Public Knowledge, Perception and Source of Information on Ebola Virus Disease – Lagos, Nigeria; September, 2014

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Background: The first ever outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Nigeria was declared in July, 2014. Level of public knowledge, perception and adequacy of information on EVD were unknown. We assessed the public preparedness level to adopt disease preventive behavior which is premised on appropriate knowledge, perception and adequate information.

Methods: We enrolled 5,322 respondents in a community-based cross-sectional study. We used interviewer-administered questionnaire to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics, EVD–related knowledge, perception and source of information. We performed univariate and bivariate data analysis using Epi-Info software setting p-value of 0.05 as cut-off for statistical significance.

Results: Mean age of respondents was 34 years (± 11.4 years), 52.3% were males. Forty one percent possessed satisfactory general knowledge; 44% and 43.1% possessed satisfactory knowledge on mode of spread and preventive measures, respectively. Residing in EVD cases districts, male respondents and possessing at least secondary education were positively associated with satisfactory general knowledge (p-value: 0.01, 0.001 and 0.000004, respectively). Seventy one percent perceived EVD as a public health problem while 61% believed they cannot contract the disease. Sixty two percent and 64% of respondents will not shake hands and hug a successfully treated EVD patient respectively. Only 2.2% of respondents practice good hand-washing practice. Television (68.8%) and radio (55.0%) are the most common sources of information on EVD.

Conclusions: Gaps in EVD-related knowledge and perception exist. Targeted public health messages to raise knowledge level, correct misconception and discourage stigmatization should be widely disseminated, with television and radio as media of choice.

High-resolution Genomic Surveillance of 2014 Ebolavirus Using Shared Subclonal Variants

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BACKGROUND: Viral outbreaks, such as the 2014 ebolavirus, can spread rapidly and have complex evolutionary dynamics, including coinfection and bulk transmission of multiple viral populations. Genomic surveillance can be hindered when the spread of the outbreak exceeds the evolutionary rate, in which case consensus approaches will have limited resolution. Deep sequencing of infected patients can identify genomic variants present in intrahost populations at subclonal frequencies (i.e. <50%). Shared subclonal variants (SSVs) can provide additional phylogenetic resolution and inform about disease transmission patterns.

METHODS: We use metrics from population genetics to analyze data from the 2014 ebolavirus outbreak in Sierra Leone and identify phylogenetic signal arising from SSVs. We use methods derived from information theory to measure a lower bound on transmission bottleneck size.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We identify several SSV that shed light on phylogenetic relationships not captured by consensus-based analyses. We find that transmission bottleneck size is larger than one founder population, yet significantly smaller than the intrahost effective population. Our results demonstrate the important role of shared subclonal variants in genomic surveillance.

The UCSC Ebola Genome Portal

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Background:
With the Ebola epidemic raging out of control in West Africa, there has been a flurry of research into the Ebola virus, resulting in the generation of much genomic data.

Methods:
In response to the clear need for tools that integrate multiple strands of research around molecular sequences, we have created the University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) Ebola Genome Browser, an adaptation of our popular UCSC Genome Browser web tool, which can be used to view the Ebola virus genome sequence from GenBank and nearly 30 annotation tracks generated by mapping external data to the reference sequence. Significant annotations include a multiple alignment comprising 102 Ebola genomes from the current outbreak, 56 from previous outbreaks, and 2 Marburg genomes as an outgroup; a gene track curated by NCBI; protein annotations curated by UniProt and antibody-binding epitopes curated by IEDB. We have extended the Genome Browser’s multiple alignment color-coding scheme to distinguish mutations resulting from non-synonymous coding changes, synonymous changes, or changes in untranslated regions.

Discussion:
Our Ebola Genome portal at http://genome.ucsc.edu/ebolaPortal/ links to the Ebola virus Genome Browser and an aggregate of useful information, including a collection of Ebola antibodies we are curating.

Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia

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Background: An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts.

Methods: We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients.

Findings: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic.

Interpretation: Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

Conservancy of mAb Epitopes in Ebolavirus Glycoproteins of Previous and 2014 Outbreaks

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Background: Several monoclonal antibodies (mAb) are being evaluated as treatment options for the current 2014 Ebola outbreak. But they were derived from and tested for protection against the older 1976 Mayinga or 1995 Kikwit Zaire Ebolaviruses (EBOV). The EBOV sequences reported for the current outbreak contain several mutations whose significance remained to be established.

Methods: We analyzed sequence and structural conservation of the Ebolavirus glycoprotein (GP) epitopes for all experimentally identified protective mAbs published to date.

Results: The conservancy analysis of protective mAb epitopes in the Ebolavirus glycoprotein sequences spanning all Ebola virus lineages since 1976 showed that conservancy within the Zaire EBOV lineage was high, with only one immunodominant epitope of mAb 13F6-1-2 acquiring two novel mutations in the 2014 outbreak that might potentially change the antibody specificity and neutralization activity. However, the conservation to other Ebola viruses was unexpectedly low.

Conclusion: Low conservancy of Zaire EBOV mAb epitopes to other EBOV lineages suggests that these epitopes are not indispensable for viral fitness, and that alternative mAbs could be developed to broadly target all EBOV. However, average percent sequence identity of the epitopes for mAbs used in current cocktails to the Zaire EBOV is high with only one epitope differing in the 2014 outbreak. These data bode well for general usefulness of these antibodies in the context of the current outbreak.

Phylodynamic Analysis of Ebola Virus in the 2014 Sierra Leone Epidemic

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Background: The Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic in Western Africa is the largest in recorded history and control efforts have so far failed to stem the rapid growth in the number of infections. Mathematical models serve a key role in estimating epidemic growth rates and the reproduction number (R0) from surveillance data and, recently, molecular sequence data. Phylodynamic analysis of existing EBOV time-stamped sequence data may provide independent estimates of the unobserved number of infections, reveal recent epidemiological history, and provide insight into selective pressures acting upon viral genes.

Methods: We fit a series mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics to phylogenies estimated from 78 whole EBOV genomes collected from distinct patients in May and June of 2014 in Sierra Leone, and perform evolutionary analysis on these genomes combined with closely related EBOV genomes from previous outbreaks. Two analyses are conducted with values of the latent period that have been used in recent modelling efforts. We also examined the EBOV sequences for evidence of possible episodic adaptive molecular evolution during the 2014 outbreak.

Results: We find evidence for adaptive evolution affecting L and GP protein coding regions of the EBOV genome, which is unlikely to bias molecular clock and phylodynamic analyses. We estimate R0=2.40 (95% HPD:1.54-3.87 ) if the mean latent period is 5.3 days, and R0=3.81, (95% HPD:2.47-6.3) if the mean latent period is 12.7 days. The estimated coefficient of variation (CV) of the number of transmissions per infected host is very high, and a large proportion of infections yield no transmissions.

Conclusions: Estimates of R0 are sensitive to the unknown latent infectious period which can not be reliably estimated from genetic data alone. EBOV phylogenies show significant evidence for superspreading and extreme variance in the number of transmissions per infected individual during the early epidemic in Sierra Leone.

Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia

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Background: An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts.

Methods: We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients.

Findings: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic.

Interpretation: Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

On the Quarantine Period for Ebola Virus

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Background:
21 days has been regarded as the appropriate quarantine period for holding individuals potentially exposed to Ebola Virus (EV) to reduce risk of contagion. There does not appear to be a systematic discussion of the basis for this period.

Methods:
The prior estimates for incubation time to EV were examined, along with data on the first 9 months of the current outbreak. These provided estimates of the distribution of incubation times.

Results:
A 21 day period for quarantine may result in the release of individuals with a 0.2 – 12% risk of release prior to full opportunity for the incubation to proceed. It is suggested that a detailed cost-benefit assessment, including considering full transmission risks, needs to occur in order to determine the appropriate quarantine period for potentially exposed individuals.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Guinea 2014 EBOV Ebolavirus Outbreak

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Members of the genus Ebolavirus have caused outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever in humans in Africa. The most recent outbreak in Guinea, which began in February of 2014, is still ongoing. Recently published analyses of sequences from this outbreak suggest that the outbreak in Guinea is caused by a divergent lineage of Zaire ebolavirus. We report evidence that points to the same Zaire ebolavirus lineage that has previously caused outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo and Gabon as the culprit behind the outbreak in Guinea.