, we suggest at least some of the Bald Eagles were infected with WNV via consumption of infected Eared Grebes or horizontal transmission at roost sites.
We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.