We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based estimates of influenza activity from Google Flu Trends for 2004-2005, 2007-2008 and 2012-2013 flu seasons. In some cases, the peak could be forecasted 5-6 weeks ahead. This study adds to existing resources for influenza forecasting and the proposed method can be used in conjunction with other approaches in an ensemble framework.
Author Profile
Madhav Mararthe
Institution: Virginia Tech
Department: Virginia Bio-informatics Institute and Dept of Computer Science
City: Blacksburg
State: VA
Country: USA
Madhav Marathe is a Professor of Computer Science and Deputy Director of the Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bio-informatics Institute, Virginia Tech. Current research interests include, Computational Epidemiology, Network Science, High Performance Computing, Socio-technical systems