Genetically Modified (GM) Mosquito Use to Reduce Mosquito-Transmitted Disease in the US: A Community Opinion Survey

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Introduction: Mosquito-borne infectious diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and now Zika, pose a public health threat to the US, particularly Florida, the Gulf Coast states, and Hawaii. Recent autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya in Florida, the recent dengue outbreak in Hawaii, and the potential for future local spread of Zika in the US, has led to the consideration of novel approaches to mosquito management. One such novel approach, the release of sterile genetically modified mosquitoes, has been proposed as a possible intervention, and a trial release of GM mosquitoes is being considered in one Florida community. However, this proposal has been controversial. The objective of this research was to increase understanding of community knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding mosquito control and GM mosquitoes.  

Methods: An 18-question self-administered survey was mailed to all households in the identified Key West, Florida neighborhood where a GM mosquito trial has been proposed. This survey was fielded between July 20, 2015 and November 1, 2015. The main outcome variable was opposition to the use of GM mosquitoes. Measures included demographic information and opinions on mosquitoes, mosquito control, and vector-borne diseases.  

Results: A majority of survey respondents did not support use of GM mosquitoes as a mosquito control method.

Discussion: Reasons for opposition included general fears about possible harmful impacts of this intervention, specific worries about human and animal health impacts from the GM mosquitoes, and environmental concerns about potential negative effects on the ecosystem. Residents were more likely to oppose GM mosquito use if they had a low perception of the potential risks posed by diseases like dengue and chikungunya, if they were female, and if they were less concerned about the need to control mosquitoes in general. These findings suggest a need for new approaches to risk communication, including educational efforts surrounding mosquito control and reciprocal dialogue between residents and public health officials.

Zika Virus, Elevation, and Transmission Risk

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Introduction: Zika virus has appeared in the Americas in the form of a major outbreak, and is now known to cause birth defects when pregnant women are infected. As a result, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued travel guidelines, in the form of an elevational risk definition: destinations below 2000m are considered as at-risk.

Methods: We explored the distribution of known Zika virus vector mosquito species in relation to climatic conditions, elevation, latitude, and air traffic connections to the United States.

Results: In view of the tropical and subtropical nature of the mosquito species that are the primary Zika virus vectors, we point out that climate varies rather dramatically with respect to elevation and latitude, such that a single elevational criterion will be a poor predictor of potential for transmission.

Discussion: We suggest an initial adjustment would consider latitude in addition to elevation; a more definitive, quantitative analysis of risk would consider variables of ecology, climate, human condition, and connectivity of areas.

Unintended Pregnancies in Brazil – A Challenge for the Recommendation to Delay Pregnancy Due to Zika

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Figure 2.

Because of the potential link between the ongoing Zika virus outbreak and a surge in the number of cases of congenital microcephaly, officials in Latin America have recommended that women postpone pregnancy until this association is firmly established or the outbreak subsides. However, in all these countries a large proportion of babies are still born out of unplanned pregnancies. Teenage girls are particularly at high risk, as they often lack access to preventive contraception methods, or the knowledge to use them appropriately. To gauge the magnitude of the barriers preventing the implementation of such a recommendation in Brazil, the country so far most affected by the Zika epidemic, we evaluated pregnancy rates in teenage girls, and their spatial heterogeneity in the country, in recent years (2012-2014). Nearly 20% of children born in Brazil today (~560,000 live births) are by teenage mothers. Birth incidence is far higher in the tropical and poorer northern states. However, in absolute terms most births occur in the populous southeastern states, matching to a large extent the geographic distribution of dengue (an indicator of suitable climatic and sociodemographic conditions for the circulation of Aedes mosquitoes). These findings indicate that recommendation to delay pregnancy will leave over half a million pregnant adolescents in Brazil vulnerable to infection every year if not accompanied by effective education and real access to prevention.

Estimating Drivers of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in its Invasion of the Americas

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Background
Chikungunya is an emerging arbovirus that has caused explosive outbreaks in Africa and Asia for decades and invaded the Americas just over a year ago. During this ongoing invasion, it has spread to 45 countries where it has been transmitted autochthonously, infecting nearly 1.3 million people in total.

Methods
Here, we made use of weekly, country-level case reports to infer relationships between transmission and two putative climatic drivers: temperature and precipitation averaged across each country on a monthly basis. To do so, we used a TSIR model that enabled us to infer a parametric relationship between climatic drivers and transmission potential, and we applied a new method for incorporating a probabilistic description of the serial interval distribution into the TSIR framework.

Results
We found significant relationships between transmission and linear and quadratic terms for temperature and precipitation and a linear term for log incidence during the previous pathogen generation. The lattermost suggests that case numbers three to four weeks ago are largely predictive of current case numbers. This effect is quite nonlinear at the country level, however, due to an estimated mixing parameter of 0.74. Relationships between transmission and the climatic variables that we estimated were biologically plausible and in line with expectations.

Conclusions
Our analysis suggests that autochthonous transmission of Chikungunya in the Americas can be correlated successfully with putative climatic drivers, even at the coarse scale of countries and using long-term average climate data. Overall, this provides a preliminary suggestion that successfully forecasting the future trajectory of a Chikungunya outbreak and the receptivity of virgin areas may be possible. Our results also provide tentative estimates of timeframes and areas of greatest risk, and our extension of the TSIR model provides a novel tool for modeling vector-borne disease transmission.